5 Breakout First Baseman for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
First base has historically been one of the deepest positions in fantasy, and it’s no different in 2024. Even if you miss out on the elite production of Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, and Bryce Harper in the early rounds, there are plenty of players going later in drafts who are ready to take a step forward. Here are five first-basemen who I think will break out this season.
*Note: The ADP is FantasyPros’ consensus, not including ESPN due to their ADPs being very off at the moment.
Triston Casas, Red Sox
2023 stats: 132 G / 66 R / 24 HR / 65 RBI / 0 SB / .263 AVG / .367 OBP / .490 SLG
ADP: 90.0 (1B 10)
Triston Casas had a very respectable final stat line for his rookie season, which was good for 3rd place in AL Rookie of the Year voting. His full stats don’t show how bad he was during the first couple of months of the season and how dominant he was from June 1st onwards.
He truly transformed himself after the bad start to the season, becoming one of the most dangerous hitters in the game. His 0.953 OPS from June 1st onwards was the eleventh-highest of all players, placing him ahead of names such as Kyle Tucker, Juan Soto, and Bryce Harper. It’s safe to say Casas already broke out in the second half of last season, but if he repeats that level of production for the entire 2024 season, it will launch him into fantasy stardom. His second-half stat line makes him look like a bargain version of Freddie Freeman, available seven rounds later.
Spencer Torkelson, Tigers
2023 Stats: 159 G / 88 R / 31 HR / 94 RBI / 3 SB / .233 AVG / .313 OBP / .446 SLG
ADP: 104.8 (1B 12)
Spencer Torkelson finally started to live up to the hype in 2023 after a disappointing rookie season in 2022. He crushed the baseball, putting up a 50.9% hard-hit rate, 14.1% barrel rate, and 91.8 average exit velocity. Those numbers place him in the 94th, 89th, and 87th percentile in the league, showing that his 70-grade power rating as a prospect wasn’t a fluke. As good as he was last season, there’s no reason to think that the former first-overall pick can’t take another step forward in 2024. His wOBA last season was .326, significantly lower than his xwOBA of .352. That difference of .026 would make him the sixth-unluckiest hitter in the league. His xBA was also .253 (compared to .233 actual average), and his xSLG was .487 (compared to .446). Torkelson is a great value at his current ADP for someone who is one small step away from becoming one of the league’s premier power hitters.
Josh Naylor, Guardians
2023 Stats: 121 G / 52 R / 17 HR / 97 RBI / 10 SB / .308 AVG / .354 OBP / .489 SLG
ADP: 124.5 (1B 15)
Josh Naylor is another player who you could argue already broke out last season, but his counting stats were limited due to an oblique injury that sidelined him for over a month. Despite playing only 121 games and hitting only 17 home runs, he still managed to drive in 97 runs thanks to a .363 batting average with runners in scoring position. That may not be sustainable, but he should still provide RBI at a higher-than-average rate.
His Baseball Savant player page shows that despite having a high 39.5% chase rate, he only struck out 13.7% of the time. Even when he chases pitches, he is not usually whiffing at them. It is tough to find true standouts at batting average later in fantasy drafts, but Naylor is exactly that. He is currently being drafted in the 11th round on average, but maintaining his 2023 levels of production for all of 2024 would make him a lock to finish as a top-10 first baseman.
Vinnie Pasquantino, Royals
2023 Stats: 61 G / 24 R / 9 HR / 26 RBI / 0 SB / .247 AVG / .324 OBP / .437 SLG
ADP: 149.3 (1B 19)
Vinnie Pasquantino was one of the most popular breakout candidates of last offseason, but a torn labrum crushed those hopes two months into the season. There isn’t much to like about his final stat line, but I don’t think it’s time to write him off. He started strong in 2023 but took a quick decline towards the end of his season. It’s very possible that he was playing through shoulder discomfort before he went on the IL, and he was showing signs of the long-awaited breakout in April.
In both 2022 and early 2023, he showed he can consistently hit for a high average and get on base at an elite clip. He even showed early signs of increasing his power at the start of the last season. The counting stats will leave something to be desired due to the team he plays on, but the Royals are an up-and-coming young team that should continue to improve offensively. I would be confident to leave a draft with Pasquantino as my starting first basemen, but an even better strategy is to pair him with one of the earlier breakout candidates as a 1B/MI duo.
Jeimer Candelario, Reds
2023 Stats: 140 G / 77 R / 22 HR / 70 RBI / 8 SB / .251 AVG / .336 OBP / .471 SLG
ADP: 221.8 (1B 24)
Jeimer Candelario has been in the league since 2016, and he has consistently shown the type of player he is. His potential to breakout this season isn’t due to new skills he’s developed, but where he will be playing. Last season was his first year outside of the power-suppressing Comerica Park, and he put up his best power numbers since 2020 playing for the Nationals and Cubs. After signing a 3-year $45 million contract with the Reds, he will be in the best offensive environment of his career by far. He hit eight balls last year that weren’t home runs, but would have been in Great American Ballpark. Nick Castellanos took a similar path as Candelario, moving from Detroit to Chicago to Cincinnati, where he went from a mid-20s home run hitter to hitting 34 in 2021. Hitting in the heart of the Reds’ lineup, Candelario has a clear path to a 25 home run and 150 R+RBI season. With an ADP in the 200s, you don’t have to risk much to draft him for your middle infield spot.
