Philadelphia at Green Bay
Thursday night football kicks off week four with the 1-2 Philadelphia Eagles hobbling into Lambeau Field to take on the 3-0 Green Bay Packers. The Eagles are coming off a second straight loss and their schedule does them no favors as they have to face an impressive Green Bay team on the road with only a few days to rest and gameplan.
The Packers are 4.5 point home favorites in this game and the Vegas over/under currently sits at 45. The Packers strength has been their defense so far this year as they rank 3rd overall in DVOA. Their offense ranks in the bottom of third of the league in rushing and passing after three games and is still a work in progress under new coach Matt LaFleur. A matchup with the Eagles and their 21st ranked defense might be just what the doctor ordered to get this Green Bay offense going.
Meanwhile, the Eagles will have their hands full in this game as the strength of their offense, their passing game, will have to match up with the strength of the Green Bay defense, their pass coverage and ability to pressure the quarterback. The Packers rank second in the NFL in sacks (13) and third in interceptions (4). The good news for the Eagles is they appear to be getting their top wide receiver, Alshon Jeffrey, back from injury this week. However, Desean Jackson looks like he might miss yet another game.
CAPTAIN SLOT
I like using a running back or pass catcher in my captain slot. Quarterbacks rarely end up the highest scoring players on an offense unless they run a touchdown in on their own or spread the ball around to many different receivers.
Aaron Rodgers (16.2k)
Davante Adams (16.5k)
Davante Adams would usually be a chalky play, and still might be but perhaps recency bias will keep his ownership down. He’s coming off a disappointing (for his standards) game against Denver in which he caught only four passes for 56 yards. He has yet to find the end zone this season despite scoring 13 touchdowns last year so some touchdown progression could be coming soon. The Green Bay passing game is my top priority and Adams is a prime target in this game as Rodgers number one receiver.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (11.4k)
MVS broke out in a major week last week with a team-high 10 targets, 6 catches, 99 yards, and a touchdown. While Adams is more of a possession receiver that moves the chains on short and intermediate routes, MVS is a deep threat who can stretch the defense and rack up yards in big chunks. He’s a great GPP play but could have some inflated ownership this week after his big game on Sunday.
Miles Sanders (9.3k)
Miles Sanders is coming off a game in which he fumbled twice, losing one of those fumbles. Turnovers and dropped passes haunted the Eagles last week, but Sanders is still the most talented back they have as Sproles is really only a third-down back and Jordan Howard is a plodder who lacks the explosiveness and shiftiness that Sanders has. The Green Bay defense is more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, and the Eagles would be wise to try to control the clock and keep the Packers offense off the field. Using Sanders in your captain slot will be contrarian and save you a lot of salary cap that you can use to build a more balanced lineup.
FLEX PLAYS
I definitely want as much correlation as possible in my lineups so if my captain is a receiver, I am usually going to stack him with his quarterback. Since I am more interested in the passing attack of both of these teams, then I am going to look to pair wide receivers or tight ends with their quarterbacks for some correlation. A usual I will target both teams’ kicking games as well and have some exposure to the Green Bay defense.
Alshon Jeffrey (8.2k)
The Eagles get their top wideout back and I would expect him to soak up a lot of targets from Carson Wentz, especially if we anticipate Philadelphia playing from behind, which would be a positive game script for the passing game.
Nelson Agholor (7.8k)
Agholor was a chalky play that worked out well on Sunday when he scored two touchdowns against the Lions. The return of Jeffrey may not hurt him much as he will still likely be on the field for the vast majority of snaps in two and three-receiver sets.
Aaron Jones (9k)
Jones is still the lead back in this offense despite sharing some carries with Jamaal Williams. He is the guy you want if you think the Packers play from in front and go run-heavy in the second half. He’s also the goal line back and scored two touchdowns last week even when he only ran for 19 yards.
Mason Crosby (3.6k)
Crosby has been one of the most reliable kickers in the league during his career and using kickers in showdown is a strategy that I love using. They have a nice floor for their price and upside if their offense stalls out in the red zone and they end up kicking three or more field goals.
Packers D/ST (4.8k)
The Packers defense is a little pricey but certainly worth consideration considering how well they have pressured the quarterback this season and the fact that Carson Wentz should have to attempt a lot of passes in this game if the Eagles have a chance at winning. Stack the Packers defense with Aaron Jones and/or Crosby for some positive correlation.
Other options to consider: Zach Ertz (9.2k), Jake Elliot (3.4k), Dallas Goedert (1k)
Final Thoughts
In showdown contests, we are trying to predict game flow so it makes sense to build lineups based on the most likely outcomes that you predict will happen. The Packers passing game pieces are likely going to be popular but you can’t afford to get too cute on single-game slates. You have to play some of the obvious plays and eat some chalk. You can be different by switching up your captain and mixing in a few different secondary pieces but don’t overthink roster construction!
Don’t play quarterbacks against opposing defenses or running backs from the same team, but just about every other combination is on the table. I highly recommend playing multiple lineups but avoiding the urge to try and play every player and chase every projected outcome. Like any DFS slate, go heavy on your favorite core plays and then mix and match your secondary plays.
Good luck and thanks for reading my Thursday night breakdown here at FantasyData, where we offer the best tools for season-long fantasy football and NFL DFS!
