Tennessee Titans (4-8) vs. Miami Dolphins (9-3)
- Spread: Dolphins -13.5
- Over/ Under: 46.5
Breakdown
The Titans go into this game as extreme underdogs and have not performed on the road all season. The Titans are 0-6 on the road this season and this is going to be a very tough challenge for them. Rookie quarterback Will Levis has his plate full with a Miami defense that has not allowed more than 21 points in 4 straight games. Levis has been decent to start his career, passing for 1,266 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. However, Levis did pass for 4 touchdowns in his first game, giving him only 3 passing touchdowns in his other 5 starts. Derrick Henry is the second-leading rusher in the NFL and they need him to control this game to keep the ball away from the explosive Miami offense. Henry has rushed for 841 yards and 8 touchdowns this season. DeAndre Hopkins has had himself a pretty solid season thus far, bringing in 50 receptions for 774 yards and 5 touchdowns.
The Miami Dolphins are one of two teams, (Detroit Lions being the other) that are averaging more than 400 yards of total offensive yards per game. The Dolphins have been cruising all year and Tyreek Hill has been the catalyst to the offense. Through 13 weeks, Hill has brought in 93 catches, 12 touchdowns, and 1,481 yards. Hill has a real shot at breaking 2,000 receiving yards and this could be one of the best seasons by a wide receiver of all time. Jaylen Waddle is having a pretty good season in his own right, bringing in 57 receptions for 743 yards and that is only about half the number of yards that Hill has. Tua Tagovailoa has done a good job of getting the ball to his playmakers this season. Tua has 3,457 pass yards, 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. The backfield combo of Mostert and Achane has been electric this season. Mostert has 828 rush yards and an impressive 14 rushing touchdowns. Achane has missed 6 games and left another one very early due to injury. When he plays though, he is producing at an outrageous rate. He has 534 rush yards on only 56 carries, averaging over 9 yards per carry. If this backfield tandem can stay healthy, that will make this offense even more efficient.
Keys To Victory
Titans Offense: Control the Clock. This game has a massive spread of 13.5 points not going in the Titans favor. The Dolphins offense can put up points in a hurry and the Titans lean heavily on the run game to control the game. Trailing early is not a good recipe for the Titans as they struggle to play catchup and thrive much more in a controlled game script. Derrick Henry needs to be efficient and control the clock to keep this game within reach.
Dolphins Offense: Protect the Ball. Tua has 14 turnovers this season, 10 interceptions, and 4 fumbles. They can score points in a hurry but giving the Titans extra possessions is a recipe to be chasing this game. If Tua and the offense control the game and play to the strengths of the offense, they should see themselves with the lead.
Prop Bet Pick
De’Von Achane Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Achane has breakaway speed and can easily beat this line on just one catch. He should be heavily included in the gameplan as he and Mostert will be splitting time. Achane has beaten this line in 3 of the 4 games he has completed and has not left injured. Achane had 30 receiving yards last week and saw 4 targets in that contest.
Green Bay Packers (6-6) vs. New York Giants (4-8)
- Spread: Packers -6
- Over/ Under: 37
Breakdown
The Packers have won 3 straight games and find themselves right in the hunt for the playoffs in the NFC. Winning back-to-back games against the Chiefs and the Lions is no small feat. A huge reason for the Packers good play has been quarterback Jordan Love. Love has passed for 2,866 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Love also has 231 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns. The Packers running backs need to step up and help this offense. AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones have been very average thus far this season. Dillon only has 521 rush yards and 1 touchdown. Jones has missed some games but he only has 245 yards and 2 touchdowns. If they can get the offense moving on the ground, that will help Love and the offense move even more efficiently. The wide receivers have been a bright spot for this offense. Rookie receiver Jayden Reed has started to make a name for himself. He has brought in 40 receptions for 513 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Romeo Doubs has shown some good chemistry with Love as well, bringing in 45 receptions, 505 yards, and 7 touchdowns. Christian Watson has missed some time but if they can get him going this receiver trio could be scary for defenses to over. Watson will be out for this game with a hamstring injury.
The Giants have had a rocky season so far and will be without quarterback Daniel Jones for this contest. Tommy DeVito will make his 5th start of the season and it has been a mixed bag for the rookie. Through his 4 starts (5 games played in), he has produced 697 pass yards, 7 passing touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. DeVito has shown flashes but has only put it all together in his week 11 start against the Commanders where he passed for 246 yards and 3 touchdowns. Saquon Barkley has been one of the league’s best dual-threat running backs and he has been showing he still has the capabilities to be a workhorse back. Barkley has rushed for 697 yards, and 1 touchdown. He also has 168 receiving yards and 4 receiving touchdowns. Opposing teams can afford to stack the box against Barkley because they are not scared to get beat in the passing game. The pass-catchers in this offense have struggled to get things going all season. Free agent signing Darren Waller has missed some time due to injury but still only has 36 receptions for 384 yards and 1 score. Darius Slayton leads the team with 435 yards.
Keys To Victory
Packers Offense: The Running Game. The Giants defense has struggled to defend the running back position all season. Aaron Jones has missed the last two games but is leaning towards playing in this contest. The tandem of Jones and Dillon could have themselves a nice ‘get right’ game in a matchup with a subpar defense.
Giants Offense: Saquon Barkley. Tough to put it on one player but the Giants need their star halfback to play well against a defense that has not defended the running back too well this season. The Giants are coming off of a bye week and Saquon should be feeling good heading into this matchup. With DeVito under center, Barkley making it easier on him by moving the chains on the ground will be pivotal for the success of the offense.
Prop Bet Pick
Jordan Love Over 225.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Love has been red hot recently and the Giants defense is middle of the pack at stopping the pass. Love has hit the over on this line in 6 straight games and has only passed for under this line in 3 games this season. If the Giants offense can keep pace this should be a very obtainable line for Love to hit.
