Thursday Night Breakdown
Buccaneers (-4.5) at Bears | Over/Under 44
Week 5 starts with a battle between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Chicago Bears. This matchup brings two Super Bowl MVPs to the forefront as Tom Brady faces off against Nick Foles. However, this is a different team Nick is leading and he will have to approach this game differently to pull off the victory against the favored Buccaneers. The Buccaneers, due to injuries, will be limping into this game Thursday night. So how will each team approach the game to come away with the win, we break it down below.
How The Tampa Bay Buccaneers Win
When you sign Tom Brady in the offseason, your gameplan will revolve around his arm guiding you to victory on most nights. he has started the season throwing 11 touchdowns in 4 games. The biggest issue for Brady and the Buccaneers is the injury bug. With the short week, six important pieces to their offense once again missed practice while also putting O.J. Howard to the injured reserve. This game will rely on Brady being the GOAT and taking this game under his wing while allowing his defense to create stops and turnovers throughout the game.
How The Chicago Bears Win The Game
The name of the game for the Bears is running the ball and turnovers. We have all watched Nick Foles have magical moments throughout his career, this game will not be one of them. The Buccaneers defense is the 4th best in the NFL. The Bears gameplan should revolve around clock management and keeping Tom Brady off the field. This means a lot of carries for the second year running back David Montgomery and targets for the Bears safety blanket, Allen Robinson. For the Bear to win this game they will need a close battle heading into the final minutes of the fourth quarter.
Daily Fantasy Sport Breakdown
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady ($11,200)
Brady comes in hot as last week he threw for 5 touchdowns against the Los Angeles Chargers. However, his opponent this week has a stout passing defense. The Bears are 9th overall in yards per game at 230 yards to opposing quarterbacks. Normally this would spell a running back heavy gameplan, that is until you look at Brady’s backfield. Leonard Fournette is still struggling with injury, as is Lesean Mccoy. Ronald Jones and Ke’Shawn Vaughn are there, but neither are backs that can put the team on their back.
Nick Foles ($10,000)
This is a steep price for a player who from week to week you don’t know who you are getting when it comes to his performance. Nick Foles can take over a game, however, with this stout defense, it isn’t in the cards for this Thursday Night Football Matchup.
Running Backs
Leonard Fournette ($6,200), Ronald Jones ($7,400), Ke’Shawn Vaughn ($1,000)
Leonard Fournette is dealing with an injury so I would keep an eye and pivot away from playing him tonight even if he does suit up for the game. Dealing with an injury on a short week while having a plethora of running backs spells disaster for your DFS lineup. Ronald Jones although his stat line was impressive last week( 20 carries for 111 and 6 catches for 17 yards), is an expensive piece this week due to Fournette injury. You can put him in your lineup but you’ll have to concede later on in your flex spot if you do. Ke’Shawn Vaughn is the much cheaper option and also saw the pay dirt last week in the form of a receiving touchdown. With Fournette and McCoy banged up, Vaughn may get a higher snap count this week for a fraction of Ronald’s price.
David Montgomery ($8,400)
David Montgomery, with the injury to Tarik Cohen, had the backfield all to himself last week. He did not perform as fantasy owners had hoped. He had 10 carries for 27 yards and 3 catches for 30 yards. This is another tough run defense he is facing this week and although the gameplan should be clock management, I would pivot off this play to someone else for your lineups.
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans ($9,400), Chris Godwin ($8,400)**, Scotty Miller ($7,000), Justin Watson ($2,600)
Mike Evans, although he has missed practice this week should suit up. He becomes a plug and play as he has had a touchdown in every game this season. He is also coming off 7 catches for 122 yards game. Without Chris Godwin, Mike Evans is an easy play this week.
Another nice play this week is Scotty Miller. Although he missed practice he is expected to suit up for Thursday night. he is averaging 62.5 yards a game this season and with Godwin banged up I expect Scotty Miller to get more snaps/targets this game. Justin Watson is a deeper dart throw for this game, although he is injured up as well. If you play him in your lineup, you are playing for a touchdown or bust. With his injury, I’ll punt Watson and stick with Evans and Miller for the week.
Allen Robinson ($10,600), Anthony Miller ($6,400)
With Nick Foles under the helm, life did not get much better for the Bear’s wideouts. However, in garbage time Allen Robinson padded his stats to finish his line with 7 catches for 101 yards and a touchdown. Over the last two weeks, he has had 23 targets and is the safety blanket regardless of who is under center. This could be another plug and play.
Since week 1, Anthony Miller has disappeared into this offense. In a weak Bears offense, against a strong Buccaneers defense, you shouldn’t play many options from their offense. Allen Robinson is the only play from this wide receiver core.
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski ($5,800), Cameron Brate ($3,800)
Rob Gronkowski has one game over 3 receptions while Cameron Brate has 1 reception all season. Stay away from his position, Bruce Arians’ offense does not center around the tight end and until one of them produces you should punt this position.
Jimmy Graham ($6,800)
It is 2020 and Jimmy Graham is relevant again, this is a weird year for sure. If you decide you are relying on Graham this game you are hoping for a touchdown from him. As I said earlier with Anthony Miller, owning a higher percentage of the Bears will be disastrous in this game. This is not a Jimmy Graham week.
Defense And Kickers
Tampa Bay ($5,400), Chicago ($4,400), Ryan Succop ($4,200), Cairo Santos ($4,000)
The defense you can plug into your lineup is the Tampa Bay defense. With Nick Foles and Tom Brady on the field, you can expect possibilities of multiple turnovers from Nick Foles. Tom Brady isn’t a guarantee to help pad your defense stats.
For kickers, either kicker could see some points due to drives stalling out from these above-average defenses. In this case, I pick the kicker playing against the better defense (Tampa Bay). A strong defense and a mediocre quarterback will build a game script for the kicker to have a strong showing in your DFS lineups.
Prediction and Free DFS Head To Head Lineup
Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Chicago Bears 27-17
DFS Head To Head Lineup
- Tom Brady ($16,800)*Captain*
- Scotty Miller ($7,000)
- Mike Evans ($9,400)
- Allen Robinson II ($10,600)
- Cairo Santos ($4,000)
- Ke’Shawn Vaughn ($1,000)
