2020 NFL Season-Long Betting Props: Wide Receiver
In a short time from now, you’ll be using spreads and game totals to make decisions on who to start on your fantasy teams and play in DFS. But what about, outside of the season, Vegas odds could inform us about what players to target/avoid in drafts? That’s exactly what season-long player props allow us to explore and exploit. If you’re just joining now, this article is the finale of a three-part series: I’ve already done rigorous analysis on QBs and broken down my favorite spots at RB. Here, we’ll make our comprehensive betting table and work through the same process for WRs.
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All lines are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook—using typical fantasy scoring (1 point per 10 receiving yards, 6 points per receiving TD), I’ve created and sorted by a column for implied receiving fantasy points. And while there are no general props posted for reception totals, DraftKings does have a betting market for which player will lead the NFL in catches over the 2020 season. For ease of interpretability, I’ve converted those odds to implied percentages. It’s worth considering that, although over/under props are focused on median outcomes, the reception leader market only values upper-distribution outcomes—however, it’s still an effective reminder that Robert Woods gets more of a bonus in PPR than D.K. Metcalf despite the two hovering in the same ADP range. Here’s the table:
Fantasy Breakdown
There’s a case to be made for a few WRs other than Michael Thomas to finish as the WR1 this season, and I don’t fault anyone who thinks Davante Adams could just as well lead the league in targets, or Julio Jones in yards, or Tyreek Hill in explosive plays. In a vacuum, though, Thomas projects above every other player in every key stat—you should be taking him first off the board and get other guys once he’s gone if you’re volume drafting. That doesn’t preclude you ending up with plenty of shares for someone like Julio, who’s averaged 1565 yards over the past six years. I lean toward addressing RB early in 2020 drafts, but you can’t go wrong with any receiving option in the top tier.
I deliberately eschewed mention of DeAndre Hopkins and Chris Godwin in the prior paragraph, with Hopkins someone I’m particularly inclined to avoid at cost—and even when he slips. The poor performance of Odell Beckham Jr. in Cleveland last year might be overly biasing some people against WRs on new teams, but for me, it’s more than that. The philosophy around distribution of touches in the Air Raid system is not one that sets up well for an alpha WR—here’s Mike Leach talking about balance: “There’s a whole myth about balance, and it’s really stupid… balance is, whether you run it or throw it, getting contributions from all the skill positions.” I won’t have a single share of Hopkins, as talented as he is.
There are a host of exciting options available in rounds 3-6, and even with so many players not having props, you can still see the breadth of the range from the many candidates for 1,000+ yards grouped together. Both over/unders for Allen Robinson feel too low, given he is an alpha in a system that will funnel targets, and I’m buying the over for Odell’s yardage as well considering he nearly reached that mark in 2019 despite battling injury. Thielen, JuJu, Amari, and Calvin Ridley are all guys I’m happy to add to my teams, while Courtland Sutton and Cooper Kupp are two who I’m more bearish on. It’s too crowded in Denver with the additions of the rookies and an emerging Noah Fant; Kupp’s ripe for touchdown regression, so if I had to make a head-to-head pick of the Rams WRs in PPR, I’m going Woods.
Speaking of NFC West WR duos, don’t these numbers seem low on Seattle? As it turns out, they’re likely derived from assuming a steady ~48% of Russell Wilson’s passing yards going to Lockett and Metcalf. However, I’m not so certain the overall passing volume in this offense drops, as Wilson’s yardage prop suggested (just 3900.5 yards), and that makes the derivation onto the receivers questionable. Knowing that he should convert on a higher proportion of the red zone targets he got as a rookie (only 3 scores on 15 targets), D.K. Metcalf could look like an obvious steal by the time we look back next summer.
In some sense, you could argue there’s additional risk baked into WRs with the COVID situation (in addition to potentially missing time from a positive test, having your QB out would put a dent in production), but there’s another angle that also makes me interested in overs this year: preparation time. After the lockout in 2011, we saw an uptick in offensive production and scoring, which makes sense—defense requires a full system to be in tune, whereas an offense can succeed even if an individual peripheral to the play makes a mistake. 2020 will be sloppy, especially to start, but that benefits offenses—and thus, if I were forced to bet on only one side, I’d be erring up. Chark, Gallup, Jamison Crowder, and Marquise Brown are a few more players who I think can exceed these expectations and thereby make for intriguing fantasy picks. Don’t forget about RB, since you can’t start a full lineup of WRs, but it’s certainly a fun year to draft the position.
Favorite Fantasy-Inspired Bets: Allen Robinson over 1050.5 receiving yards/5.5 receiving TDs, Odell Beckham Jr. over 1050.5 receiving yards, D.K. Metcalf over 850.5 receiving yards
Favorite Value WRs: Calvin Ridley, D.J. Chark, Michael Gallup, Marquise Brown, DeSean Jackson, Parris Campbell, Bryan Edwards
