Fantasy Football Sleepers
After what felt like a middling waiver wire week, which typically means fewer injuries (yay), we start looking ahead to Week 5. After this week, the bye weeks start kicking in with the Saints, Jets, and 49ers off in Week 6. Fortunately, the Week 4 fantasy football sleepers fared well, but that’s not the norm given the variance and player recommendations. As always, we’re looking at the weekly and season-long advanced data to see if they provide us with a glimpse of any trends towards optimism or concern. Let’s review Week 4, then analyze eight fantasy football sleepers for Week 5.
Sleeper Recap: Week 4 Review
Sam Darnold smashed once again as the No. 1 ranked quarterback in Week 4. However, it came on the backs of two rushing touchdowns and 35 rushing yards plus the 301 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. Darnold currently ranks No. 5 with 24.4 fantasy points, with the 6th most passing yards (1,189) and a decent 7.4 (No. 17) Adjusted Yards Per Attempt.
Zack Moss snuck inside the top-24 at running back with 14 carries for 61 rushing yards and a touchdown. Moss keeps garnering the high-value touches in the red zone, evidenced by the 15 (No. 7) red zone etouches. However, Moss and Devin Singletary share the opportunities with a 48.2% (No. 34) Opportunity Share and 30.4 (No. 43) Weighted Opportunities for Moss.
As expected, almost all the Bills’ key fantasy players feasted on the Texans’ defense. Emmanuel Sanders hauled in five of six targets for 74 receiving yards. On a team with the 9th most Team Pass Plays Per Game at 39.5, Sanders earns a high Air Yards total at 419 (No. 12) and 16.1 (No. 7) Average Target Distance. That said, Sanders looks like a regular WR3 with WR2 upside, depending on the matchup.
Unfortunately, Tim Patrick stunk with only three receptions on six targets for 39 receiving yards. However, Patrick finished with his highest snap share at 93.2%, and routes ran at 37. With Teddy Bridgewater leaving the game due to a concussion plus struggles from the Broncos offense, Patrick’s production didn’t look great.
On the flip side, Raiders slot receiver Hunter Renfrow continues to catch passes with six of eight targets for 45 receiving yards and one touchdown. Renfrow provides a safe floor of 5.5 receptions and 62.3 receiving yards, although the 19.4% (No. 43) target share and 14.9% (No. 76) Air Yards Share don’t look exciting. However, from a real-life standpoint, Renfrow boasts a 2.97 (No. 4) target separation and 25.4 (No. 8) Expected Points Added (EPA). Keep firing up Renfrow as a WR3 like how we viewed Jamison Crowder in the past.
At the tight end position, Dalton Schultz and Dawson Knox finished with top-5 performances. That said, their roster rates will jump, given the recent fantasy production. Schultz’s usage looks solid with a 17.6% (No. 8) target share and a 13% (No. 14) Air Yards Share. Although the efficiency is off the charts with 8.7 (No. 8) Yards Per Target and 3.05 (No. 1) Yards Per Route Run, Schultz should rank as a TE1 moving forward.
Meanwhile, Knox is a touchdown scoring machine with a 26.7% touchdown rate on 15 receptions. It’s a risky profile, but he’s mimicking Robert Tonyan with the uber efficiency attached to a high passing offense.
Let’s see if we can carry the success into Week 5, and hopefully, we’ll continue to refine the process with more advanced data.
Quick Links
Fantasy Football Sleepers: Week 5
Quarterback
Jared Goff at MIN
Assuming a negative game script for the Lions, Jared Goff will need to throw and continue the passing yardage trend. Through four games, the Lions have a -9.55 (No. 31) Game Script with the 5th most Team Pass Plays Per Game at 40.5. Goff boasts 1,110 (No. 11) passing yards with only seven (No. 16) passing touchdowns or a 4.3% touchdown rate.
Goff will need to rely on volume with the hopes of a couple of passing touchdowns. Although Goff’s 6.7 (No. 23) Adjusted Yards Per Attempt concerns us, his +10.5 (No. 8) Production Premium surprises us. The Lions have provided good pass protection, evidenced by the 84.2% (No. 10) Protection Rate. However, the Vikings bring the 8th most pressure (27.9%) with the 4th most sacks (13). If the Lions can establish the run, it’ll help their play-action game, which Goff thrived under so far with a 74.2% (No. 6) Play-Action Completion Rate.
Zach Wilson at ATL
Like starting most players against the Texans, we should do the same against the Falcons. Zach Wilson heads to face the Falcons, allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to the position. Last week, Wilson finished with the best completion rate (61.8%), passing yards (297), and yards per attempt (8.7) in the four-game sample against the Titans.
Wilson continues to air it out with 1,260 (No. 8) Air Yards yet a 4.2 (No. 32) Adjusted Yards Per Attempt. Unfortunately, the Jets also have the 18th ranked Team Pass Plays Per Game at 35, with the slowest Pace of Play at 1.42 plays per minute. That said, Wilson can’t rely on volume to produce, but we expect streaming quarterback-type production given the soft matchup. With Jamison Crowder now healthy, it provides Wilson with an additional weapon in the passing game, plus Corey Davis. The Falcons have the 4th lowest pressure rate (18.9%), and let’s hope Wilson finishes Week 5 as a deep-sleeper with him airing out and the 4th best deep ball completion rate at 52.4%.
Running Back
Kenneth Gainwell at CAR
Through four weeks, we have concerning trends with the Eagles backfield. Although Miles Sanders averages a 64.1% (No. 13) Snap Share, Sanders retains a 56.7% (No. 22) Opportunity Share. Sure Sanders still earned a 10.1% (No. 25) target share, but Kenneth Gainwell keeps eating into the opportunities with a 41.1% (No. 41) Opportunity Share on a low 32.7% (No. 48) Snap Share.
Gainwell’s efficiency looks better than Sanders with a 6.2 (No. 9) Yards Per Touch for Gainwell and 5.7 (No. 12) for Sanders. Even the receiving efficiency for Gainwell stands out with 2.59 (No. 8) Yards Per Route Run and 1.36 (No. 27) for Sanders.
Although Carolina allows the 4th fewest fantasy points to the position, the Cowboys thrashed them with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, given the 210 rushing yards combined. However, the weak 7.4 (No. 54) Run Blocking Efficiency for Gainwell and 18.8 (No. 44) for Sanders leads us to project Gainwell and Sanders to continue earning receiving opportunities. In deeper formats, flex Gainwell as a back-end RB3, given the targets and receptions.
Chris Evans vs. GB
No, we’re not discussing Captain America here. However, we’re breaking down the Bengals backfield with a secondary component looking like a sleeper. With Joe Mixon’s injury, Samaje Perine expects to take on a heavy workload. Note way back in 2017, Perine took on a heavy workload. During an eight-game stretch in 2017, Perine averaged 18.4 carries with 63.3 rushing yards and 2.3 receptions for 16.6 receiving yards. Last season, the Bengals showed the willingness to give Giovani Bernard the rock with 167.0 (No. 24) Weighted Opportunities and a 10.4% (No. 20) target share.
Sure, we expect Perine to take most of the rushing opportunities. However, Chris Evans boasted elite workout metrics with 132.4 (94th-percentile) Burst Score and 10.99 (92nd-percentile) Agility Score. Perine ended up as a top waiver wire pickup, but don’t forget about Evans with the potential for him to soak up opportunity in the two-minute offense in a J.D. McKissic type role. While we’re not recommending starting Evans, there’s a scenario where the Bengals fall behind with a negative game script, and Evans plays more snaps than expected.
Wide Receivers
Darnell Mooney at LV
By now, we know Allen Robinson sits as a potential buy-low candidate, given the brutal production of 13 (No. 55) receptions and 149 (No. 63) receiving yards. Robinson still earns a decent 24% (No. 26) target share and a 30% (No. 34) Air Yards Share, but it hasn’t translated into fantasy production yet. Robinson lacks the volume and productivity he often provided in the past that concerns us through four weeks.
On the flip side, Darnell Mooney heads into Week 5 after his best game of the season from a target share, targets per route run, and production standpoint. We notice routes run and snap share dipped for both Allen Robinson and Mooney in Week 4. However, that’s likely a product of the Game Script and the Bears establishing the run with David Montgomery.
Although the Raiders have surprisingly kept opposing receivers in check with the 5th fewest fantasy points to the position, Mooney outproduced Robinson, and we have a small one-game sample that could mean Mooney will keep trending up. That especially excites us with Justin Fields as the starter. Make sure to scoop up Mooney as we’re possibly on the brink of the second-year breakout for the speedster out of Tulane.
Jamison Crowder at ATL
Every year it seems Jamison Crowder does this for us. Crowder misses time for an injury, and then he’ll explode with a WR1 or WR2 type performance as the Jets slot receiver. After missing the first three weeks with a groin strain, Crowder hauled in seven of nine targets for 61 receiving yards and one touchdown. Five of those targets came in the red zone. Crowder’s 26.5% target share bested the 20.6% target share for Corey Davis. However, Davis should remain Zach Wilson’s primary target with a 21.3% (No. 37) target share and 31.5% (No. 28) Air Yards Share.
Zach Wilson leads the @nyjets back! All tied up. #TakeFlight
📺: #TENvsNYJ on CBS
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/GbegoQ06bA— NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2021
Against the Falcons, expect most Jets players to feast, especially Jamison Crowder. The risk with Crowder and the Jets involves the league-worst Pace of Play, meaning they’ll have to produce efficiently. Let’s pay close attention to the red zone targets since Crowder already garnered half of his 2020 total of ten (No. 47) red-zone looks. When healthy, Crowder produces like a high-end WR3 with upside for more, and the juicy matchup warrants more attention.
Tight Ends
Tyler Conklin vs. DET
For the two sleepers at tight end, we’re looking at snap share plus routes run. Of course, we’ll add in targets since that factors into the opportunity formula too. Tyler Conklin set a season-high in snap share (91.9%) and routes (30). However, Conklin’s six targets sit behind a season-high eight in Week 3. In Week 3, Conklin earned a 21.1% target share then a 15.8% in Week 4.
Although the target share may not look great, that sits in the back-end TE1 group, with a T.J. Hockenson earning an 18.7% target share for reference. Sure Conklin isn’t a household name, but he provides a safe floor of 4.3 receptions and 36 receiving yards, and a healthy amount of yards after the catch at 73 (No. 12) amongst the position. The usage makes Conklin a deep league sleeper to consider in Week 5.
Ricky Seals-Jones vs. NO
We have a super deep sleeper here with Ricky Seals-Jones. Last week, Logan Thomas left the game early with a hamstring injury. Then Seals-Jones played 92.2% of the snaps and ran 24 routes. Only one tight end boasts a season-long snap share above that – George Kittle. Other tight ends with a snap share above 80% include:
- Tyler Higbee (88.8%)
- Darren Waller (88.2%)
- Travis Kelce (87.9%)
- Noah Fant (85.9%)
- T.J. Hockenson (84.7%)
- C.J. Uzomah (81.9%)
- Cole Kmet (80.7%)
Now it’s only a one-game sample with the Logan Thomas injury causing him to leave early. However, it appears Ricky Seals-Jones went right into the Thomas role. Thomas boasts a 74.8% (No. 11) snap share, 80 (No. 18) routes run, and an 11.5% (No. 24) target share. He also played the most snaps out of the slot at 109 amongst tight ends.
Ricky Seals-Jones played 92.2% of the snaps in Week 4 with Logan Thomas leaving. Seals-Jones ran 24 routes too.
Super deep sleeper, but here’s the list of top-12 tight ends in snap share and routes run per game. #FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/Jgt4N0FqSy
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) October 7, 2021
As we observe Seals-Jones immediately slide into a similar role and usage, it leads to a possible deep-league stash. A sleeper doesn’t always mean we need or should start these players, but rather, sometimes they’re players to stash on the bench depending on roster construction. The list of tight ends with a top-12 snap share and routes include a ton of familiar names in the TE1 group. Not saying Seals-Jones will become a TE1, but it’s something to monitor with the usage and opportunity.
