Start ‘EM Sit ‘EM Week 12
Last week, my Fantasy Football recommended starts delivered production in certain spots. Tony Pollard, even with Elliot back in the mix, finished as the overall RB1 with 80 rushing yards and six receptions for an additional 109 yards and two touchdowns. Miles Sanders and Cordarrelle Patterson were much more pedestrian, as Patterson only returned value with a kickoff return for a touchdown. Meanwhile, Sanders was bottled up to the tune of 48 total scrimmage yards and zero touchdowns. Terry McLaurin (WR43) and D.J. Moore (WR62) were awful in PPR formats, but Saints’ rookie wideout Chris Olave finished as the WR7 with five receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown. Dalton Schultz was targeted in the end zone but only wound up with three receptions for 22 yards in a game script that favored Dallas’ run-centric scheme. Dak Prescott (QB9) tossed two touchdowns to Pollard to climb into a QB1 finish, ending the game with only three incompletions and over 276 yards. My sits were also a mixed bag. D’Andre Swift was held to eight touches but still scored a touchdown, which only netted 12.2 PPR points while ceding most of the goal-line work to Jamaal Williams. Kyle Pitts finished as a TE2 and sustained a knee injury, which has placed him onto I.R., while Justin Herbert (QB11) threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns in a close loss to Kansas City. Sitting Amari Cooper (WR2) was the biggest miss, as the Browns’ WR1 torched Buffalo for eight receptions, 113 yards, and two touchdowns.
Let’s jump into the first full NFL slate since Week 5 and collect wins down the final stretch of the fantasy football regular season schedule!
Start
James Conner (RB) Arizona Cardinals
As ugly as it was for James Conner in Week 11 against a stout San Francisco defense, he still had some nice carries, including a goal-line conversion to rack up his third touchdown in two weeks. He’ll get a much softer matchup on Sunday against the Chargers’ run defense, which is the third-best matchup for fantasy running backs in PPR formats. Conner also gets a few targets per game, raising his floor, while he could get quarterback Kyler Murray back under center at home in Glendale, Arizona. Conner has at least 13.4 PPR points in his last two games played since returning from a multi-game absence due to bruised ribs, so based on his volume and efficiency, plug him in as a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside in a great matchup against the Chargers.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) New England Patriots
Minnesota has defended the run well most of the year, but Dallas ruined their ranking, sending the Vikings’ run defense packing with four touchdowns to its running backs. Rhamondre Stevenson will get the next test against them on Thursday night, where he’ll continue to be the de facto WR1 in a stale Patriots offense. This is great for fantasy football because the second-year running back has at least six receptions in three of his past four games. Stevenson also gets 15 carries per game, even with Damien Harris taking away a few snaps, so Stevenson could easily finish as a borderline RB1 on the road in Minnesota on Thanksgiving night. He has delivered at least 14 PPR points in eight consecutive games, so don’t hesitate to plug him in against the Vikings.
Tony Pollard (RB) Dallas Cowboys
Until proven otherwise, I’m recommending Tony Pollard every single week. The fourth-year running back is an explosive playmaker in the running and passing attack for Dallas, so even with Ezekiel Elliot churning out goal-line carries, Pollard should be treated as a locked and loaded RB1. The Cowboys’ identity is firmly entrenched in running the ball or hitting Pollard on a route, which he turned into the overall RB1 performance in Week 11 in a difficult matchup on paper. The New York Giants couldn’t handle Detroit’s heavy rushing attack in a lopsided loss, so expect Pollard to collect another 15-20 touches with a top-five finish well within his range of outcomes. In his first game against the Giants with Cooper Rush under center, Pollard carried 13 times for 105 yards. He’s a high-end RB2 at worst and a top-five running back if he finds the end zone, which he’s done at least once for three consecutive weeks.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR) Indianapolis Colts
I’ve been off of Michael Pittman for a few weeks, mostly due to the carousel of activity happening in the Colts’ locker room with personnel changes. However, Pittman now has some stability under center with Matt Ryan playing well in the past two games, which has allowed Pittman to deliver 12.3 and 13.5 points in PPR formats. He gets the best fantasy wide receiver matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers at home on Monday Night Football in Week 12, so this elevates Pittman into the WR2 conversation. His only previous encounter with the Steelers came back in his rookie season during 2020, where Pittman finished the game with three receptions for 38 yards on six targets. The emergence of Parris Campbell should help Pittman produce a WR2 finish on Monday Night Football. If he can find the end zone, which he hasn’t done since Week 1 against Houston, the third-year wideout could wind up with a low-end WR1 performance. It’s a bit risky but the matchup is too good, combined with consistency from Ryan, so plug Pittman into fantasy lineups if you roster him.
Gabe Davis (WR) Buffalo Bills
One of the most interesting case studies in fantasy football this year has been Gabe Davis. Buffalo’s third-year wideout dominated late last season, most notably with four touchdowns in the AFC Divisional Round against Kansas City. The big-bodied wide receiver finished with more targets (7), receptions (5), and yards (68) than Stefon Diggs against Cleveland this past Sunday, but Diggs wound up with the only touchdown in the Bills’ wide receiving corps. Davis has had one massive blow-up game against Pittsburgh, finishing with 32.1 PPR points due to two monster touchdown receptions, but he’s been quieter in recent weeks. Despite the volatility, Davis has provided at least 11.8 PPR points in his previous two games against Minnesota and Cleveland, providing a stable floor. He’ll have a short week before turning around and going back to Ford Field to face Detroit, who is still a good fantasy matchup for wide receivers, but the Lions are playing with confidence and forcing more turnovers. Treat Davis as a solid WR2 with WR1 upside if he can find the end zone for the sixth time this season on Thursday afternoon.
Tyler Boyd (WR) Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati continues to win games without Ja’Marr Chase, which helps Tyler Boyd’s outlook. Yes, it was a rough day if you rolled Boyd out against a juicy matchup against Pittsburgh’s 32nd-ranked pass defense in Week 11, but Joe Burrow didn’t target Boyd until later in the game. He still finished with seven targets, which was second-most on the team in Week 11, but only wound up with two receptions for 42 yards. Boyd is a boom-bust WR3 but he’ll face the Tennessee Titans in Week 12, who are allowing the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Joe Mixon could be ruled out with a concussion and Tennessee has only allowed two rushing touchdowns all season, so expect the Bengals to dial up more pass attempts in a plus-matchup, which allows Boyd to gain value as a WR3 with WR2 upside on the road in Week 12.
Pat Freiermuth (TE) Pittsburgh Steelers
Tight end is a volatile, low-scoring position to fill in fantasy football, so if you roster Pat Freiermuth, you have to play him. The second-year tight end is arguably rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett’s favorite target, as he wound up with 12 targets against Cincinnati in Week 11, logging eight receptions for 79 yards. Freiermuth has five games where he’s finished with double-digit PPR points, so even though the touchdowns aren’t there, he gets plenty of volume downfield and has sure hands to collect receptions for solid fantasy production. He’s the TE6 on the year and finished as the TE4 last week, so fire him up against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 12.
Justin Herbert (QB) Los Angeles Chargers
Getting Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back into the lineup in Week 11 allowed Justi Herbert to look explosive once again. He found Josh Palmer twice for two huge scores in a tightly contested game against Kansas City, finishing with 19.7 PPR points, which is the highest total he’s provided since Week 2. Herbert doesn’t offer much of a rushing upside, so we’re relying on big-time throws downfield to a loaded wide receiving corps. In Week 12, the Chargers will travel to face the Arizona Cardinals, who just allowed Jimmy Garoppolo to light them up for four passing touchdowns on Monday Night Football. The Cardinals are a top-five quarterback matchup in fantasy football this year, so plug Herbert in with confidence, as he could easily deliver a 20-point outing for the first time since early September on the road in Glendale, Arizona.
Sit
D’Andre Swift (RB) Detroit Lions
Detroit is winning games without D’Andre Swift as its featured running back. The Lions are a run-centric team, so maybe Swift finds his way into the end zone at some point against Buffalo on Thursday, but he’s been ceding the majority of his touches to Jamaal Williams, who wound up with three rushing touchdowns against the New York Giants in Week 11. Swift cannot be trusted in fantasy lineups at this moment in time, as he has single-digit PPR finishes in three of his past five games while delivering a 14.3-point ceiling. Perhaps the injuries are more severe than we know, or the coaching staff prefers Williams’ running style. Either way, do not start Swift against Buffalo, who is the tenth-toughest matchup for fantasy running backs this season.
D.J. Moore (WR) Carolina Panthers
I committed the mistake of recommending D.J. Moore against Baltimore in Week 11 but I’m not going to be fooled again. The Panthers’ fifth-year wideout has a lot of issues to work through to manufacture reliable points in fantasy lineups, as the quarterback carousel rages on in Carolina. Moore has three straight games with fewer than seven PPR points while seeing a notable dip in targets. Denver is a mess too but their defense is rock solid, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Expect a heavy dose of D’Onta Foreman, with Moore fading into boom-bust WR4 territory against the Broncos’ pass defense in Week 12.
Cole Kmet (TE) Chicago Bears
It was fun while it lasted, but Cole Kmet cooled off dramatically in Week 11 against Atlanta. The third-year tight end caught three of four targets for 35 yards, but with Justin Fields dealing with a shoulder injury, Kmet will have an uphill battle to return to a double-digit PPR finish against the stingy New York Jets defense in Week 12. The Jets are 15th against the tight end position and don’t give up many touchdowns, which Kmet is reliant upon for success in fantasy football. Sit Kmet and pivot to other waiver wire options like Juwan Johnson.
Daniel Jones (QB) New York Giants
Daniel Jones was forced to drop back and pass 44 times in Week 11 in a lopsided loss to Detroit, which allowed him to finish with 24.6 PPR points. He also carried seven times for 50 yards and a touchdown, but Jones will face Dallas’ defense, which just obliterated Minnesota last weekend. In his first matchup against the Cowboys back in Week 3, Jones threw for under 200 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception, while rushing for 79 yards. He’s not an ideal start against a red-hot Dallas defense in a divisional road game, even with his rushing upside. Detroit has a bad secondary, which is not the case in Dallas, so expect another mild outing under 15 PPR points from Jones in Week 12. Sit him and pivot to other waiver wire streamers like Jimmy Garoppolo or Derek Carr.
