Rashod Bateman Fantasy
Before the 2021 NFL Draft, Rashod Bateman’s profile intrigued me. Although I hoped Bateman would land in an offense with more passing opportunities, that doesn’t mean we should overlook him in redraft and dynasty leagues. It doesn’t seem that many, if at all, in the dynasty community worry about Bateman given his prospect profile. However, in redraft leagues, Bateman may not seem as exciting with the Ravens’ low volume passing offense plus the addition of Sammy Watkins with Air Yards monster Marquise Brown. After digging into the data, my thoughts and takeaways changed with Bateman. That said, let’s dive into Bateman’s fantasy football forecast.
Quick Recap
As a freshman at Minnesota, Rashod Bateman played immediately alongside current Buccaneers wide receiver Tyler Johnson. Bateman finished second on the team in receiving yards in 2018 and 2019. Then he led the Golden Gophers in the short 2020 season. In 2019, Bateman reached career bests with 60 catches on 93 targets, 1,219 receiving yards, and 11 receiving touchdowns. Bateman earned a high 35.7% college target share (98th-percentile) during his college career with a high 18.8 Breakout Age (93rd-percentile). Furthermore, Bateman ranked in the 81st-percentile with a 40% College Dominator, which means he accounted for 40% of the team’s receiving yards and touchdowns.
When looking at the data, Rashod Bateman checks several boxes. However, the landing spot is worrisome when the Ravens drafted Bateman at the end of the first round at No. 27 overall. He was the fifth wide receiver drafted in the 2021 NFL Draft behind Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, and Kadarius Toney.
In the table above, we see that Rashod Bateman earned a decent market share in 2018. However, Tyler Johnson earned a higher market share in both seasons playing alongside Bateman. Bateman finished with a season-long 25.9% market share in 2018 and Johnson ended with a 43% market share. Here’s a look at the 2019 season with Johnson once again.
This is where we salivate – Bateman boasted a 37% market share while Johnson had a 40% market in 2019. Pretty darn close to each other. One other aspect we’ll note – Minnesota averaged 209 passing yards per game in 2018 and then 253 passing yards per game in 2019. That’s important to note that Bateman produced even with weak quarterback play and passing volume. In 2018 and 2019, Minnesota finished with a stingy defense and run-focused team, which related to the low passing production. Does that sound familiar? Oh, Bateman’s current NFL team.
Skill Set
At 6-feet and 190-pounds, Rashod Bateman ran a 4.48 40-yard dash at his pro day that translated into a 93.0 Speed Score (47th-percentile). That’s not a great Speed Score that takes into account a player’s size-adjusted speed. However, speed isn’t the primary aspect to consider with wide receivers. The rest of Bateman’s workout metrics looked mediocre, but take that with a grain of salt because his production, film, and prospect profile speaks for itself.
Rashod Bateman: 90.5 PFF Grade at outside receiver since 2019 (1st in the Big 10)
Lamar has his WR1 😎 pic.twitter.com/B50lRHF0HE
— PFF (@PFF) April 30, 2021
When you watch Bateman play, he often broke tackles, made contested catches, and created separation on his routes. Outside of the weak Speed Score, Burst Score, and workout metrics, Bateman looks like one of the top wide receiver prospects in 2021. Per Matt Waldman’s Rookie Scouting Profile, Bateman checks several boxes – deep threat, ability to create yards after the catch, and a red-zone weapon. Waldman notes that Bateman can play all over the field, meaning he can make plays on the outside and in the middle of the field.
Landing Spot
With one of the better college prospect profiles, Rashod Bateman landed with the Ravens. This is worrisome because the Ravens ranked last in Team Pass Plays Per Game in 2019 and 2020 with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. Meanwhile, in 2020, the Ravens ranked 2nd to last with a 2.07 Pace of Play. They also led the league in Game Script, meaning they played with a lead quite often, which made sense seeing their low passing opportunities.
That said, Bateman and the receivers in the Ravens offense may need to rely on efficiency with hopes of the passing volume increasing, even just slightly. Often efficient quarterbacks pair with efficient pass catchers. Heading into the 2020 season, we expected Lamar Jackson’s 9% touchdown rate (No. 1 amongst qualified quarterbacks) to regress given the slowest Pace of Play (1.98) and lowest Team Pass Plays Per Game (29.3).
While the Pace of Play improved to 2.07 (No. 31) in 2020, it still ranked second to last. Meanwhile, the Ravens averaged fewer Team Pass Plays Per Game at 27.4 (No. 32) and the touchdown rate regressed to 6.9% that ranked 5th behind Taysom Hill, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Ryan Tannehill.
Lamar Jackson’s touchdown rate regressed yet still finished efficiently. A couple of other efficiency metrics to note, Jackson ranked 16th with 7.1 Adjusted Yards Per Attempt and 8th with a +13.1 Production Premium. When compared to 2019, Jackson’s efficiency regressed slightly with a +40.3 Production Premium (No. 2) and 8.4 Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (No. 5). Again, that falls in line with the regression in touchdown rate.
So why did I need to explain all of that? Well, efficient quarterbacks pair with efficient pass catchers. When we look at the data, other efficient pairings include Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams, Ryan Tannehill/A.J. Brown, and Russell Wilson/D.K. Metcalf/Tyler Lockett. The slight difference with all those teams – they average more Team Pass Plays Per Game.
However, there’s the potential for the Ravens to increase their passing volume even if it’s slightly. Per John Daigle of NBC Sports Edge, the Ravens have 70 available targets or a 17.9% target share. The Ravens also added Sammy Watkins that will compete for targets in that offense with of course Marquise Brown. Keep in mind that Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman has a relationship with Watkins in their days in Buffalo. In one of those seasons for Watkins, he reached his first and only 1,000-yard season.
One final note on landing spot since this is an intriguing situation. In an article in The Athletic by Jeff Zrebiec, Greg Roman noted that he wants to have a more balanced offense with Lamar Jackson under center more. Per this article in The Athletic, Jackson primarily conducted this offense in pistol or shotgun, and Roman eludes to Jackson under center more with the potential for an improved play-action game. In turn, that should help the production and efficiency of the pass catchers. Take that for what it’s worth, but it’s a minor narrative to consider.
Fantasy Impact
Since it’s early in redraft season, we’re primarily dealing with best ball data via Underdog. Rashod Bateman currently has a 127.6 ADP. Bateman goes near receivers such as Cole Beasley, Jalen Reagor, and Henry Ruggs. In roughly the 10th round, Bateman is worth a stash assuming he fits your team context as the 56th wide receiver drafted. Bateman checks several boxes in his profile with the College Dominator, college target share, and Breakout Age. That said, Bateman is worth drafting even with the passing volume concerns.
If we assume roughly 90 targets for Bateman using his 64% catch rate in 2019 and 2020 plus his 16.7 yards per reception, here’s his potential rookie season stat line.
- 90 targets
- 57 receptions
- 961 receiving yards
Sure, 90 targets may be arbitrary, but it’s possibly a high-end projection near Brandon Aiyuk’s rookie season with 96 targets. Touchdowns can be difficult to project, but I’d expect around a handful of touchdowns for Bateman in 2021. If we look at the 2020 receiving yards data per Fantasy Data, Bateman would rank as a top-24 wide receiver, but just inside the top-30 in 2019 with the 90 target threshold. Right after Bateman was drafted, I had concerns. However, after digging into the data, I’m a bit more optimistic in Bateman for redraft leagues in 2021.
Dynasty Impact
In dynasty leagues, I’m much higher on Rashod Bateman as expected. The general strategy in dynasty leagues involves focusing on core wide receivers and churning running backs since they’re often replaceable via the draft, injuries, and team context. According to MyFantasyLeague ADP data, Bateman is a top-100 startup dynasty draft pick in 12-team Superflex leagues. In rookie drafts with Superflex formats, Bateman goes in the middle of the second round in 12-team leagues.
More and more, I’m buying into the college prospect profile with the potential for Bateman as the WR1 in the Ravens’ low volume passing offense. However, Lamar Jackson’s passing efficiency will need to remain, which he showed in 2019 and 2020 evidenced by his +13.1 Production Premium (No. 8) in 2020. It’s a bit tricky to project efficiency for a rookie wide receiver, and that’s what Bateman will need to rely on. Bateman produced in a low volume passing offense in college, and expect him to do so again in 2021 and beyond.
