Pre-season rankings are never easy. This seems especially true regarding the pitching position, which is evident by the discrepancy among lists ranking pitchers for the 2024 season. All sorts of factors lead to fantasy success, but there are still clues from the 2023 season and offseason that allow us to make our best guesses of how things will shake out. The issue is that there are a few that seem like sure things when it comes to pitchers. After that, it gets a bit dicey to predict where players will end up by season’s end, but there are still those individuals that make more sense in investing in than others. In the end, all anyone can do is make their best educated guess and hope they’re right. But like with any year, remember to remain flexible whether we’re talking about drafting or in-season adjustments. It’s a long season and any number of things can happen to impact your team.
Top 10 Pitchers
1. Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider comes into 2024 with a lot of momentum after giving the best performance of his very young career. After finishing fourth in NL Cy Young voting the expectations will be sky high for Strider. The 25-year-old led the league in strikeouts, resulting in a career-high in innings pitched with 186.2 innings. Strider currently has an ADP of anywhere between 10-15 making him one of the top choices at the position for the 2024 season. If he can take the momentum from last season and turn it into 2024 success Strider should be a reliable contributor and a difference-maker for any squad. As a cornerstone of the Atlanta Braves organization, and with the proficiency he provides, Strider is worth the high draft pick and should be a clear-cut SP1 come draft time.
2. Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
Gerrit Cole may not be the number one starting pitcher in fantasy, although on some platforms he is being drafted as such, he is certainly worth a look as an SP1, and in my opinion, deserves the number two spot coming into the 2024 season. The AL Cy Young Award winner had his best season in a Yankee uniform in 2023. In 33 starts, Cole had a 15-4 W-L record, 2.63 ERA, and 222 Ks. Those stats do come with a few caveats. Chief among them is that there were signs of a possible regression coming for Cole. His 96.7 MPH average fastball velocity was down from the 97.8 MPH he had in 2022, but it was still in the 90th percentile. But even if some mild regression does come, Cole makes up for it in sheer availability. Since 2017, Cole has totaled 1,279.2 IP and made 206 starts, both of which are high marks for the league, and he has surpassed more than 200 innings pitched in each of his last two years. When building your roster it is not a bad plan to draft a reliable ace to build your team around. Cole can fit that bill.
3. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
There are valid arguments for several different pitchers to take the number three spot, but for my money, I’m giving it to Philadelphia Phillies’ ace Zack Wheeler. Since joining the Phillies, Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. In 2023, Wheeler pitched 218.5 innings combining the regular season and postseason. He struck out over 200 batters and placed 6th in NL Cy Young voting. Wheeler is also in a contract year in 2024. It’s hard to imagine the Phillies would not look to retain him. Wheeler has been about as dependable as you get at the position and is currently sitting with an ADP between 25-30 depending on the platform. This is a great value for a player who is capable of being a real contributor to your fantasy squad.
4. Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles
Corbin Burnes is coming off his best season in 2023, with a 3.39 ERA and 4.02 SIERA. Burnes is also tied for the third most starts with 65 over the last two seasons and ranks seventh in innings pitched over that span with 395 2/3 innings. So in Burnes, fantasy managers are receiving a reliable workhorse on a very good Orioles team after being acquired by the Brewers in a blockbuster trade this offseason. While Burnes’ strikeout rate and walk rate have taken a hit over the last two to three seasons, the former Cy Young winner is still a top-five fantasy starting pitcher and should be drafted as such. The Brewers were a good team in 2023 winning 92 games as well as the NL Central title. The Orioles are a far superior team, but also play in a much stronger division. The AL East had four teams finish over .500 last season as well as three playoff teams. This could ultimately hurt Burne’s W-L record, but he and the Orioles are still talented enough that betting on him is a great investment.
5. Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners
In 2023, Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo had a successful season by all metrics. Castillo finished with a 14-9 record and a respectable 3.34 ERA and finished fifth in the Cy Young Award voting. Castillo also compiled a 27.3% strikeout rate in 197 innings pitched, a career-high for him. Castillo is currently being drafted as the 30th-37th overall player (7th-12th pitcher) off the board, depending on the format. This is an improvement in ADP from past seasons. The view of Castillo’s value in previous seasons has often been that of a number two or number three fantasy starting pitcher, but as a consistent producer coming off a strong 2023 season, Castillo makes a strong case as an ace-level option in 2024.
6. Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
In 2023, Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman turned in a strong season, making 31 starts, going 12-9 in those games, compiling a 3.16 ERA, and a 31.1% strikeout rate in 185 innings pitched. He also finished third among AL pitchers in the Cy Young Award voting for 2023. While his walk rate of 7.2% was higher than his career mark of 6.6%, it was not such a steep increase as to be a major cause for concern. Gausman is currently being drafted as high as 30th overall and as high as 6th among pitchers. While he is not a perfect prospect as an ace pick, the lack of true top-tier pitching options as well as his overall impressive and consistent production make him a solid choice. The Blue Jays are loaded with talent and have a pitching staff that rivals the best in the league, but at the center of that group is Gausman, making him one of the real difference-makers at the position.
7. Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins
There was a lot of excitement surrounding Lopez’s potential in Miami. Many had hoped he would become a star, but it wasn’t until he was traded to Minnesota before the 2023 season that he was able to begin to realize his full potential. In his first season as a Twin, Lopez went 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA in 194 IP, striking out 234 batters, and finishing 7th in Cy Young Award voting in the AL. He also went 2-0 and gave up just one run in 12.2 innings pitched in the postseason. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly why Lopez was able to find the type of success in Minnesota he never quite reached in Miami. While his fastball did get better (94.9 mph vs. 93.5 in 2022) and he introduced a slider to his repertoire, it’s not clear that these changes are solely responsible for the improvement. But the why isn’t as important as the fact that it happened, and with the AL Central still largely considered to be MLB’s weakest division, Lopez should find himself in many favorable matchups in 2024.
8. Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers
The problem for Glasnow has never been talent. His 10-7 record, 3.53 ERA, and 162 strikeouts were respectable considering he didn’t debut until late May following elbow surgery to repair a torn UCL. The issue has been availability. Last season, Glasnow pitched 120 innings, and that was a personal best. With the additions of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, it’s hard to imagine Glasnow getting much more work. Plus, pitcher health has been a struggle for the Dodgers in recent years so it’s likely they’ll want to make sure there’s enough left in the tank for the postseason. Still, it’s easy to forget what Glasnow did when on the mound. Glasnow was dominant with a 33.4 K% and 7.6 BB%, and he should be able to continue that success. With a solid fastball, slider, and curve Glasnow is often able to get ahead in the count and then use one of his two put-away pitches to finish the job. If Glasnow can stay healthy he should return or surpass the value of his ADP of 45, and could even win the Cy Young Award, and your fantasy league.
9. Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
This past November, the Phillies re-signed Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $72 million deal in their biggest offseason move so far. Nola has placed within the top 10 in NL Cy Young voting three times during his nine-year career. While he has struggled with giving up home runs in recent years, allowing 77 in 96 starts over the last three seasons, he has still managed to limit walks and struck out 660 batters in 579.1 IP. Still, Nola is coming of a season that is a bit of a mixed bag. Although he did strike out 202 batters, his ERA was a disappointing 4.46, and will turn 31 years old in June. But he’s extremely durable (193 2/3 innings in 32 starts in 2023) and has an ADP of 55.0, which is great value. Nola still has enough talent and now has the contract to warrant SP1 and top-10 placement.
10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto was the best pitcher in the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) League for many years but seemed to improve in 2023. In 171 innings last season, Yamamoto posted a 1.16 ERA with 176 strikeouts and just 28 walks. That was after a 2022 season that saw him pitch 193 innings, a 1.68 ERA, and 205 strikeouts. This performance was responsible for landing him one of the largest contracts in MLB history when the Dodgers signed him to a 12-year, $325 million contract. Time will tell if he can live up to it and whether or not that type of investment was warranted. But it’s easy to see why the Dodgers took the chance. Yamamoto’s fastball is consistently between 93 and 96 MPH and has even surpassed 99, which he complements with a wonderful curve, a cutter, and a splitter. Yamamoto is one of my favorite investments because he comes with a reasonable ADP and has immense upside if things fall right for him.
