NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
With the 2024 NFL Draft in our rearview, we can now look ahead to the upcoming season and begin to evaluate the incoming rookies as to what our expectations of them should be. One of the major questions that those in the know began to ask almost immediately is “Who has the inside track to be this season’s Offensive Rookie of the Year?” The award has a deep history behind it. Of the 57 OROTY Awards 35 have gone to running backs. But as the game has evolved we have seen the award start to shift toward quarterbacks and wide receivers, with only six running backs taking home the prize over the last 20 seasons, and with Saquon Barkley being the last one to do it in 2018. Since then, there have been three quarterbacks and two wide receivers. It seems that if a QB comes out and plays well they have a slight advantage as the most important position in football, but with 11 of each winning the award since its inception, it’s hardly conclusive. As for this year, the cream of the crop resides with the QBs and WRs. Let’s look closer to see who might have the advantage and who could have an outside chance to surprise us all.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
- Caleb Williams +225
- Marvin Harrison Jr. +600
- Jayden Daniels +700
- J.J. McCarthy +1100
- Malik Nabers +1100
- Rome Odunze +1200
- Drake Maye +1400
- Xavier Worthy +1600
- Bo Nix +2000
- Brock Bowers +2000
- Jonathon Brooks +2000
- Brian Thomas Jr. +2200
- Ladd McConkey +2500
If you’re interested in getting in on some of these rookie-of-the-year odds, there are many great sites to choose from. Bovada is a great site, but I highly recommend researching which sportsbooks offer the best bonuses, they’re constantly changing. You always want to learn which sportsbooks are available in your state/province. As always, remember to use your game sense and wager responsibly.
The Favorite
Caleb Williams (+225) is the odds-on favorite to take home the prize and with good reason. He has a lot of talent and is entering possibly the best situation we’ve ever seen a rookie signal caller fall into. He is an explosive, highlight-reel player who will have all the motivation in the world to succeed, and an organization and coaching staff have invested in him, knowing that his success is directly linked to their job security. Still, in the history of the award, only six players who were the No. 1 pick in the draft went on to win the award. Williams could very well be the seventh if he is who so many say he is. Williams is believed to be a generational talent who will have all the tools and pieces in place to realize that potential. It might not be easy or smooth the entire way, but with his ability and situation, it’s easy to see why he is the favorite, even though No. 1 picks don’t have a great track record in doing so. Though, I prefer the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Jayden Daniels (+700.) Daniels provides a similar amount of explosiveness and upside to Williams, but he’s worth nearly three times the payout. That seems like an oddly large discrepancy to exist between players with similar pedigree and potential. Others favor Arizona Cardinals Marvin Harrison Jr. (+600), but with four quarterbacks being taken in the top five it may be hard for a skill-position player to pull off the award. However, the unlikelihood is built into their odds.
Bold Prediction Long Shot
Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. (+2200) has to be mentioned here, as he is one of my favorite long-shot choices for the award. Yes, it will be an uphill climb for him to have the type of performance this season that will garner him the attention necessary, but if he can find some chemistry with Trevor Lawrence, he could become a go-to target for the fourth-year veteran and push for 1200-1400 receiving yards. This would surpass Garrett Wilson’s 1103-yard season and put him up with Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Puka Nacua. The latter two lost to Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud respectively. So there is a path for Brian Thomas Jr. to reign victorious, albeit an unlikely path. But I must also mention Bills WR Keon Coleman (+2800) here. While there is a lot of mid-tier veteran presence on the Bills, I don’t see the talent currently on the roster stopping Coleman from climbing the depth chart quickly. Coleman could make some noise this year with Josh Allen as his QB. My bold prediction is that Coleman will become Allen’s favorite target and be the second-best rookie wide receiver this year, surpassing 1,000 yards receiving and catching five touchdowns.
The preseason could go a long way to impacting the odds of some of these players but before seeing them play a single snap the history of the No. 1 pick and the OROTY Award scares me a bit for Williams. This means I see Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jayden Daniels being the most likely to take home the award, but it sure is tempting to take the odds on a player like Brian Thomas Jr. or Keon Coleman, with Coleman getting the slight edge for me because I’m a bigger believer in Josh Allen and the Bills offense than I am in Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars.
