2020 NFL Season-Long Betting Props: Running Back
We use betting odds to influence our fantasy decisions from week to week, so why not add season-long props to our toolbox during draft season? That’s the rationale sparking this series, in which I’m compiling tables of over/under totals on player performance and analyzing what the lines suggest about fantasy production in addition to highlighting spots I’d aim to exploit. In the first part, I wrote about QBs; today, we’ll break down RBs.
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As a reminder, these lines all come from DraftKings Sportsbook, where I’ve pieced together separate categories into a single table with conditional formatting for visualization purposes. Note that, due to injury concerns in camp, the lines for Miles Sanders, Kenyan Drake, Melvin Gordon, and David Montgomery (as denoted by asterisks alongside each player’s name) are off the books at the time I’m writing this piece. In addition, empty cells denote spots where there is no posted prop for a player. Without further ado, here’s the table:
Fantasy Breakdown
I’ve seen occasional consideration of Saquon Barkley against Christian McCaffrey with the first pick. Don’t overthink this one—CMC’s got a significant edge in total yardage, and the other components of fantasy scoring that aren’t accounted for in any of these props (receiving TDs, and in PPR scoring, receptions) skew further toward the Panthers star. Saquon would probably be my #2, followed by Zeke, but you can order those guys either way.
Some interesting spots for TD regression, heading in opposite directions: Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara. Jones scored 19 TDs last season (16 on the ground), and the over/under on his rushing TDs recently dropped from 11.5 to 10.5—I’d even still lean towards the under and am looking elsewhere in the second round of drafts. Kamara, on the other hand, went from 14 rushing TDs in his sophomore campaign to just 5 in 2019; 7.5 feels like an appropriate compromise, though the presence of Taysom Hill in the red zone is undoubtedly a frustrating concern for owners.
It’s possible the unspecified lower-body injury sustained by Miles Sanders could halt his progress, but at the moment, I’m still buying. Sanders has been one of my flagship calls this offseason, and I’m baffled that subtracting his rushing + receiving total from his rushing total would imply just 375 expected receiving yards. He had over 500 receiving yards last season on just 63 targets; with increased volume, why would we be expecting that to drop dramatically? You should be taking advantage of this opportunity to grab shares of Sanders at value.
Don’t look now, but the expectations for Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Leonard Fournette are… almost the exact same. CEH ranks surprisingly low comparatively in Vegas based on where he’s going right now, but though this would be a good time for a reminder that an over/under line is based on a median outcome. Playing for Kansas City (whose win total of 11.5 paces the NFL) has the potential to be substantially more lucrative than Jacksonville (the Jags’ season-long win total of 4.5 ranks dead last), and if considering a full distribution of outcomes for each of these players, CEH’s upper end is what fosters the big difference in appeal. You should know that Chiefs RBs totaled over 1900 yards from scrimmage and 17 TDs in 2019, and how much of that pie Edwards-Helaire gets will determine whether he returns first-round value.
Le’Veon Bell’s yardage totals have dropped in the past week, and while the trade for Kalen Ballage might be a special teams move, it doesn’t appear that Adam Gase is excited about featuring Bell. The one back that in the range who I have targeted throughout this offseason, and would much prefer, is James Conner. His ADP is climbing, as it should—Conner was a top-10 RB even with Mason Rudolph playing before getting hurt last year. Given the Steelers have indicated Conner will be in a bellcow role, projecting him for under 50 yards/game rushing is effectively assuming injury before the season starts. If that’s a major concern for you (or even if not), Benny Snell is going ridiculously late as a handcuff, and I’m content winding up with a piece of this backfield on a high proportion of my teams. Generally, though, my 2020 philosophy is to go after elite RBs early, build up my team elsewhere, and swing back to hammer RB a bit more late.
Favorite Fantasy-Inspired Bets: Miles Sanders over 1375.5 rushing + receiving yards, James Conner over 775.5 rushing yards, Clyde Edwards-Helaire over 1250.5 rushing + receiving yards
Favorite Value RBs: James Conner/Benny Snell, Ronald Jones, Cam Akers, Zack Moss, Damien Harris
