DFS Picks for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla GC
The PGA Championship is right around the corner, and I can’t wait for the first tee on Thursday. The second PGA Major of the year has proven to be a difficult test for golfers of all skill levels in recent years, with winning scores averaging worse than -10 over the past several years. If you want to learn more about the course and the skills I’m looking for in my DFS plays this week, check out my article from earlier.
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Field: 156 Players
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Cut: Top 70 and ties
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First Tee: Thursday, May 16
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Defending Champion: Brooks Koepka
Before jumping to my plays, I want to talk briefly about two things. First, pay attention to the fact the cutline is Top 70 and ties, not 60. This gives us a few more spots around the cutline, but it doesn’t change how many longshot options I am taking. Second, pay attention to the weather heading into Thursday/Friday. Looking ahead, I didn’t notice any major wave advantage in terms of weather. I am keeping an eye on the possible rain on Friday, it looks like it could be heavier in the morning than the afternoon, meaning there could be an AM/PM wave advantage. Either way, I don’t plan on doing too much wave stacking this week. So, without further ado, below are my favorite plays at each price point. Have a Happy Valhalla day!
$10K and Up: $10.8K – Brooks Koepka (Proj. Ownership: 12%)
This is one where I feel like I am following the pack. I have heard a lot about Brooks headed into the PGA Championship, especially since he is the defending champion. However, I can’t ignore the player that Brooks became for the PGA Championship and US Open. Outside of his injury-riddled 2022 season, he has won 5 times at those events. If he isn’t winning, he is showing Top 20 upside every time. For those that don’t follow LIV, he also just recently won in Singapore on May 5th. If you want to ignore his history and recent win, consider that Valhalla is a long, hard golf course that requires a lot of mental toughness. Those traits fit Brooks perfectly. In this field, he is 1st in SG:TOT, 15th in Driving distance, and 24th OTT. With the price and ownership discounts you get on Brooks compared to Rory and Scottie, he offers great upside. I will have plenty of Brooks this week.
$9K Range: $9.2K – Viktor Hovland (Proj. Ownership: 10%)
For those of you who want to stop reading this article because I have Hovland here, just give me a second. This is a feel play based on how he played in the final round at Wells Fargo. During round 4 Hovland showed flares of the player we all knew last year and thought we would see this year. His approach game looked like it started to right itself, gaining 1.07 strokes to the field, his best dating back to September of last year. He played decently in round 1 of the Masters before a horrible round 2 caused him to miss the cut. I know that it’s a one round sample, but these are the best players in the world, sometimes all it takes is one round. I’m not saying that he is a guarantee to even make the cut, this is just a play that I think is a must given his price tag and talent. He ranks top 20 course fit and 10th in the model I am using this week. If Viktor found his game again, I promise you won’t find him this cheap for future Majors.
$8K Range: $8.2K – Tyrrell Hatton (Proj. Ownership: 12%)
Tyrrell Hatton is a player that I have never really been all that interested in, I just thought he always lets his emotions get in the way. However, after his T9 at the Masters I decided to look at his performances at Major Championships. With 13 top 25’s and 6 top 10’s, he has shown he can be a contender on the big stage. Coming in with a course fit of 19 and being above average in driving distance, SG:P, SG:OTT, and SG:APP, Hatton offers a ton of upside. Since jumping to LIV in February, he has only managed 3 top 10s, but I don’t know how much I really care about that. I heard someone earlier in the week talk about how the LIV guys no longer have the 4th round to score which can actually make a big difference. When looking at his last 3 PGA starts (getting all 4 rounds), he has gone T14 -> T13 -> T9. I expect him to get some ownership, but with the players in the upper $7K range, I expect his numbers to be lower than they should be. Give me some Tyrrell Hatton in my lineups this week!
$7K Range: $7.2K – Alex Noren (Proj Ownership: 11%)
In my opinion this is a very disrespectful price for Noren who has been playing some really good golf this season. Since March his worst finish was a T24 last week at the Wells Fargo, largely thanks to a poor round 2. Noren ranks in the top half of the field in approach, putting, and ARG, skills that should be very useful this week. At this price, we won’t get the kind of ownership discount we would like on a guy playing this well. The last time he was priced this low was at the Players in March, he finished T19 that week. I won’t be running to put Noren in my lineups this week, but I will be walking at a very fast pace.
$6K Range: $6.5K – Kurt Kitayama (Proj. Ownership: 6%)
I disagree with the course fit rankings I use saying this course is a bad one for Kitayama (106th). He is 16th in the field in driving distance, 8th in approach from 200+, and 57th in SG:TOT. The model I’m using has him ranked as the 49th best golfer in the field, but his DraftKings pricing says otherwise. At this price, we don’t need Kitayama to go out and win the PGA Championship; that would just be a bonus. Instead we need him to go out and finish Top 25-30, a benchmark that Kitayama is very capable of hitting. He is a player I will gladly have plenty of on my rosters, especially considering the lack of talent at the bottom half of the pricing.
$5K Range: $5.8K – MacKenzie Hughes (Proj. Ownership: 6%)
I know I talked about the disrespectful price for Noren in this field, but Hughes definitely has the most disrespectful price on the DraftKings board. Like Noren, the last time he was this cheap was at the Players. Just like Noren that week, Hughes also finished well, coming in 26th that week. With 3 Top-15 finishes in his last 5 starts including a T6 last week, Hughes is in great form coming into a difficult event with a loaded field. He isn’t a long driver off the tee, but he has a solid approach and around the green game that culminates with one of the best putters in the game. Depending on the weather and how the course plays, these strengths could easily keep him on the second page of the leaderboard if not higher. Just like with Kitayama above, we don’t necessarily need Hughes to win, we just need him to finish in the Top 25-30 like he did at the players. I don’t feel like there are too many guys in the $5k range that are viable this week, but Hughes is one that I will definitely be taking.
