Jonathon Brooks Fantasy
Coming into this year’s NFL Draft the consensus was that it was a weak running back class and how much of a success the rookie running backs could be would all be dependent on where they landed and in which round. That belief carried over to the real NFL teams since only one running back was selected in the first two rounds. With the majority of NFL teams deploying an RBBC type of system there is a lot of value to be found in later rounds which makes addressing the position early less important. Still, one team did choose to take a chance on the position in the middle of the second round. That team was the Panthers and the running back was Jonathon Brooks. Brooks doesn’t have elite-level attributes and is still recovering from an ACL tear he suffered last season. That doesn’t mean, however, that there isn’t value to be found.
Fantasy Value
In redraft, Brooks may not have much value, at least at first. He will be going straight into a committee with Chuba Hubbard and possibly Miles Sanders, although I believe after the selection of Brooks that Sanders will just be a bit player if he isn’t cut. But of all the teams who could have selected Brooks, this was probably the preferred landing spot. The Panthers have a revamped offensive line, and although Hubbard has shown flashes I don’t see it being too difficult for Brooks to eventually supplant him as the primary ball carrier. In his first season, the Panthers could opt to ease him into the fold since they do have capable veteran running backs but if the team isn’t greatly improved from last season they will not be playing for much more than pride which means we could see a lot of Brooks in the back half of the season as they try to evaluate just what they have in him. Brooks has good patience, vision, cut-back ability, and speed, as well as excellent receiving skills so he does come with a certain amount of upside. With an ADP currently in the bottom of the eighth round in half-PPR, Brooks is being drafted as a flex option or possibly even a backup. For someone who could play themselves into a featured role that is the definition of low risk/high reward.
Dynasty Value
Dynasty is where it starts to get interesting. Before Brooks got drafted to the Panthers he was being valued as more of a second-round rookie draft pick. After the NFL Draft, however, he is being ranked as high as sixth overall in dynasty rookie drafts. Sixth still feels a bit rich for my blood. I would value him in the eighth to tenth range, but if you’re in desperate need of a running back on your dynasty squad I could understand reaching for him. Also, in Dynasty, the fact that he is recovering from an ACL tear shouldn’t enter into your choice to draft him or not. He should make a full recovery and even if he isn’t ready for the beginning of the season, dynasty is a marathon, not a sprint so you can afford to stash him and wait to see how he fits in the Panthers’ offensive scheme. While it’s true that young wide receivers tend to be the most valuable assets in dynasty leagues you don’t want to reach a receiver in the first round who is a second-round value just because receivers are generally the safer pick. Brooks is clearly behind players like Harrison Jr., Nabers, Odunze, Bowers, and Williams, and I would put him behind Daniels and Worthy as well. Once we get to players like Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, and Keon Coleman, a case could be made that, based on team need, Brooks might be the smarter pick.
Conclusion
The jury is still out on what type of prospect we have in Brooks, but he could not have landed in a better spot and should have plenty of opportunities, even in Year 1, to prove himself. Coming into the NFL Draft he was my top RB prospect in this draft class and regardless of format should be the first rookie running back drafted. If his ADP of 107 holds, a distinct possibility depending on how his knee fares this offseason, then he is an easy pick, but even if his ADP creeps up a bit there is an argument to be made for stocking up at other positions and choosing Brooks as a potential high-end flex. Some will say he could return low-end RB2 value, and he could, but the Panthers offense was about as bad as it gets in 2024, and selecting Brooks as your RB2 means you trust him to perform at a fairly consistent level, and I’m not there yet. I would prefer to grab him in later rounds and stash him on my bench, adopting more of a wait-and-see approach. In dynasty rookie drafts though, I would not hesitate to take him in the middle to late first round.
