Running Back Busts
When discussing busts, everyone has their opinions on what constitutes one. For me, it’s any player who is going too high in drafts and has a range of outcomes that makes it hard to justify their ADP. While I never guarantee or predict that a player WILL bust, those players seem more likely than not to perform under expectations. What makes drawing up a list like this so difficult is that there is not one player on it whose talent I don’t like. Every single one of these players has the potential upside to make me look like a fool for even considering that they might not live up to the hype. But they all also have the potential to make fools of all those who choose to draft them. Lists like this can change as situations do, but right now, here are four potential running back busts based on ADP.
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Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams (ADP RB7, 16th Overall)
Last season, Rams running back Kyren Williams came out of nowhere to be a league-winning caliber asset. Williams averaged 19.9 half-PPR points per game (2nd in the league.) He also ended the season with five top-12 finishes, including two overall RB1 outings, one during the fantasy championship week. He was, for lack of a better word, a stud.
The question is, can he carry his momentum from last season into 2024?
The talent is there, so why am I suggesting he may finish the season as a bust? For starters, his second-round ADP leaves little room for error, and several red flags should give you pause on investing in such a high draft pick.
The Rams addressed the running back position in this year’s draft when they selected Michigan running back Blake Corum in the third round, No. 83 overall. While that may not be the heaviest of investments, Corum should provide more competition than Williams saw last season. On top of that are the reports of an ongoing foot injury that Williams has been managing. The expectation is for him to be ready. But Williams has a history of lower leg injuries so it’s reasonable to at least consider options in the second round that don’t come with the injury and competition concerns. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Rams pulled back on his usage to keep him healthy and fresh throughout the season and give Corum some much-needed reps. I still like Williams at the right price, but I likely won’t be selecting him in many leagues this year unless he somehow falls to the third.
De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins (ADP RB 10, 22nd Overall)
De’Von Achane was one of the more exciting young players to watch in 2023 when he was on the field. That’s the key: WHEN HE WAS ON THE FIELD. Achane struggled with injuries last season and finished with just 800 rushing yards and 7.8 YPC in only 11 games. Of course, the player ahead of him on the depth chart, Raheem Mostert, just turned 32 years old and has dealt with injuries himself. But the backfield is even more crowded than a year ago. Besides Mostert, Achane will have to fend off speedy rookie Jaylen Wright. Achane should have the leg up (pun intended) on Wright, but the rookie should still be involved which could mean Achane might not get enough touches to justify his second-round ADP.
There’s also the fact that five incredible performances bolster Achane’s numbers from last year, but in five of the other six games he failed to hit double-digit scoring. It’s fair to look at those five-week-winning performances and get seduced by his upside, but will he get the work to show it off? All five of his best performances came in lopsided games and he played 50% or more of the snaps in just four games. It’s hard to see him becoming a consistent fantasy asset unless there’s an injury to Mostert or Wright. If the Dolphins utilize multiple running backs Achane would have to keep up his insane efficiency from last season and that’s not something I’m willing to bet a mid-second-round pick on. I’m sure he will have weeks when he almost single-handedly wins you the week, but those games will be impossible to predict, and players of that mold should not be taken until after round three.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions (ADP RB5, 12th Overall)
This one may seem like an odd choice since by all metrics Jahmyr Gibbs had a productive rookie season. But he was part of one of the best two-headed backfields in the league and to justify his late first-round/early second-round ADP you’d have to be confident that he will get a much larger slice of the pie. I’m not. To his credit, David Montgomery also had a productive season and is not going anywhere. He will continue to be the thunder to Gibbs’ lightning, hurting the upside of both. Gibbs should continue to see a higher snap share (he had a 57% snap share compared to 48% for Montgomery) but Montgomery should continue to be used on early downs and near the goal line.
Last season, Montgomery had 29 rush attempts and 10 rushing touchdowns inside the 10-yard line and Gibbs had 20 rush attempts, four rushing touchdowns, five targets, two receptions, and one receiving touchdown. With his speed and pass-catching ability, Gibbs has more overall upside than Montgomery because he can score from anywhere on the field, but with his goal-line work and nose for the end zone, Montgomery may have more touchdown upside. The reality is that using both running backs worked well for the Lions in 2023 and there is no reason to change it which means they will ultimately cap each other’s ceiling. Last season, Gibbs finished as the RB10 while Montgomery was the RB13. With Montgomery’s ADP being five rounds later he seems like the better value.
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP RB8, 19th Overall)
It’s hard to make the case for Travis Etienne as a fantasy bust since he finished as the 21st-highest scorer and the RB3 in half-PPR scoring last season. So his ADP makes complete sense. But last year’s success was dependent on getting the ball fed to him over and over again. Only Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Rachaad White had more carries than Etienne (267.) But while Etienne had a lot of opportunities, he wasn’t particularly efficient. Among the top 10 running backs in carries Etienne’s 3.78 yards per carry was second lowest, only White (3.64) was lower. While the offensive line is partially to blame for that, Jacksonville has done little to improve the line so it could be one of the worst in the league in 2024. But they also did not do anything to address the backfield in any meaningful way so they could choose to give Etienne bell cow usage again. Although keeping Etienne healthy will be a priority and, behind a weak offensive line, that starts by allowing someone else to shoulder some of the load, even if that someone else doesn’t inspire much confidence. Whether it’s D’Ernest Johnson, Tank Bigsby, or 2024 fifth-rounder Keilan Robinson, someone will get carries other than Etienne. Etienne will still be the top dog, but it’s unclear how much success he can have in that role in 2024.
