MLB Hitters & Streamers Forecast
In the past week, the Minor League season began, which led to a couple of big-time call-ups for the Mariners in Logan Gilbert and Jarred Kelenic. They debuted on Thursday, but many fantasy managers already rostered them in all league sizes given their upside. In the past 14 days, the Twins with a .345 wOBA (No. 1) and Cubs with a .336 wOBA (No. 5), both teams look like surprise offenses even with some injuries.
Although the Diamondbacks cooled off a bit, they still have some productive hitters for those in deeper leagues. One series to note for next weekend includes the Diamondbacks playing at Coors Field, which should result in some offense for past and current Week 8 hitter streamer recommendations. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter with any questions. That said, let’s dive in.
Week 7 Streamer Hitter Review
- Pavin Smith (.370 BA, 5 R, 2 RBI)
- Raimel Tapia (.217 BA, 3 R, 1 RBI, 2 SB)
- Josh Rojas (.435 BA, 5 R, 1 SB)
- Tyler Naquin (.263 BA, 2 HR, 3 R, 5 RBI)
- Austin Hays (.292 BA, 4 R, 2 RBI)
- Adolis García (.429 BA, 2 HR, 4 R, 7 RBI, 2 SB)
- Leury García (.308 BA, 1 R, 4 RBI)
- Corey Dickerson (.222 BA, 1 R)
Overall, a solid week outside of Raimel Tapia and Corey Dickerson. However, Dickerson missed a game here and there with some benching versus a lefty. Taipa still provided value with the two steals and he’s hitting .314 over the past 14 days. I’m having major FOMO in all leagues since I missed out and showed skepticism with Adolis García. He crushes the ball.
Easier Week 8 Hitter Matchups
- Los Angeles Angels – 3 vs. CLE, 2 vs. MIN (doubleheader), 3 vs. OAK
- Los Angeles Dodgers 4 vs. ARI, 3 at SF
- Minnesota Twins – 3 vs. CWS, 2 at LAA (doubleheader), 3 at CLE
- New York Yankees – 4 at TEX, 3 vs. CWS
- Tampa Bay Rays – 3 at BAL, 3 at TOR
With the Angels and Twins, it’s about volume with a doubleheader even though they’re seven-inning ones. The Rays hitters have struggled this season with a .297 wOBA (No. 23), and a .269 wOBA (No. 30) over the past 14 days. However, the Orioles and Blue Jays pitchers rank in the bottom half of the league in wOBA allowed. Plus, the Orioles and Blue Jays current home parks rank 4th and 5th per EV Analytics home run park factors, meaning both parks look like hitter-friendly venues for the Rays.
Weekend Series – Diamondbacks at the Rockies
For NFBC type or daily lineup leagues, the weekend series with the Diamondbacks playing in Colorado against the Rockies is one to target. This especially includes Josh Rojas, Pavin Smith, and Asdrúbal Cabrera. Of course, other fringy Rockies hitters could come into play as well.
Tougher Week 8 Hitter Matchups
- Kansas City Royals – 2 vs. MIL, 3 vs. DET
- Milwaukee Brewers – 2 at KC, 3 at CIN
- St. Louis Cardinals – 2 vs. PIT, 3 vs. CHC
Low volume for these three teams remains the issue. When we add in the fact that the Brewers and Royals rank in the bottom ten of the league in wOBA over the past 14 days, it makes us even more hesitant with playing any hitters on those squads outside of the studs.
Week 8 Hitter Streamers
Josh Rojas, 2B/SS/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Josh Rojas extended an 11-game hit streak entering Thursday and it’s safe to say he’s red hot. During that stretch, Rojas has a .429 batting average with four home runs, 12 runs, six RBI, and one steal in 46 plate appearances. The 29% line drive rate for Rojas during his hit streak helps out the batting average, but the 44.4% HR/FB rate looks unsustainable. However, there’s nothing to do either than ride the hot streak into Week 8.
Rojas lowered his chase rate (O-Swing%) to 21.6% compared to 27.1% in 2019 and 29% in 2020. Meanwhile, he’s still making about league average contact with an 83.3% Z-Contact% and 76.3% Contact%. He’s also barreling up the ball with a 9.4% barrel rate and 43.8% hard-hit rate. Unfortunately, they face the Dodgers for four, but Rojas could luck into a solid game or two. The final three games against the Rockies over the weekend should make it worth it.
Niko Goodrum, 2B/SS, Detroit Tigers
This one’s a bit more for steals since Niko Goodrum has four home runs and five steals with a .245 batting average. All five of his steals have come in May, in which he’s hitting .344 with one home run, eight runs, and five RBI. Goodrum and the Tigers will face the Mariners and the Royals for three games each. The Mariners currently allow a .312 wOBA and the Royals allow a .326 wOBA on the season, which ranks in the bottom half of the league. Good matchups plus Goodrum swinging a hot bat should lead to fantasy production, particularly for steals.
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Starlin Castro, 2B/3B, Washington Nationals
In 15-team leagues, Starlin Castro isn’t available to stream unless he’s already on your roster. Especially in batting average leagues, Castro is swinging a hot bat. Castro has an eleven-game hit streak in May with a .425 batting average, three runs, and three RBI. Unfortunately, Castro isn’t providing many counting stats outside of his 16 RBI, but the high batting average stands out for a deep-league hitter.
Outside of 15-team leagues, Starlin Castro is widely available on most platforms – 12.5% on ESPN and 11% on Yahoo. The Nationals face the Cubs for four games, and Cubs pitchers have struggled so far in 2021 with a .333 wOBA allowed, which ranks as the fourth worst in the league. The Cubs also have the 10th worst ERA at 4.39 with several struggling starters. Outside of Trea Turner and Juan Soto, Castro looks like one of the more consistent hitters in the Nationals lineup. Let’s hope he keeps it up heading into Week 8.
Asdrúbal Cabrera, 1B/3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Every year, we (including myself) shrug off Asdrúbal Cabrera. Then somehow his veteran presence finds his way in the middle of the lineup. Well, what do you know, he’s doing that once again for the Diamondbacks as he regularly bats third through fifth in that lineup. Cabrera is hitting well on the season with a .279 batting average, four home runs, 18 runs, and 18 RBI in 132 plate appearances. Over the past two weeks, Cabrera is swinging a hot bat with two home runs, six runs, and eight RBI with a .349 batting average and 183 wRC+.
The main metrics that stand out so far for Cabrera include his lowest chase rate since 2011 with a 26.9% O-Swing% while also recording a career-best 10.7% barrel rate. He’s still making a healthy Z-Contact% right under 90% and producing while playing every day. Same matchups for Josh Rojas above and ride the wave into Week 8.
Manuel Margot, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Another hitter for steals like Niko Goodrum, we have Manuel Margot of the Rays. He’s hitting .222 with three home runs, 13 runs, 17 RBI, and four steals in 125 plate appearances. Unfortunately for Margot, he’s run into a cold streak with a .067 batting average, zero home runs, two runs, one RBI, and two steals in his last 30 plate appearances.
So why the recommendation for Margot? I like the upcoming matchups at the Orioles and in Florida against the Blue Jays. Both ballparks rate as hitter-friendly environments, so as a rare everyday Rays hitter, Margot could heat up. Outside of new and improved Robbie Ray and Hyun-jin Ryu, the other pitcher matchups for the Blue Jays and Orioles aren’t scary.
Joey Wendle, 2B/3B/SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Similar to Manuel Margot, the matchups for the Rays hitters and Joey Wendle look tasty. Although Wendle cooled down a bit, he still has a .277 batting average, three home runs, 21 runs, 16 RBI, and two steals. Wendle is the prototypical Rays utility player that plays all over the infield. Outside of opportunity, nothing screams excitement with his 87.7% Z-Contact% and 78.9% Contact% slightly above the league average. However, both his zone and overall contact rates dropped from a career 91.5% Z-Contact% and 82% Contact%.
Wendle doesn’t typically hit the ball hard, so it’s not worthing noting his mediocre Baseball Savant metrics. It’s a gut feeling about the matchups though the Rays have the worst team wOBA of .269 over the past 14 days. Tread with caution, as both Wendle and Margot should primarily have consideration in 15-team leagues.
Trevor Larnach, OF, Minnesota Twins
It’s difficult to glean too much information from Trevor Larnach’s start in 2021 with a .182 batting average with two runs in 14 plate appearances. However, in his brief Triple-A experience in 2021, Larnach hit two home runs in 15 plate appearances. Although he never hit more than seven home runs in his minor league career, Larnach graded as having average game power with plus-plus raw power.
Trevor Larnach doubles down the right-field line for his first @MLB hit. pic.twitter.com/ulmOO9Uj4Y
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) May 13, 2021
Since the Twins play eight games with two of them as seven-inning double-headers, we expect Larnach to play in almost all of them given the injuries to their outfield. When looking at the projected pitchers, the Twins project to face two lefties in Dallas Keuchel and Sam Hentges. We note that because as a lefty, Roster Resource has Larnach platooning. Feel free to stream Larnach, but only in 15-team leagues.
Miguel Rojas, SS, Miami Marlins
Similar to Starlin Castro, Miguel Rojas is a veteran hitter providing a high batting average. However, Rojas is also scoring runs and filling up the counting stats. Through 141 plate appearances, Rojas has a .286 batting average with two home runs, 24 runs, 14 RBI, and three steals. With Jazz Chisholm out, Rojas tends to bat leadoff or towards the top of the lineup given his batting average and on-base skills.
Miguel Rojas rocks a healthy 23.1% line drive rate, but the 82.3% Z-Contact% and 81% Contact% dropped from his career 91.8% Z-Contact% and 85.2% Contact%. Given his track record, I expect the contact rates overall and in the zone to even out with more batted ball events. The Marlins have three tough matchups and three friendlier matchups against the Phillies and Mets. Heading into Friday, the Mets pitchers rank 1st with a .272 wOBA allowed while the Phillies rank 19th with a .317 wOBA allowed. In May, Rojas is swinging a hot bat with a .366 batting average, two home runs, 12 runs, and seven RBI. Expect him to keep it rolling into Week 8.
