What Season-Long QB Props Tell Us About Fantasy Production

2020 NFL Season-Long Betting Props: Quarterback 

It’s no secret that betting odds can be a valuable tool in evaluating games on a weekly basis. Vegas employs some of the sharpest tools to build spreads and totals that can provide significant insight for making in-season decisions. Season-long win totals, also, provide a good proxy for how competitive a team will be, which can be useful in projecting what types of game scripts they’ll see during the year. 

Quick Links

• WR Props Article
• RB Props Article

However, for all the common use of those lines, individual props go oft-undermentioned as an additional reference to help project player performance in fantasy football. While these markets aren’t necessarily quite as efficient as game spreads (and will have lower limits, in turn), they’re worth adding to our toolbox as drafting season rolls along. In this series, I’ll chart the list of available yardage and touchdown props from DraftKings Sportsbook in some handy tables for you to visualize as well as working through my interpretations of the lines. Today, we’ll start with quarterbacks—here’s my table:

Although there aren’t lines for every single starter in the league, we have over/under for both passing yards and TDs for each player that’s included. I’ve used these numbers, multiplied by typical QB fantasy scoring statistics (1 point per 25 yards, 4 points per TD) to calculate implied passing fantasy points—this column is how I’ve ranked the table. I emphasize the word passing because, as we all know, rushing stats play a substantial part in fantasy performance for many of the top fantasy QBs. However, only a few QBs even have a rushing yardage prop available (Lamar Jackson sits at 975.5 if you’re curious), and we’d have to eyeball at best on rushing TDs. Thus, we focus on throwing equity. 

Fantasy Breakdown

Considering Dak Prescott threw for over 4900 yards in 2019 and now adds CeeDee Lamb to his weapon set, I’m inclined to say that the projection here is too bearish—and yet it places him in the top range of guys that vary in how much value they add with their legs. His NFC East partner Carson Wentz feels likely to rack up more yardage than suggested here if healthy, and knowing that Wentz exceeded 4000 yards with so many pieces injured, you should seriously consider Jalen Reagor and DeSean Jackson as later-round WR depth options. The Eagles and Cowboys are two of my favorite teams to stack in best ball, since you’ll see even the core components slipping from time to time in drafts. 

Aaron Rodgers was cited as a bust QB a handful of times in our FantasyData sleepers and busts staff article, and given we’re past the days of him throwing for scores at an inordinate rate, you can do better when taking a starter late. Daniel Jones forecasts similarly in addition to having averaged 21.5 yards/game rushing (8th among QBs) during his rookie campaign; why not wait an extra round or two and give Jones a stab instead? 

Lamar Jackson led the league with 36 TD passes (on a scorching 9.0% of pass attempts), and the over/under of 26.5 gives us a realistic estimation for where that number may regress to in 2020. Lamar added over 160 fantasy points running, regardless, which means that he’s still a great candidate to finish as the QB1—just don’t expect it to happen in quite the same way. Ryan Tannehill, another remarkably efficient passer last season, is expected to have a drop-off in what his per-game averages would’ve prorated to across 16 contests. That feels fair, and I’d much rather try my luck—even if you have to bite a hint earlier—with Joe Burrow, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, or Cam Newton. For that matter, I can’t wonder if we’re being a bit disrespectful to Cam right now; it’s tough to know where his scores come from but such a low yardage total (for a guy who had thrown for over 3100 yards all eight NFL seasons prior to 2019) seems overly compensatory for injury risk. 

Knowing that any player could miss time due to COVID, it’s probably reasonable for these lines to all skew slightly lower than average, so I certainly wouldn’t go around hammering all the overs. We’re drafting for upside in fantasy, though, which is why I’m not particularly concerned with all the ways a guy could fall short of value—after all, if all you’re investing late draft capital, it’s not too hard to grab someone off waivers. With the former future Hall of Famers such as Tom Brady and Gardner Minshew not even on the books, you should be reminded how deep the position is this year. There are plenty of great ways to attack QB in 2020. 

Favorite Fantasy-Inspired Bets: Dak Prescott over 4275.5 passing yards, Carson Wentz over 3900.5 passing yards, Cam Newton over 2950.5 passing yards 

Favorite Value QBs: Carson Wentz, Matthew Stafford, Daniel Jones, Cam Newton, Jared Goff