What a special week in baseball where Carlos Rodón tossed a no-hitter against Cleveland. Rodón threw a breaking pitch that hit Roberto Pérez in the foot that ended his perfect game. Such a spectacular accomplishment for Rodón after battling injuries year after year. I wanted to note that at the start before we review the Week 3 hitter streamers and a look ahead to Week 4.
Most teams play six games in Week 4, and four play a full slate of seven games. Meanwhile, four teams play five games, but one of them involves the Rockies at home for all five. Make sure to plug in your Rockies players and hitters facing them. As always, we’ll note that COVID-19, injuries, and other factors could impact the schedules and projected starters.
Quick Links
- Latest Player News
- Fantasy Stats
- Advanced Metrics
- Fantasy Projections
- MLB Lineups
- MLB Odds
- Lineup Optimizer
Week 3 Hitter Streamer Review
- Jake Cronenworth – Win
- Cedric Mullins – Push
- Michael A. Taylor – Loss
- Maikel Franco – Push
- Jonathan India – Push
- Akil Baddoo – Win
- Phillip Evans – Win
Since the Orioles missed a game this week, it’s probably not a fair evaluation. However, if we look over the past seven days, Cedric Mullins keeps on hitting. Meanwhile, Maikel Franco is heating up with a .308 batting average, one double, one home run, two runs, and eight RBI. Jonathan India cooled off a bit and hitting about .200 over the past week.
On the flip side, Akil Baddoo stays red hot with two homers during that stretch. Outside of batting average, Jake Cronenworth isn’t doing much, but a .346 batting average isn’t something to shy away from. Similarly, a lesser-known guy in Phillip Evans stayed hot with one home run and a high batting average. Unfortunately, Michael A. Taylor hit a cold streak, but he’s still hitting the ball hard with a 15.4% barrel rate and 46.2% hard-hit rate.
Easier Week 4 Hitter Matchups
- Colorado Rockies – 2 vs. HOU, 3 vs. PHI
- Boston Red Sox – 1 vs. CWS, 2 vs. TOR, 4 vs. SEA
- Los Angeles Angels – 3 vs. TEX, 4 at HOU
- San Diego Padres – 3 vs. MIL, 4 at LAD
- San Francisco Giants – 3 at PHI, 4 vs. MIA
In Week 4, we have four teams playing seven games, and another four teams playing five games. With the Red Sox, Angels, Padres, and Giants, it’s mostly about volume and why they fall under the easier matchups in Week 4. Furthermore, the Red Sox, Angels, and Padres all rank in the top-10 in team wOBA.
Although the Rockies only play five games, they play all five games at home, so let the run-scoring begin.
Tougher Week 4 Hitter Matchups
- Atlanta Braves – 2 at NYY, 3 vs. ARI
- Baltimore Orioles – 2 at MIA, 3 vs. OAK
- Toronto Blue Jays – 2 at BOS, 3 at TB
- Chicago Cubs – 3 vs. NYM, 3 vs. MIL
For the Braves, Orioles, and Blue Jays, it’s the low volume of games. However, you’re not sitting the top hitters on the Braves, Orioles, and Blue Jays of course. This is more so for fringey hitters on each of those teams like Rowdy Tellez and maybe even the streaky Austin Riley since he’s off to a rough start. Though the Cubs play six games, they rank dead last with a .256 team wOBA to begin the season.
Week 4 Hitter Streamers
Jared Walsh, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
In shallower leagues of 10-12 teams, pick up the red hot Jared Walsh, particularly for Week 4 and beyond. He made a swing change and adjusted his approach last season which resulted in improved plate discipline metrics. Jake Mailhot of FanGraphs noted Walsh’s swing adjustment in an article last September. Kudos to Eddy Almaguer of Prospects Live as well, who commented on an article on players to consider fading. Eddy mentioned Walsh’s swing changes and all fields approach. When looking at the data, Walsh chased less and made more contact overall.
Even his hot streak to finish the 2020 season with his nine home run stretch showed up in the underlying metrics. When a hitter chases less and makes more contact, it typically ends up as a positive note, especially when they’re barreling up the ball. The Angels play seven games this week, and Walsh continues to produce to start the 2021 season. Expect that to continue into Week 4.
Evan Longoria, 3B, San Francisco Giants
Veteran Evan Longoria is off to a blazing hot start with four home runs, seven runs, and eight RBI with a .316 batting average. He’s rejuvenated himself while destroying baseballs evidenced by his Baseball Savant page. Although we expect the hard-hit metrics to level out over more plate appearances, Longoria boasts a 20% barrel rate, .455 xwOBA, and 63.3% hard-hit rate. With a full slate of seven games, plug Longoria into your deep-league lineups. Keep riding Longoria’s hot bat.
Phillip Evans, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
It appears that I have an unhealthy admiration for Pirates hitters, particularly Phillip Evans as of late. Evans keeps producing as somewhat of a no-name guy heading into 2021. The Pirates play six games, three each at Detroit and Minnesota, and Evan is worth plugging into a utility or corner infield spot in deeper leagues. He should take advantage of the weak Tigers pitching that allowed the 8th highest wOBA at .340. Meanwhile, the Twins pitchers rank in the top-10 with a .293 wOBA (No. 9) allowed. Contrary to previous short stints in the majors, Evans is making a ton of contact, not chasing as much, and crushing the ball. Let’s see if the changes below stick long-term, but until then ride the wave.
C.J. Cron, 1B & Raimel Tapia, OF, Colorado Rockies
Since the Rockies play all five games at home, most fantasy managers should play the obvious Rockies hitters, and that includes Ryan McMahon with his hot start. Sure, C.J. Cron likely falls into the starting group in 15-team leagues, but he’s struggling so far. Through 39 plate appearances, Cron put up a measly five runs, one RBI, and zero home runs with a .182 batting average. He typically hit the ball hard, but he’s not even doing that in seeing his 4.8% barrel rate and 23.8% hard-hit rate. Hopefully, five games at home will help Cron heat up.
Raimel Tapia isn’t struggling, but he’s a solid contact-oriented hitter without the hard-hit batted balls. Since April 9th, Tapia has a .412 batting average with one steal. He started the season batting leadoff, then moved down the lineup with Garrett Hampson taking over the leadoff spot. Start all your Rockies in Week 4, especially the fringey ones in deeper 15-team leagues. Or if it’s an NFBC league where you can swap in hitters from Friday through Sunday, then bench the Rockies for two against the Astros, then play them for the three-game weekend series against the Phillies.
Jed Lowrie, 3B, Oakland Athletics
For Jed Lowrie, let’s particularly note the three games next weekend all at Baltimore, meaning the Athletics hitters should feast. Regardless, Lowrie has two home runs, nine runs, and 11 RBI with a .333 batting average. Overall, he’s finally healthy and back to his 2018 form where he hit 23 home runs, 78 runs, and 99 RBI with a .267 batting average with the Athletics. In NFBC leagues, where you swap hitters in and out of the lineup from Friday through Sunday, make Lowrie a priority for that weekend series with the Orioles.
Jed Lowrie’s Baseball Savant page looks solid as well with his above-average barrel and hard-hit rates while also ranking highly in his expected stats. Even for weekly leagues, you could plug Lowrie into your lineup as he continues to rake. Make sure to pick up Lowrie in all 15-team leagues, and he’s pushing fantasy relevancy in 10-12 team leagues.
Jazz Chisholm, 2B/SS, Miami Marlins
When looking under the hood, I found some intriguing plate discipline metrics for Jazz Chisholm. Although Chisholm typically struck out at a high rate, he lowered it to 28.6% while also increasing his walk rate to 20%. For reference, Chisholm finished with a 30.6% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate in 2020. Sure, it’s a small sample, but his plate discipline metrics give us an early indication of patience. Chisholm holds a 23.8% O-Swing% yet he’s still struggling to make contact with a 71.9% Z-Contact% and 65.4% Contact%. That indicates, Chisholm is showing a bit more patience and not chasing outside of the zone yet making contact is still an issue. However, when he makes contact, it’s typically loud contact with a 27.8% barrel rate, 50% hard-hit rate, and 111.7 mph maximum exit velocity.
Again, the contact rates aren’t great, but he’s not chasing pitches outside the zone, which likely means he’s whiffing inside the zone. We’re noticing some intriguing data for Chisholm that’s translating into recent production and hopefully, it continues in spurts throughout the season.
The Marlins face the Orioles twice then four games at the Giants. Chisholm will face the Orioles pitchers who have a 5.10 ERA (No. 25) and allow a .344 wOBA (4th worst). However, the Giants pitchers have performed better with a .278 wOBA allowed (5th best) and the 6th best team ERA at 3.03. Not the best matchups with the Giants, but only Kevin Gausman is worrisome when looking at projected starters, especially with Johnny Cueto leaving with a lat injury on Wednesday. Chisholm also recorded a hit in four straight games while also taking a walk in seven out of nine games. Hopefully, we’re listening to sweet Jazz music or the loud contact off his bat in Week 4.
JAZZ CHISHOLM EUROSTEPPED ACROSS HOMEPLATE AFTER HOMERING 🔥🔥🔥
(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/1heKgKJQBZ
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) April 15, 2021
Philadelphia Phillies Hitters
We’ll briefly note the weekend series at Coors Field for the Phillies. Unfortunately, we don’t have many fringey Phillies hitters to consider. It’s difficult to have any confidence in Adam Haseley or Roman Quinn outside of NL-Only leagues.
