MLB Player Props
Yesterday was a rough go at trying to grasp that perfect record. Reid Detmers had an awful outing last night. I might have to ban any Los Angeles Angels props until further notice. Jack Leiter was pulled early, as he allowed six earned runs but only three hits. He issued three walks and one hit batter. It was the right read, but luck was not on my side. Chris Bassitt had his start scratched due to rain, but Josh Naylor came up clutch with a home run off Leiter.
Today, I look to bounce back and make up for yesterday’s performance. Let’s see what player props cracked the top three.
Ranger Suarez Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-175)
The best team in baseball thus far has been the Philadelphia Phillies. After two deep playoff runs, the Phillies are locked in from the start and are trying to finish the job this season. Their pitching staff has been lights out. Their starting rotation has the second-best ERA in all of baseball with a 2.65 ERA. One of the major cogs in this machine is Ranger Suarez.
For the season, Suarez is 7-0 with a 1.50 ERA. He is making an early case for the NL Cy Young. Tonight, he is facing a New York Mets team that is struggling once again. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games and have to head to Philadelphia and take on this hot Phillies squad.
Suarez has been excellent at home. He is 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in four starts at home, which includes a complete game shutout. Suarez has only allowed more than two earned runs twice this season. One was against the San Francisco Giants, which he still pitched a great game. The other was against the Atlanta Braves, who have a lethal batting lineup.
The Mets are not the best when it comes to facing left-handed pitchers. They are batting .224, which is 22nd in the league. I expect Suarez to have another great outing and continue the Cy Young campaign.
Bryan Woo Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130)
I will admit that this prop bet is scary. 4.5 strikeouts is a low line for most starts, especially for Bryan Woo, who can easily exceed this line. However, there are a few reasons why I wanted to take this under. The first issue is the health of Woo. He started the season on the IL with right elbow inflammation and made his return to the mound last week. Unfortunately, he was taken out after 62 pitches due to right forearm tightness.
The Mariners claimed it was for precautionary reasons, but you cannot think that he is fully ready to empty 80-90 pitches. Any slight mishap from Woo can lead to the Mariners having to take him out again.
Then there are the Kansas City Royals, who the Mariners face today. The Royals are a young squad but are trying to push forward for the AL Central. At 26-18, the Royals are making a statement that they have arrived earlier than we all expected. The Royals do not strike out at all. They are the third-best team in total hitting strikeouts while holding the second-best spot in K%.
This is a risky bet for sure, but the Royals have the makeup not to strike out while Woo can be pulled early due to his injury history.
Carlos Carrasco 5+ Hits Allowed (-205)
The Cleveland Guardians are rolling this season. They are 27-16 and hold the top spot in the AL Central. They are a relentless group that knows how to win ball games. However, Carlos Carrasco is one of the few weak links on this team. Carrasco is an old-school pitcher where velocity is not his forte. His goal is to try and get outs by any means necessary, but he tends to struggle to execute that goal. He is 2-3 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. He allows too many hits, while not being able to get guys to whiff.
The Texas Rangers get the opportunity to rough up Carrasco. The Rangers love facing right-handed pitchers. They are top seven in both batting average and OPS against righties. The defending champs are looking to finally get back on track and remind everyone why they are the top team in baseball.
This matchup just screams to me. Carrasco has a 6.20 ERA at home, while I already laid out the Rangers love for righties. Carrasco has allowed 5 hits in almost every game he has pitched in this season as well. The only two exceptions were an outing where he allowed 4 hits and another where he only managed to pitch three total innings. This play is my clear-cut favorite on the board today.
