5 Breakout National League Pitchers
The pitching landscape this year provides some surefire studs as well as several potential breakout candidates who could help give your squad depth, and if all goes right, even become key cogs in your fantasy success. Each of the players below has shown signs that their arrow is pointing up and that 2024 could be the season they put it all together. Also, most of these players comes with an ADP that is of very little risk which is an important component when you’re taking a chance on a player who could just as easily falter as succeed. These are not the only players with breakout potential this upcoming season but they are the ones for whom I think the breakout is most likely. Be sure to keep them in mind come draft time.
Quick Links
- 5 Breakout First Baseman for 2024
- Fantasy Baseball: 5 Breakout Second Basemen in 2024
- Five Breakouts Shortstops in 2024
- Top 10 Catcher Rankings 2024
- Under the Radar Offseason MLB Signings That Could Have an Impact
Bobby Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers
In 2023, the Dodgers relied on young arms, like Bobby Miller, for success. Miller struck out 119 in 124.1 IP with an ERA of 3.76 and an 11-4 record in 22 starts. Both his sinker and fastball can get up into the triple digits, which he then complements with a solid changeup. The Dodgers did add Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto which could make a big difference in both the rotation and the success of this pitching group. Still, if Miller is able to continue his growth, he could be a major contributor to a Los Angeles Dodgers group that could be their best in years. With an ADP around 74th overall, and the 26th pitcher off the board, Miller isn’t a cheap investment, but as long as we don’t see a decline he should return great value at that price, and if he improves, as I think he will, he could be a steal.
Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs
It would be reasonable to claim that Justin Steele’s breakout already came in 2022. That season he had a 3.18 ERA across 119.0 IP (24 starts). He followed that up with another solid season in 2023 with a 16-5 record, 176 strikeouts, and a 3.06 ERA over 30 starts (173.1 IP.) Yet, with an ADP that fluctuates anywhere from 94 to 103, he appears to be undervalued. While these numbers look good there are some reasons for concern that may be contributing to his lower ADP. First, he relies heavily on just two pitches. Steele has a four-seamer and a slider which combined for over 96% of his pitches thrown in 2023. Steele also seemed to tire as the season progressed. He boasted an ERA of 3.41 in August, but that spiked to 4.91 in September. He also had a 28.4% K% and 4.5% BB% in the final two months, showing that he is capable of finding success late in the season. This should help alleviate any concerns about Steele’s effectiveness over an entire season. Plus, his control is excellent, and if he can put it all together this year, and also avoid any late-season decline, he will be worth the investment.
Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies
In his first start of the year last season against the Rockies, Christopher Sanchez got off to a, well, rocky start, allowing three runs in 4.1 IP and finishing with a 6.23 ERA. But after being promoted in June, the left-handler began to settle in nicely finishing with 96 strikeouts over 99.1 IP, with just 16 walks, and a respectable 3.44 ERA. While these numbers made him an important asset in the Phillies’ pitching rotation last season, they also made him a name to watch coming into 2024. If he were on another team there would still be reason for excitement after what we saw late in the season last year, but knowing that he is going to be part of a strong Phillies team should only help his fantasy value. While his fastball is not special, he minimizes that by utilizing a solid changeup in combination with it that can be a major problem for right-handed hitters. Sanchez is not currently being drafted in the top 100 pitchers, making him a great late-round target who could pay dividends if the breakout does come.
Mackenzie Gore, Washington Nationals
With a first-round pedigree, the expectations for Mackenzie Gore were always going to be high, and while his development has been a bit up and down, there have been flashes of excellence. After a brief stint with the Padres in 2022 he was an important piece in a blockbuster deal with the Nationals that included outfielder Juan Soto (who has since been traded again, this time to the Yankees.) He debuted with his new team last season and was a frustratingly difficult player to pin down. There was a lot to like but then also reasons for concern. Gore had eight games allowing four or more runs and 10 games where he allowed 0-1 run. He did seem to get a bit more consistent as the season progressed and finished with 151 strikeouts and an ERA of 4.42. If Washington wants to continue to be competitive they are going to need players like Gore to take major steps forward. I believe he can do that in 2024.
Kyle Harrison, San Francisco Giants
Kyle Harrison is arguably, or maybe it’s not even arguable, the biggest prospect in the Giants organization. As such, the team took their time getting him to the big leagues. When he did make his debut in 2023, it was a mixture of potential and disappointment. In seven starts the results were uneven. While he did pitch 6.1 scoreless innings that included 11 strikeouts against the Reds, he also allowed four home runs and six runs in 5.2 innings against San Diego. There is the chance that the Giants choose to continue to take a cautious approach with his development, but it’s just as likely that for a team looking for someone to step up, Harrison will get more opportunities than expected. Harrison will enter 2024 at just 22 years of age with a lot of upside. Still technically a rookie, Harrison’s shortcomings could limit his fantasy ceiling, but with an ADP around 280 overall, there’s very little risk in drafting him.
