Fantasy Baseball Week 3: Hitters and Streamers
What a wild first week or so in baseball with the Washington Nationals Opening Day series postponed, then a multitude of injuries popped throughout the week. Even Padres superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. suffered a shoulder subluxation and landed on the 10-day injured list. That opens up playing time for Jake Cronenworth and Ha-seong Kim, but nothing can replace the elite five-category production of Tatis.
We’re looking ahead to Week 3 starting on April 12th to find the teams and hitters with easier and tougher Week 3 hitter matchups. We’ll also look back and reflect on the past week’s recommended hitters to see what we learned. Then we’ll look at the team matchups and dig a little deeper into fringy players to stream or plug into lineups based on matchups.
*Note – COVID-19, injuries, and other factors could impact the schedules and projected starters.
Week 2 Hitter Matchups Review
- Jake Cronenworth – Win
- Enrique Hernández – Loss
- Bobby Dalbec – Loss
- Josh Rojas – Loss
- Randal Grichuk – Win
- Rowdy Tellez – Loss
- Alejandro Kirk – Loss
Woof, what a rough go in Week 2 with only Jake Cronenworth and Randal Grichuk hitting well. I’m still optimistic about Enrique Hernández, Rowdy Tellez, and Alejandro Kirk over a full season. However, we have more concerns with Bobby Dalbec and Josh Rojas. With such a small sample, we may go back to the well with some of these hitters as we gather more data over time. Keep in mind that when we review each week, we’re looking at data from Monday of that week until part of Thursday night since this article comes out each Friday.
Easier Week 3 Hitter Matchups
- Atlanta Braves – 4 vs. MIA, 3 at CHC
- Baltimore Orioles – 4 vs. SEA, 3 at TEX
- New York Mets – 4 vs. PHI, 3 at COL
- Seattle Mariners – 4 at BAL, 3 vs. HOU
- Cleveland Team – 4 at CWS, 3 at CIN
In Week 3, all teams play six or seven games, but monitor the news for the Nationals in case they mix in some postponed games. Cleveland projects as having sneaky good matchups as they play in two hitter-friendly ballparks. According to EV Analytics Park Factors, the White Sox rank 3rd and the Reds rank 1st in home run park factors.
For the Braves, they project to face Pablo Lopez, Nick Neidert, Daniel Castano, and Trevor Rogers to start the week. As much as I love Rogers, we need to see more of it, so Lopez is the only tougher matchup. For the Mariners and Mets, we’re eyeing those matchups at Coors Field and Baltimore.
Tougher Week 3 Hitter Matchups
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 2 vs. OAK, 4 at WSH
- Milwaukee Brewers – 3 vs. CHC, 3 vs. PIT
- Oakland Athletics – 2 at ARI, 4 vs. DET
- Pittsburgh Pirates – 4 vs. SD, 3 at MIL
First off, let’s note that the Brewers and Athletics feel shaky in this group. However, in the first week or so, the Brewers (.215) and Athletics (.251) rank in the bottom three in team wOBA. However, the Athletics should take advantage of the weak Tigers pitchers and the Brewers should do the same with the Pirates.
The Diamondbacks have also struggled out of the game, and face a few decent starters in Chris Bassitt, Jesus Luzardo, Patrick Corbin, and Max Scherzer. They’ll also face Stephen Strasburg, who pitched well against the Braves on Wednesday. Strasburg pitched six scoreless innings with one hit, two walks, and eight strikeouts. We have other teams with six games, but I’m not concerned about their offense at this point.
Although the Pirates have a full slate of seven games, they face the Padres for four with Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, and Chris Paddack on the slate. Yikes. Even the Brewers have Adrian Houser and Freddy Peralta scheduled to face the Pirates, which makes for a tough week for Pirates hitters. However, I’ll discuss an underrated Pirates hitter later that’s off to a hot start.
Jake Cronenworth, 1B/2B/SS, San Diego Padres
Let’s go back to the well with Jake Cronenworth since he received playing time to start the season, and that will continue with the Fernando Tatis Jr. injury. Cronenworth started towards the bottom of the Padres lineup and gradually moved up to the top, where he led off in back-to-back games. In 31 plate appearances, Cronenworth is hitting .320 with four runs and one RBI. The counting stats should start to accumulate with double-digit home runs and steals. Ride the wave and enjoy Cronenworth.
Cedric Mullins, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins came out of the gate hot to start the 2021 season. Mullins used to bat as a switch-hitter but planned to focus on only batting left-handed in 2021. So far so good for Mullins with a .448 batting average, five runs, one home run, one RBI, and one steal in 31 plate appearances. Mullins also batted leadoff in every single game so far. Somewhere, Justin Mason is sleeping well at night knowing Mullins keeps hitting.
We can’t expect the batting average to hold up that high, but Mullins is chasing less with a 19.7% O-Swing% compared to above 33% in 2019 and 2020. That’s a good sign for Mullins. Over a full season, Mullins should provide double-digit home runs with 12-15 steals due to his plus speed. The Orioles face the Mariners and Rangers in Week 3. Through the first week or so of the season, the Mariners have the 6th worst FIP (5.42) and 8th worst ERA (5.09). Meanwhile, the Rangers have the 2nd worst ERA (7.74) and 4th worst FIP (5.96). Although ERA and FIP aren’t the best indicators of a pitching staff, it gives us a snippet into their struggles so far this season, meaning keep on riding Mullins’s hot bat in all formats.
Michael A. Taylor, OF, Kansas City Royals
Royals hitters have a full slate of seven games against the Angels for three games and then the Blue Jays for four games. Michael A. Taylor came out of the gate blazing hot with two home runs and a .364 batting average in 23 plate appearances. He’s crushing the ball with a 23.5% barrel rate, 52.9% hard-hit rate, and a maximum exit velocity of 111.4 mph.
In the offseason and previous seasons, Taylor tweaked his swing again and again. However, this offseason, Taylor adjusted this swing by removing his leg kick for a toe tap with a focus on making more contact. Anne Rogers of MLB.com notes those swing changes in a recent article and Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star noted that as well last December. Up to this point, it translated to fantasy production. The power looks solid and the steals should come soon too. Keep riding Taylor’s hot bat as a fifth outfielder.
Maikel Franco, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
Many fantasy managers drooled over Maikel Franco signing with the Orioles in the offseason after a solid 2020 campaign with the Royals. In previous seasons, Franco showed the 20+ home run pop that should play up in Camden Yards, which ranks as the 6th best park in home run park factors per EV Analytics. Although he’s struggling with five hits in 30 plate appearances for a .179 batting average, Franco will face the Mariners and Rangers ranking in the bottom of the league in ERA, FIP, and wOBA. The Rangers pitchers have allowed a .376 wOBA (3rd worst) and the Mariners have allowed a .344 wOBA (8th worst). Franco should take advantage of the weak pitchers and heat up into Week 3.
Jonathan India, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Whoa, Reds prospect Jonathan India hit the ground running with a .476 batting average, four runs, and ten RBI in 25 plate appearances. The Reds offense as a whole leads the league in team wOBA at .412 tied with the Dodgers, and India is contributing to the high team wOBA with a .470 wOBA on the season. However, we know that’s unsustainable and his .268 xwOBA indicates that.
They play three games at the Giants, then three at home against Cleveland. Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber project as the most notable upcoming pitching matchups for the Reds, and it’s difficult to bench India who’s swinging a hot bat. Although India doesn’t light up the Statcast metrics, he boasts a 94.7% Z-Contact% and an above-average 109.7 maximum exit velocity. Ride India’s hot streak into Week 3 as a good source of batting average.
Akil Baddoo, OF, Detroit Tigers
As a Rule 5 Draft pick in 2020 via the Minnesota Twins, Akil Baddoo keeps impressing with his opportunities. In 11 plate appearances to start 2021, Baddoo totaled two home runs, two runs, seven RBI, and one steal with a .455 batting average. In the limited sample, Baddoo has a 71.4% contact rate and 41.2% O-Swing% – both not what we want to see. It’s something to monitor, particularly the high chase rate or O-Swing%. Though Baddoo’s batting average likely drops, he could provide average power and speed. The BAT X appears to have a fair rest of season projection – 11 home runs, 36 runs, 32 RBI, six steals with a .211 batting average. Like a few other hitters, ride the early hot streak even if it appears unsustainable.
New day, new milestone for @AkilBaddoo.
He records his first career triple while bringing home a run. pic.twitter.com/XTu27oaJkU
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) April 7, 2021
Phillip Evans, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
With the wrist injury to Ke’Bryan Hayes, Phillip Evans received some additional playing time. At 28 years old, Evans experienced a bit of an up and down career going from Triple-A to the majors three different times throughout 2017 to 2019. Including 2021, Evans totaled three home runs, 14 runs, 14 RBI, and one steal with a .304 batting average in 127 plate appearances. Nothing eye-popping, but Evans didn’t earn consistent playing time.
However, Evans has taken advantage of the limited 2021 opportunities with two home runs, three runs, and three RBI with a .368 batting average. He’s lighting up the Baseball Savant data with a 14.3% barrel rate, 57.1% hard-hit rate, and 108.7 mph maximum exit velocity. Recent reports about Hayes’s injury indicate he may not return right away from the 10-day injured list stint, meaning the Pirates could keep Evans bat in the lineup while it’s on fire. We’ll note the upcoming pitching matchups for the Pirates look worrisome, but if you need a sneaky waiver wire pickup to plug into lineups for volume – look to Evans for a low FAAB bid.
