Russell Wilson Trade – Fantasy Impact

Russell Wilson Fantasy Football Trade Impact

In one of the biggest trades in NFL history, in one of the wildest offseason weeks in recent memory, Russell Wilson is heading to Denver to lead the team he defeated in Super Bowl XLVIII. This trade has massive fantasy implications, both direct and indirect. There are two things to consider when a transaction of this magnitude takes place: the risers and fallers, and the shifts in value relative to cost.

Let’s start by taking a look at the man in the middle of it all – Russell Wilson.

As much of a power shift as this trade creates, Wilson’s fantasy value is the least impacted among all the major names. Twitter is understandably exploding with excitement around Wilson being paired with Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and other weapons who have been hamstrung in an anemic offense for the past few years, but this excitement is probably overblown as it relates to Wilson specifically. While his new assets in Denver have underproduced due to below-average quarterbacks, it’s hard to argue that they are better than what he had in Seattle even after normalizing for quarterback play. Jeudy may have the upside and pedigree to match or exceed Lockett over time, but Sutton is simply not in the same class of receiver as DK Metcalf on the outside. 

At best I would consider Wilson’s new set of weapons a slight downgrade, with his offensive line and pace of play likely to see a slight upgrade. I would consider these two factors to be offsetting, keeping Wilson right where he was as a low-end QB1. 

Now getting into the more meaningful shifts for fantasy, here is a look at those with rising and falling stock, along with my views on their respective value.

RISERS

Most (but not all) Broncos skill position players

This is the obvious pool for increased production, but I want to dig deeper into where exactly the fantasy value will be found… 

Jerry Jeudy – Jeudy’s stock is up, but be wary of price in both redraft and dynasty. There will be a narrative come draft season that Jeudy may play the Lockett role in Denver, but I don’t believe it translates. I don’t see Jeudy’s average depth of target skyrocketing to Lockett levels, which was 6th highest in the NFL in 2021 compared to 45th for Jeudy. This implies he will need his volume and touchdowns to surge in order to justify where I believe his new price will normalize. Jeudy is a near guarantee to have a career year given how disappointing he has started out, but I anticipate most leagues having at least one manager who is simply paying too much for him.

Courtland Sutton – Sutton’s stock is also up with excellent value in both redraft and dynasty. With Jeudy drawing the hype, Sutton can likely be acquired at a more attractive cost. As mentioned earlier, I don’t believe Sutton is in the same ballpark as Metcalf in terms of talent, but I do expect him to be the top red-zone option for Wilson for the foreseeable future. Jeudy’s presence and an elite QB should give Sutton consistent single coverage and allow him to maximize his skill set with contested catches on Wilson’s pinpoint accuracy. Additionally, in contrast to Jeudy’s relatively low depth of target, Sutton surprisingly led the league in average target distance at 15.65 yards. This equates to more of a hybrid Metcalf/Lockett role for Sutton. Jeudy will get his fair share of targets due to his elite separation ability (highest target separation rate in the NFL last year), but I believe Sutton may get the higher quality targets in this offense.

Melvin Gordon – Gordon remains largely uninteresting in dynasty but is very likely to repeat as an excellent value in redraft leagues given the increased scoring opportunities. He will be an ideal target for fantasy managers addressing other positions early in their drafts. Assuming Gordon is now retained by Denver in their “Super Bowl or bust” campaign, I expect him to continue to have a larger share of the offense than Javonte Williams owners would like. 

Albert Okwuegbunam – Albert O is worth the gamble. I can understand the criticism of people too quickly anointing him as a breakout, but the TE position is too thin to ignore a seismic shift like this one. Even the potential of Okwuegbunam cracking the top tier of tight ends while maintaining a floor as a high-end TE2 justifies his price. Fantasy is often a game of betting on the upside created by new situations, and it’s not a backbreaker to take that risk here and be wrong. At a minimum, he is a great bet for red zone opportunities even if he underwhelms with his overall production.

Derek Carr and Hunter Renfrow

This one may be a bit unexpected and indirect, but the fantasy peripherals continue to set up beautifully in Las Vegas with Wilson going to Denver. I was already high on this tandem for 2022 because Derek Carr should see positive touchdown regression – he threw touchdowns on 3.7% of attempts last year compared to his career average of 4.3% and a 5.2% rate in 2020. I expect much of the share of these touchdowns to go to Renfrow as Josh McDaniels has a long history of featuring his slot receiver. Add in the fact that some of Carr’s other advanced metrics were surprisingly strong last year and he becomes a relatively cheap option with high upside. 

Derek Carr had the 2nd-highest Accuracy Rating (8.01) in the NFL last year, behind just Patrick Mahomes (8.05). #Raiders #NFL pic.twitter.com/lb1u4lE7Zr

— FantasyData (@FantasyDataNFL) March 9, 2022

With Wilson a Bronco, we can now layer on the fact that the Raiders will get 6 divisional games a year with an aggressive game script and high over/unders. I’m not rushing to land Carr in dynasty or single QB leagues, but I do want Renfrow in all formats and will target Carr everywhere in Superflex and Best Ball formats.

FALLERS

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett – Both Seattle receivers obviously lose value without Wilson, but only one becomes a strong buy at his suppressed price and that’s Metcalf. At 24 years old, Metcalf has multiple paths to regain his value in a hurry. Either Seattle makes a play for a quarterback, or they trade Metcalf to another team. Before either of those things take place, his value is suppressed and he should be a priority acquisition target in dynasty.

With regards to Lockett, Wilson was the ideal quarterback for his skill set with his deep accuracy. Even if Lockett gets a quarterback upgrade (in Seattle or elsewhere), it likely won’t match what he had with Wilson. Combine that with Lockett turning 30 early in the ‘22 season, and he’s essentially off my board.

Javonte Williams – Williams’ stock will slide in redraft due to the team’s increased likelihood to maintain a backfield split, but this may also diminish his dynasty value to where there is a viable window to acquire him at a lower cost. This is a unique case where he is very likely to improve in production yet see his price fall due to a baseline of massive expectations. Williams’ long-term outlook remains strong. Like Metcalf, there may be a fantasy overreaction that creates an opening to acquire a tremendous asset at a discount. Williams’ floor remains high, and while his ceiling may be lower it is still a Melvin Gordon injury away from matching early offseason hype.

Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny – While I like both players when given lead duties, this was already shaping up to be a messy backfield. Penny had incredible efficiency last year, ranking in the top 5 in yards per carry, breakaway runs (runs greater than 15 yards), and yards created per attempt (yards above and beyond what was blocked). Carson is a bulldozer when he can stay on the field but will be 28 entering the new season. While both players are talented I believe much of their production was tied to the threat of Russell Wilson, as evident by Penny seeing stacked boxes on only 8% of his carries. Wilson’s absence combined with a terrible offensive line may decimate the value of the Seattle run game. While Penny is a free agent, Carson remains under contract. As a result, if I’m buying either of them I’m buying Penny in hopes that he lands elsewhere as at least the 1A in a new backfield.

Noah Fant – Noah Fant’s value may be one of the toughest to swallow. Many fantasy managers loyally and patiently held on in hopes that his talent and a new quarterback opportunity would magically intersect, and it nearly did. Initial fantasy reactions to the Wilson trade had Fant dynasty owners elated, only to later find out he was part of the trade. While he is still young (24), he appears to be on the short end of a rebuild while entering what should be his prime. His outlook can still change with a splashy move by Seattle for someone like Deshaun Watson, but if they go the route of starting fresh with a rookie signal-caller, it may be lights out for Fant.