Pre-season rankings are always a bit of a guessing game. All sorts of factors lead to fantasy success, but by looking at past success and current situations we can make educated arguments for or against certain players. This is particularly true of first base, a position that feels thinner than during my previous years. It’s also difficult to make a concrete case for most of these players because of the surprising nature of the position. Last year, a lot of the guys taken near the top of the list disappointed, and several that we chose later broke out to surprise us. Players like Cody Bellinger, Christian Walker, or Spencer Steer were later draft picks who all became viable starting options. Ultimately, these are just opinions and the final choice will be yours but hopefully as you approach your drafts some of this information will be useful.
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Top 10 First Baseman
1. Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
At age 33, Freddie Freeman has shown no signs of slowing down with no obvious decline in any one aspect of his game. While he likely won’t score 130 runs again, we know that the batting average will be elite and that he’s a lock for .300+. This consistency and ability to continue to be good at the things we’ve come to expect from him is one thing, but over the last couple of years, he’s also become a base stealer, which is something that appears to be a fairly shallow skill at the position. But a skill that creates a lot of separation from these players from a fantasy perspective. In 2023, Freeman had 23 steals (a career-best) to go along with his 29 home runs and 102 RBIs. It’s hard to make an argument against a player who is great every season and has now added another skill to his game. Sometimes the most obvious choice is the obvious choice for a reason.
2. Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
Ranking Bryce Harper as the No. 2 first baseman may seem a bit optimistic, but still, I think it is appropriate. While he did have a career-low fly-ball percentage (FB%), Harper was in vintage form once returning from Tommy John surgery, and that surgery is the only reason he is draftable as a first baseman. Rushing back prevented him from playing the outfield, however, due to a stellar second half of the season you are likely going to have to pay up to secure his services. In 457 AB he hit 21 home runs, 164 R+RBI, and a .293 batting average. At the time of this writing, he is projected for 30 home runs, close to 180 R+RBI, and 13 steals. But after impressing during the latter part of 2023 it is not outside the realm of possibility to think that he could outperform those numbers with a full healthy season. It might be a slight risk, taking Harper as the No. 2 first baseman off the board, but in the end, I think it will be worth it.
3. Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
2023 was a career year for Matt Olson, with personal bests in several categories. While it could prove difficult to repeat his numbers he should still provide a level of success to justify taking him as the third first baseman off the board. There’s actually an argument to be made that Olson should be taken over Freeman since Olson nearly doubled Freeman’s home run total, but Freeman has generally been the more consistent of the two, which is why I would prefer him over Olson. Still, Olson has proven that when he’s hot, he’s very hot. With 54 home runs, a slugging percentage of .600+, and a batting average of .283 in 2023 there’s very little room for any objective opinion that he should be lower on this list. These are going to be extremely difficult numbers to duplicate, but even if there is a little regression he should return No. 3 value.
4. Pete Alonso, New York Mets
Honestly, I would not be opposed to placing Olson ahead of Alonso. They are similar players, and the debate over who is the preferred first base slugger rages on, but I prefer Olson just slightly. Alonso did get off to a strong start in 2023 and finished with an acceptable .231 with 22 HRs and 49 RBI before his June 7 left wrist injury. This injury played a major role in his final stats. Upon returning on June 18, Alonso had an average of .132 with four home runs and 13 RBI. In the end, Alonso finished last season with 46 HRs, 118 RBI, and a less-than-inspiring .217 average. Alonso is currently ranked as a third-round pick. That could change as the season approaches, but if he remains roughly in the same range you could be getting a first-round value for third-round price. Now that he appears healthy, he could be a major steal if you’re able to get him at a discount.
5. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
In 2023, Vlad came out swinging (pun intended), and it looked like he was destined to repeat his 2021 numbers. But he then cooled off in May and June. But he was still able to finish with a .274 average with 13 home runs and 58 RBI at the All-Star break. After the break Guerrero’s season continued to be inconsistent, hitting just .203 with four HRs and 10 RBIs from July 15 through August 5. He did improve a bit down the stretch but ended the year with a .264 batting average with 26 HR and 94 RBI, marks that were all a bit disappointing. But I’m hitching my wagon to a rebound in 2024. People seem to forget that he is still just 25 years old and is just two years removed from being the No. 1 player in fantasy. With a player of Guerrero’s caliber, it seems more likely for 2023 to have been a fluke than for Guerrero to have gotten significantly worse. I do recognize that a selection of Guerrero is banking on talent and a bit of a leap of faith, but that is also going to be baked into where he goes in drafts. If he does, indeed, bounce back you’re going to be glad you drafted him.
6. Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
While Paul Goldschmidt’s 2022 season proved to be too much to repeat, perhaps it was unfair to expect it for a player who was 36 years of age at the time. Still, there were no clear signs of substantial decline, making him a player that I fully expect to continue to deliver. While he did finish with his worst batting average, .268 since 2019, as well as near career-lows with 89 runs and 80 RBI, I still believe there is too much talent there for him to drop any farther in my rankings than where I’ve put him. The fact is last season was bad for the Cardinals in general and Goldschmidt’s stats were a reflection of that fact. We may not know with any certainty that things will get significantly better for the Cardinals in 2024, but Goldschmidt will come at such a discount due to the combination of his lack of success in 2022 and his age that I think he is more than worth the risk.
7. Cody Bellinger, Free Agent
After two disappointing offensive seasons, Bellinger rebounded to such success that it’s easy to forgive that downturn. His 2023 performance has not been the norm for him throughout his career, so we do have to take it with a bit of a caveat and consider the possibility that it was the result of some good luck going his way. Still, it’s impossible to ignore Bellinger’s best season since his 2018 MVP season. Plus, at 28 years old, Bellinger is still in his prime with top-notch athleticism. But there are also reasons for concern. First, his exit velocity dropped to a career-low 87.9%. His hard-hit rate has also dropped almost every single season culminating with a low of 31.4% in 2023. Lastly, as a free agent, we have no idea where he will land yet. Where he ends up will go a long way toward inspiring confidence or worry among fantasy enthusiasts. But I’m betting on the talent, the age, and the belief that he will land somewhere he will be able to thrive. Only time will tell if I’m right, but until I’m proven wrong, I’m willing to believe in the player.
8. Nolan Jones, Colorado Rockies
I have no idea why those who create the projections for these players are so down on Nolan Jones, but Jones is being grossly under-projected and undervalued in fantasy circles. In fact, when you account for the fact that Jones’ stat lines are only over 106 games it is hard not to get excited about him in 2024. In 106 games, Jones had 109 hits, 20 home runs, 62 RBI, a BA of .297, an OBS of .389, an OPS of .931, and 20 stolen bases. So the fact that he’s projected for 16 stolen bases in 140 games makes no sense. The outfield, as of right now, appears to be pretty weak heading into 2024, which is driving up players like Jones, so getting him at a discount may not be a possibility. I understand if a fifth-round price may seem a bit steep for Jones, but I believe he is going to have a very good season, and if you’re brave enough to draft him that early I don’t think you’ll be disappointed.
9. Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
In a way it feels as if Christian Walker is beginning to have a moment, so you’d be forgiven if you didn’t know that he will be 33 years old by the time the 2024 season begins. While I wouldn’t bet on another season with double-digit steals, Walker seems to be a lock for 30 home runs, hitting that mark in back-back seasons. Now that we know Walker is capable of success in consecutive seasons we can have a bit more confidence when we draft him than we could in 2023. His age could scare people off of him, and although he has solid upside, the players that are higher on this list are more rich in that category. But with the potential of close to 180+ R+RBI to go along with the home runs and a moderate number of steals he may deserve to be a bit higher in the overall rankings than he is. His batting average has not been great, but it’s also not going harmful enough to your team to warrant passing on all the positive attributes he brings.
10. Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays
If you go solely by his 2023 production, Diaz is a no-brainer at this spot and may even deserve to be a bit higher, but his batting average and power production were both near their peak, making it hard to imagine improving or even repeating those marks. Also, at an advancing age (in baseball circles) Diaz sits due to injuries more than anyone would prefer. But Diaz does possess an excellent eye at the plate paired with great bat-to-ball skills that have allowed him to post fantastic strikeout and walk rates throughout his career. His power is also undeniable. Every time Diaz puts the ball in play, he hits it harder than nearly anyone, but his high groundball rate has been an issue. Still, if he can repeat his 2023 season, Diaz will be an absolute steal in this range, but with a lack of speed and the more likely scenario that he sees his batting average dip, this feels like a fair ranking for him.
