Brief Statement on Grayson Murray
Before we get into the tournament breakdown, I do feel like we should address what happened with Grayson Murray this weekend. If you are unaware, Grayson Murray withdrew from last week’s event with 2 holes left in the tournament’s second round. Per a statement from his family, Grayson took his own life on May 25th. He was outspoken about his history of alcohol abuse and mental health issues. Outside of that, I personally don’t want to get into any of the details as I don’t want to speculate about anything. What I want to say is that when it comes to mental health, we’re all in this together. If you ever feel like you’re struggling, don’t hesitate to reach out to those closest to you. As someone who has grappled with the effects of depression and witnessed the devastating impact of suicide in my own life, I understand the weight of these struggles and know the importance of having someone to lean on. If necessary, the Suicide Hotline is available 24/7 by dialing 988. Let’s keep the conversation going and support each other through the ups and downs.
RBC Canadian Open: The Canadians Try Golf Instead of Hockey?
Hamilton Golf and Country Club, a par-70 course, spans 7,084 yards and features V8 creeping bentgrass greens. The course, which will be played on the West and South nines, is known for its challenging layout and is the third shortest course on the PGA TOUR this year. It includes 88 sand bunkers and 9 water hazards, adding to its difficulty. The average green size is 6,000 square feet, requiring precision and skill in putting and approach shots. The narrow fairways lined up penal rough demand accuracy off the tee to avoid losing strokes, while the fast, undulating greens necessitate careful reading and precise putting. Around the greens, deep bunkers and tricky rough challenge players to execute precise chipping and bunker shots, making a well-rounded short game crucial for success.
- Field: 156 Players
- Cut: Top 65 and ties
- First Tee: Thursday, May 30
- Defending Canadian Open Champion: Nick Taylor
- Defending Hamilton GCC Champion: Rory McIlroy (2019)
Key Stats
Driving Distance and Accuracy
Narrow fairways lined with thick rough demand precision off the tees. The course, with its 88 sand bunkers and 9 water hazards, has most of the danger within 290-300 yards of the tee. Long drivers can decrease the number of hazards in play by carrying these trouble spots. This gives long, accurate ball-drivers a big advantage.
Putting
To succeed at Hamilton, players must master the pace and break of greens averaging 6,000 square feet, which present subtle and challenging contours. The fast, undulating V8 creeping bentgrass greens require careful reading and precise putting. Given expected soft course conditions, players could easily aim for pin locations, resulting in plenty of putting from 5-15 feet.
Around the Green Game
The varied green complexes demand excellent short-game skills. Deep bunkers and tricky rough surrounding the greens require precise chipping and bunker play to save par. The varied contours necessitate creativity and control in the short game.
Playing well at Hamilton Golf and Country Club requires a combination of accuracy off the tee, adept putting, and a solid short game, making it a comprehensive test for golfers. I mentioned it briefly in the putting section, but the course has seen a lot of rain over the past few days. So much rain that they did not allow fans to be at the course on Monday and Tuesday while they tried to dry the course out. The weather throughout the tournament isn’t expected to be bad, but the rain leading into the event should make the course very soft and scorable. With all this in mind, its time to look at the players in each price range that I’m interested in at the RBC Canadian Open!
$10K and Up: $12.1K – Rory McIlroy
This feels like a relatively obvious play this week, as he is the top-priced golfer. In a range of only 4 golfers, I have a really hard time making a case for playing any of the other golfers in this range (Theegala, Fleetwood, and Lowry). The other golfers in this range are good golfers, don’t get me wrong, but paying this much for them is too steep. The case for Rory is simple when looking at his skills. A former winner of the RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton, we saw him shred this course in 2019. Depending on the source you look at, it doesn’t sound like the course will play much differently for someone with a great distance off the tee despite the recent renovations. He ranks second in course fit for this week and first overall in the model I use. Rory is at the top in almost all interest categories here at Hamilton, including Driving Distance/Accuracy, Putting, and SG: Approach. We already know the $5K range makes lineups with a $13K Scheffler work. Now we get a big discount for the top golfer and keep the $5K range, this makes it extremely easy to make Rory lineups.
$9K Range: $9.4K – Sam Burns
I struggled with who to pick from this range but landed on someone who has shown the ability to win recently. Burns is an above-average driver who does struggle with accuracy at time, but still ranks in the top 30 of SG:OTT. In two events since his wife gave birth Burns has finished T13 at Wells Fargo and was cut at the PGA Championship. His MC at the PGA would be concerning, but he lost 2.5 strokes in putting, which was his worst showing since November of 2022. Burns is typically one of the best putters in each event he plays, when coupling that with his distance and approach game I feel like Burns could be primed for a big week. Coming in top-20 in course fit rankings and top-9 in my model, I will probably be overweight to the field with Burns this week.
$8K Range: $8.9K – Aaron Rai
The $8K range is full of guys that I would typically love to play but they all come in with questionable form. Ultimately I landed on Rai because his stat profile fits this course extremely well, which is probably why he is top-15 in course fit rankings and top-5 in my model. Rai tends to be one of the most accurate drivers on tour and at a short course, his lack of distance should be mitigated. He actually ranks first in this field for good drives and top 10 in approach. Rai tends to stick everything close to the pin but that’s when things get really scary. He is one of the most volatile putters in the field, depending on the putter that shows up Rai could win this tournament, or he could miss the cut horribly. This is the kind of volatility that helps win GPP tournaments. His ownership could be relatively low given his price in the upper 8’s, but he always seems to get decent ownership. Regardless, I will have some shares of Rai this week.
$7K Range: $7.2K – Seamus Power
Power was one of my favorite plays earlier in the season when he was priced in the mid to low $6K range. Now he gets a price hike, but I think he deserves it based on his recent play. His last 5 finishes are T26-Cut-T12-Cut-T16. His first MC was the result of losing 2 strokes putting and having a poor second round. As a player that sits around the tour average in all major stats, as long as he plays his game Power should be in for another top-20 finish. Ranking top-15 in the field for SG:Total and SG: Approach, Seamus also ranks top-40 in Course Fit and SG:Putting. At $7.2K he can make it a lot easier to fit in players at the top of the board.
$6K Range: $6.8K – S.H. Kim
If we ignore the Zurich Classic (team event), S.H. Kim has made 8 straight cuts that have included two top-15 finishes. He is typically a great putter with above-average distance off the tee and ARG game. His best finishes are at courses where he can use his distance to his advantage and putt the lights out. Kim should be able to keep himself out of trouble at a course that seems to have most of its hazards under his average driving distance. I’m backing Kim who appears likely to continue his streak of made cuts. If his putter continues to be hot, Kim seems poised for another top-20 finish. S.H. Kim tends to put up DFS points no matter where he finishes the tournament, so a high finish would only be icing on the cake.
$5K Range: $5.4K – Austin Cook
A name that most of you probably don’t know, Austin Cook has played a handful of PGA events this year with mixed results. This year he has boasted 3 finished at T20 or better (2 on PGAT, 1 on KFT), but has also seen 2 MC’s at events that are objectively easier (Myrtle Beach/Corales). Once again, I am backing a player who has had a recent poor putting performance (-2.01 strokes lost) that led to a MC. As a player that typically sits just above tour average in putting, I feel like the poor putting performance at Myrtle Beach was an outlier. Ranking 8th in this field for SG:P and 13 for SG:ARG, I think Cook would be a sneaky play all the way down at $5.4K. I don’t see him winning like Davis Riley did last weekend, but a made cut and top-30 would definitely result in him outscoring most of the $5K range.
