One of the new features this year at Fantasy Data is the Advanced Metrics charts. This adds another edge for us to analyze data and make more informed decisions on draft day. For Bestball players, draft days are as many times you want each day. This gave me the motivation to comb through these Advanced Metrics to uncover some high upside QB plays, and if possible, which WRs to stack with them so that I would have another tool in my belt for upcoming drafts. My focus quickly honed in on the Air Yards and Deep Ball Passing sections of the chart, since this is where your QB (and WR) can rack up a bunch of points on just one deep TD strike. Here are a few QBs that stood out for me, and are worth targeting this year in Bestball drafts. I have also analyzed the WR data to see if there are any good stacks we can find to partner up with the QBs discussed. Stacking is a common strategy for DFS, but can also be utilized in Bestball to give our teams leverage when the QB and one of his targets has a great game. Let’s have a look.
7. Jameis Winston, Buccaneers
Winston’s Air Yards Per Game was #1, and his Air Yards Per Attempt was #2 to his old teammate Ryan Fitzpatrick. Now, the Bucs have changed coaching staffs, but the change should not have any negative impact on the data we’re seeing for the last two years in Tampa. Bruce Arians is a passer friendly coach, Tampa still hasn’t found an answer at RB, and the defense could still be a liability this year. Plus, they play in the NFC South, where you have to score a lot to have a shot at the win. Winston comes in at 8th on the chart with 4.82 Deep Ball Passing Attempts Per Game (DPAG). His Deep Completion Percentage (DCMP%) is 16th on the chart, which is fine since we are looking for the volume first and foremost. Winston has the lead in one more stat on this chart with his 11.1 Distance Per Deep Attempt. Winston’s Air Yards and Deep Passing is perfectly complimented with the top WR on the chart. Mike Evans had 78.5 Air Yards Per Game (AYG), 14.6 Air Yards Per Reception (AYR), and 9.0 AIr Yards Per Target (AYT). Those rank first, first, and second for all WRs on the chart in 2018. This isn’t a cheap combo but is one well worth targeting. Mike Evans is going toward the back half of round 2 and Jameis Winston typically goes in the 10th or 11th round. You can add the Bucs second WR, Chris Godwin, to leverage Winston’s deep passing tendencies, but he’ll cost you a 4th or 5th round pick. If taking this trio as a stack, I’d plan on taking an RB in Rd1, if one makes sense, and again in round 3 so you don’t short yourself at that position.
6. Matt Ryan, Falcons
After seeing what Koetter has been doing with Mike Evans as a deep passer the past few years, my attention went over to his new employer in Atlanta where Matt Ryan has already established himself as a pretty good deep ball passer himself. Koetter has worked with Matt Ryan before and has coaxed 3 seasons of more than 4500 yards passing from Matty Ice. A look at the Air Yards chart shows Matt Ryan’s 179.8 AY/G is 3rd best on the list behind Koetter’s last two QBs, Winston and Fitzpatrick. Ryan also has 4.7 AYA, which ranks 5th on the list, tied with Jared Goff. The Falcons play their first 9 games in stadiums that can have a closed roof and will play 13 times on the year in an indoor stadium. This gives them an edge in the passing game by not having to face any weather issues. When looking at Ryan’s WRs Julio Jones stands out on talent alone, but his 76.7 AYG also 2nd on the chart making him an excellent stacking partner. This pair will cost a top 15 (or so) pick for Julio, and then a 9th rounder to get Ryan. 9th round has been too rich for me most of the time, but if you do a lot of drafts, you’ll want some exposure to this duo.
Continue Reading: 7 Best Ball QB Values Using Advanced Player Metrics…
Become a member at FantasyData and dominate the 2019 NFL Season! FantasyData has created two new fantasy football metric pages for each QB, RB, WR, and TE. They feature sortable columns of statistics like Air Yards, Protection Rate, Money Throws, Pressured cmp%, Deep Ball Passing cmp%, Target Breakdown, Redzone, Endzone Data, Hog Rate, Snap Share, Juke Rate, Evaded Tackle Rate, Drops, Yards Created, Fantasy Points per Target, Att and so much more..
5. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
When talking about deep passers, Patrick Mahomes is probably first in our minds of who we should be targeting. After all, he did have the most DPAG chucking it up 5.69 times per game for the 8th most AYG (156.4) and 8th longest Distance Per Deep Attempt (9.2). Mahomes is going in the 4th round on average in Bestball10s drafts during the last two weeks of July, so you’re going to have to factor opportunity cost in with him. Mahomes is tethered to arguably the most explosive WR in the league, Tyreek Hill. Hill’s Air Yards are good, but he can also create long run after the catch plays. Hill is uber-efficient, ranking 3rd in Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) with 2.98 and 4th in Yard Per Target (YPT) with 10.8. Stacking Mahomes and Hill is the most expensive stack right now, with Hill going anywhere between the middle of the 1st round to the back half of round 2. If you’re looking to splurge on the Chiefs offense, you could also grab the consensus #1 TE Travis Kelce in the 1st or 2nd and hope you hit on your Zero-RB picks.
4. Baker Mayfield, Browns
The Browns brought in former Buccaneers Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken this year. Monken was with Dirk Koetter in Tampa for the last 3 years and called plays for 15 games last year, which lead to Winston and Fitzpatrick’s huge Air Yard totals. Mayfield’s 5.36 DPAG ranked 5th last year, with each attempt traveling 9.5 yards per (4th), and he completed over 41% of those throws (9th). Those are his season averages, but Baker’s numbers got better once Kitchens took over the offense halfway through the season.
Baker Mayfield ranks after Freddie Kitchens took over (Week 9) last year:
Net yards/pass play: 1st
YPA: 2nd
Explosive plays: 5thA deep dive into the numbers of what he did well, what he can work on and what’s in store now that he has OBJ to throw to.https://t.co/HgU9Hnek56
— Sheil Kapadia (@SheilKapadia) July 18, 2019
The Browns wisely made a move to bring in a player that could take advantage of Baker’s arm talent by trading for Odell Beckham. Beckham’s 63.5 AYG ranked 4th last year. Baker and Beckham should make an explosive duo next year, and the Browns have other talents on the roster to keep defenses from focusing all their attention on just Odell. If you’re stacking these guys in Bestball, you’ll have to take Beckham in the 2nd (sometimes 1st) round, while Baker goes in the 8th. One of the fun things about Bestball though is having so many roster spots you can take shots at guys lower on the depth chart and hope they pan out. One such player I have taken a shot on as a last round dart throw has been Rashard Higgins. According to ProFootballFocus.com data, 9 of Higgins 51 receptions last year (0.69/G – 15th in NFL) were of the deep variety. If OBJ is too expensive for you, you can always try Baker and Higgins and see if that pops.
3. Deshaun Watson, Texans
Deshaun Watson’s offensive line let him down last year, and he had to play through a collapsed lung at one point during year. His deep passing numbers dipped as a result. But when we dig into 2017 data, we can see his 5.71 DPAG and 2.57 Deep Completions Per Game ranked him 2nd and 1st in those categories through the seven games he played as a rookie. If his Offensive Line can buy him some more time, he’s got two top-flight deep ball weapons with De’Andre Hopkins and Will Fuller to target. Hopkins’ 76.1 AYG was third last year, and Hopkins and Fuller were 6th and 7th in AYT last year with 7.5 and 7.4 AYT, respectively. This is another high capital stack with Hopkins usually going within the top 7 picks, and Watson and Fuller both are averaging a 7th round draft position.
2. Carson Wentz, Eagles
1. Josh Allen, Bills
So far we’ve covered a lot of high-cost QBs and stacking partners, but what about a lower capital QB? Josh Allen’s 5.42 DPAG ranked him 4th among QBs last year, but his 26% completion rate on the deep ball dragged the rest of the stats down. He did have the 2nd highest Distant Per Deep Attempt with 10.9, which is a positive. Allen’s main deep target last year was Robert Foster, who had 70.2 AYG, which would have ranked him 4th on the chart if he had qualified. Foster remains in Buffalo as a 3rd or 4th passing option coming into the season, and the Bills brought in another quality deep threat by signing free agent John Brown. Brown’s 14.1 AYR ranked 3rd last year behind Evans and Jackson. There will be times when Foster and Brown are on the field together and the defense will have their hands full. Perhaps having two deep strike options may help Allen improve his completion percentage on those throws. The Bills also signed free agent slot receiver Cole Beasley to handle some of the underneath stuff with Zay Jones. Buffalo drafted a solid pass-catching back, Devin Singletary, and still, have Shady McCoy (who can catch) on the roster…for now. The Bills have surrounded Allen with enough weapons that taking a shot on him at his 13th round ADP gives us a cheap buy to chase some upside. Ideally, you can get Allen and Brown back to back in the 12th and 13th round, but I’ve seen Brown climbing into the 10th round in some drafts lately. Still, this is the lowest amount of capital we have to sink into a stack, with Foster as a third option, going in the 14th round and falling. Even if Allen struggles a bit again in the passing ranks, he has the rushing floor to keep his fantasy numbers up most weeks.
Final Thoughts
Researching the deep passing game was a fun exercise but is not the only way to capture upside. However, based on the capital it takes to get these players and seeing the stats they have achieved, we can see that deep passing provides a high amount of upside for our selections in fantasy. In Bestball we are chasing that upside because we have extra roster spots to fall back on. Spike weeks and high season-ending totals are what we’re looking for, and this group of QBs, along with their receiving options provide that opportunity. Two other guys that stand out, but were not discussed here are Russell Wilson, who has been among the elite down-fielder passers and efficiency leader for years. Wilson has 2 big boom targets with Lockett and Metcalf now but has a coaching staff that cripples his volume. The other one worth noting is Mitchell Trubisky. He’s a low capital draft pick in Bestball and had 5.21 DPAG and 1.93 DPCG last year. Both of those are higher-end numbers. He gets a healthier Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller to start the year with this year and is playing in an offensive system that will allow him to spread the ball around a bit and make plays. Trubisky is also a bit of a scrambler and can add a few points per game with his feet.
