Stefon Diggs Fantasy Impact in Buffalo

Stefon Diggs traded to Buffalo

The Buffalo Bills are sending a first-round pick #22 overall, a 2020 5th and 6th round pick and a 4th round pick for next year’s draft for Stefon Diggs and a 7th round pick this year. This deal makes a ton of sense for both sides. Buffalo gets their number one wide receiver they were hoping for and the Vikings get a pretty good haul for a premier wideout. The trade compensation the Vikings got is a ton better than what the Texans got for DeAndre Hopkins.

Compensation update: Bills are trading a 1st-round pick, a 5th-round pick, a 6th-round pick and a 2021 4th-round pick for Vikings WR Stefon Diggs and a 2020 7th-round pick, source tells ESPN.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 17, 2020

Trade Analysis

Stefon Diggs had grown frustrated in Minnesota, calling out Kirk Cousins and the offense a few times. A change of scenery should do the wide receiver some good, pairing him with a big-armed QB should be a dream come true. The Bills side of the trade is they got that playmaker we expected them to draft early in the upcoming draft. For the Vikings I would say they got a pretty good return for Diggs, they now have two 1st round picks and twelve total picks in this upcoming draft. 

Fantasy Impact

The impact Diggs will have with the Bills is directly tied to the growth of Josh Allen for me. Diggs is an elite route runner and a legit deep ball threat, finishing top 5 in air yards per target with 13.4 yards per reception. With a 21.9% target rate in Minnesota Diggs was able to finish 3rd in fantasy points per target also. I expect roughly the same target share for Diggs in Buffalo maybe a bit higher as he eats into the targets of John Brown and Cole Beasley. Josh Allen was QB7 last season in fantasy points and I expect that to jump into the top 5 this season. Allen has progressed each of his first two years in the league but will need to really work on his deep-ball accuracy to make this trade beneficial. Allen ranked 30th in that category in 2019. Diggs is unlike any other playmaker Allen has played with yet in his short NFL career and will take some pressure off the rest of the wide receiving core who both saw a 25%+ target share last season. 

Fantasy Projection

As I stated above I believe if Josh Allen takes that next step to become a franchise QB we could see a huge season in Buffalo. Diggs saw 93 targets last year catching 63 of them for a 67% catch rate, with Allens’ ability to get out of the pocket and extend plays I would expect those numbers to rise dramatically. Diggs was already in the top 3 of points per target and 5th in Air Yards last season if Allen can find his deep ball accuracy I would expect a 115 target season with closer to 75 catches and a jump to the 10 touchdown range for Diggs. I think the addition of Diggs does bump John Brown down a bit into the WR3 range in fantasy. Beasley doesn’t take as much of a hit as he is the short over the middle guy for the offense. Now is the time in Buffalo with the Pats, Jets, and Dolphins all in a bit of turmoil. I project a top 5 season for both Diggs and Josh Allen next season.