Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 15
Well, the fantasy football playoffs are finally upon us, and whether you’re in or out, chances are you still have a matchup this week. Recommending players to start and sit becomes a bit more difficult this time of year, because there’s much more on the line, and if a player hits then great, but if a player stalls then you could find yourself on the outside looking in. But with injuries continuing to mount you may find yourself with some tough decisions to make regarding your lineup. Don’t worry. I’m here to help. Below are some names that may not be obvious starts or sits, but who I think will help or hurt your team this week. Like always, look at these as suggestions only. You know your team better than me. Don’t sit someone who has been doing well for you, just because it’s recommended here. These players are merely players I expect to either perform better or worse than their current projections. One last thing, don’t forget that this week there are games on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. The last thing you want to do is lose your matchup because you forgot about those Saturday games. Good luck.
Week 15 Starts
Matthew Stafford (QB)
Los Angeles Rams vs. WAS (23% Start)
After a slow start to the season, scoring more than 20 fantasy points in just one of his first nine games, Stafford has been incredible as of late. In his last three games, he has scored at least 28 points in each game, with 10 touchdowns and just one interception over that span, and finishing no worse than QB8. Anyone who lost their starting QB and already had Stafford as their backup or picked him up off the waiver wire has been rewarded. The truly impressive part of all this is that two of those three games were against top defenses (Browns and Ravens) and yet he managed to put up numbers. Now, in the first week of the fantasy playoffs, Stafford gets to face off against a Washington defense that is allowing the most fantasy points in the league to opposing quarterbacks. Stafford should once again finish in the top-10 at the position, helping his managers advance to the next round of the playoffs.
Jared Goff (QB)
Detroit Lions vs. DEN (48% Start)
The Detroit Lions are coming off of a deflating loss to the Chicago Bears in week 14. In that game, it appeared that the Bears defense is the real deal and quarterback Justin Fields certainly made it harder for the Bears organization to move on from him. No one on the Lions fared very well with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs being the only skill player who scored more than 12 points in half-PPR formats. QB Jared Goff had possibly his worst game of the season, throwing two interceptions and failing to throw for more than 200 yards in a game for the first time this year.
The Lions return home in Week 15 to take on the Denver Broncos. On paper, this is not a particularly easy matchup, but Goff has been solid at home this season and should be able to exploit a Denver defense that is middle-of-the-pack against opposing signal callers. Goff is a low-end QB1 in week 15.
James Cook (RB)
Buffalo Bills vs. DAL (62% Start)
Ask any fantasy manager who has James Cook on their team and they will likely say he’s been disappointing this year, but as the RB14 on the season, he has scored double-digit fantasy points in more than two-thirds of his games and has two top-10 finishes at the position in two of his last three. He is still playing fewer than 50% of the snaps, which is a bit concerning and confusing, seeing as how he is easily the most explosive running back they have, but he has 15 or more touches in each of his last three games and that trend should continue when the Buffalo Bills host the Dallas Cowboys in week 15. The Cowboys are a tough matchup for opposing running backs, but Cook does a lot of his damage in the passing game and with how well the Cowboys offense is playing, the Bills could have to throw a lot in this one. Admittedly, there is some risk to starting Cook, especially with it being the fantasy playoffs, but the reality is if you have Cook he is likely one of your better options, and with his involvement and upside you don’t want him on your bench if he flirts with 20 points again. Cook is a mid-range RB2 with upside this week.
Ezekiel Elliot (RB)
New England Patriots vs. KC (45% Start)
I’m as surprised as you are that I am recommending Ezekiel Elliott as a start this week, but after how he played in week 14, it’s hard not to. In the contest against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Elliott saw 29 touches and finished with 140 total yards, one touchdown, and as the RB2 on the week. With teammate Rhamondre Stevenson expected to be out another week or two, Elliot should once again draw the start and with his role in both the running and passing game he should produce RB2 numbers. The Chiefs have been solid against running backs this year, but the Patriots don’t have a lot of playmakers on their team and it’s clear that this offense runs through the backfield, and with no one there to challenge Elliot for touches, he should be able to produce based on volume alone. Elliot’s performance in week 14 may be a one-week fluke. His efficiency wasn’t good, only managing 3.09 yards per carry, but if he’s going to see north of 25 touches, he’ll have value and could be worth a start.
Zay Flowers (WR)
Baltimore Ravens vs. JAX (49% Start)
In the last two weeks, Flowers has begun to show glimpses of what we all hoped he could be for the Ravens. Over that span, Flowers has finished as the WR7 and WR4 in half-PPR formats and has looked like the most explosive wide receiver on the team. He’s also heavily involved, playing over 90% of the snaps and garnering 18 targets over that two-game stretch. Lamar Jackson has also been throwing it more recently, even hitting 43 attempts in week 14. The matchups haven’t exactly been intimidating over the last few weeks, but neither is the defense he’ll face in week 15. The Jaguars are allowing the seventh most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Ravens may not have to throw quite as much in this one, but if Flowers continues to see a large target share he should be able to put up WR2 numbers without finding the end zone, and if he does score then you’d be looking at a potential top-12 finish.
Courtland Sutton (WR)
Denver Broncos vs. DET (60% Start)
I’m not sure anyone expected Courtland Sutton to be the WR19 at this point of the 2023 season, but in a highly unpredictable year, that is exactly what has happened. Sutton has accomplished this mostly by having a nose for the end zone. With only two games with more than seven targets this year, Sutton has relied on his scoring prowess to remain fantasy-relevant. Sutton has 10 touchdowns this year, failing to score in just three games. Inside the red zone, he has become Russell Wilson’s first read and that connection has been a fruitful one. As the biggest, strongest wide receiver on the team, Sutton is very adept at coming down with 50/50 balls, and his playoff lineup could not be more generous for opposing wide receivers. Throughout the fantasy playoffs, Sutton will face three defenses that are bottom-12 against wide receivers, starting with the Detroit Lions this Saturday. In what could become a shootout, I expect Sutton to be targeted heavily and once again find his way into the end zone. He is a mid-range WR2 with touchdown upside this week.
Isaiah Likely (TE)
Baltimore Ravens vs. JAX (36% Start)
In his second game as the starter this year, Likely had the breakout many of us thought he’d have in week 12, catching five balls for 83 yards, and one touchdown. This was good enough to make him the TE4 on the week. With Mark Andrews set to miss at least two more weeks, I would expect Likely to continue to be heavily involved and find even more success the more comfortable he gets. This should begin to take shape in week 15 when the Ravens face the Jacksonville Jaguars and their bottom-5 defense against tight ends. Lamar Jackson has a history of targeting his tight end. Granted, that tight end is usually Mark Andrews who is one of the premier pass-catching tight ends in the league, but in week 14, Likely showed he is more than capable of filling that role and is a matchup nightmare in his own right. He should continue to find room to operate and be a headache for a defense that has not shown they are capable of slowing down opposing tight ends. If you have Likely, I’m guessing you either lost Andrews or have not been happy with your tight-end production, making Likely the perfect fill-in right as the games start to really matter.
Week 15 Sits
Tua Tagovailoa (QB)
Miami Dolphins vs. NYJ (78% Start)
Let me say right off the bat, I know that sitting Tua Tagovailoa in the first round of the fantasy playoffs is not something that would be easy to do. I also know that it’s possible you simply have no better option, but if you have a player like Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, or Brock Purdy I would consider starting them over Tua this week. With elite weapons at his disposal like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, and De’Von Achane, one would think he would be an automatic set-it-and-forget-it QB1, but that has not been the case every week, and with Hill being questionable this week there could be even more cause for concern. Even if Hill does play he could be limited and against a tough New York Jets defense that would be less than ideal for Tagovailoa’s production. We also have recent history to draw from. The Dolphins faced the Jets in week 12, and while Hill, Waddle, and Mostert all scored over 15 points, Tagovailoa didn’t even score 10. Nothing has happened to either team for me to believe things will be that different in week 15. If you have a reasonable pivot option, it might make sense to use them this week.
D’Andre Swift (RB)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. SEA (79% Start)
Early in the season, D’Andre Swift was looking like the type of player that was going to win many fantasy managers a championship this year. Through the first weeks of the season, Swift scored 13 or more points in all but one game, but over the last five games, Swift has only hit that mark once and has failed to score more than four points in either of his last two contests. Some of this can be chalked up to the matchups. His last two games were against the Cowboys and the 49ers, both of whom are top-6 against running backs. His week 15 matchup should be more favorable. The Seahawks have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to running backs this season. Still, Swift simply has not looked like the same player we saw earlier in the season, making it hard for me to rely on him as a solid RB2 this week. If you don’t have anyone better then I understand firing him up, but don’t be surprised if, even though the matchup is a good one, Swift disappoints in week 15.
Kenneth Walker (RB)
Seattle Seahawks vs. PHI (52% Start)
On the other side of the ball in that same game, I would also avoid Kenneth Walker. Walker returned to game action in week 14 after a two-game absence due to an oblique injury and only managed 7.4 points. It was a tough matchup against San Francisco, but the Eagles are actually better against the run than the 49ers, so it’s hard to expect much from Walker this week. Another reason to keep expectations low is the presence of Zach Charbonnet, who had more rush attempts than Walker in week 14. That, combined with the possibility that the Seahawks could fall behind early, forcing them to abandon the run game, makes for a bleak week 15 outlook. I would play Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane, Zack Moss, and Jerome Ford all ahead of Walker this week. What do all those players have in common? They were waiver wire pickups, so if you have Walker you may have one of them as well. If that’s the case and you can turn away from Walker this week, I’d recommend it.
Drake London (WR)
Atlanta Falcons vs. CAR (56% Start)
In week 14, Drake London had his best game of the season. Don’t get fooled into thinking it’s a sign of things to come. The Buccaneers, who London faced in week 14, are a bottom-6 defense against wide receivers. It was nice to see that London can produce in a favorable matchup, even with the less-than-stellar quarterback play, but it’s tough to get too excited when the evidence points to this being the exception and not the rule. In 2023, London has finished outside the top-20 at the position in all but two games. While the 11 targets are encouraging, it was only the second time this season he has had double-digit targets, and now they go from a team that is bottom-6 against both QBs and WRs to a team, in Carolina, that is top-5 against those positions. The Panthers should be able to make things difficult for Desmond Ridder all day, and as a result, every skill position player (not named Bijan Robinson) should disappoint in week 15. If you have other options that have a safer floor and more upside (but maybe not as much name recognition), I’d go with them this week.
Dalton Kincaid (TE)
Buffalo Bills vs. DAL (57% Start)
In week 14, teammate Dawson Knox returned from a wrist injury and immediately cut into Kincaid’s workload. Kincaid still managed eight targets compared to three for Knox, but he only managed 4.6 fantasy points on those targets. Now he’s dealing with a shoulder injury and is considered day-to-day. Even if he is good to go on Sunday, he could be limited or re-aggravate the injury. At a position that is hard to find any sort of consistency, you may not have any better options than Kincaid, but as a rookie tight end, it’s likely Kincaid was taken as a late-round flier as a backup to your starter. If that’s the case I would sit Kincaid this week. Dallas is a solid defense all the way around, and that includes against opposing tight ends allowing just 10.9 points to the position. With the presence of Knox, the injury to Kincaid, and the opponent, you could easily be looking at another low-end, single-digit output, which is not what you want in the first week of the playoffs.
