7 Overvalued Fantasy Players to Avoid in 2021
Players to Avoid in 2021 Fantasy Football Drafts
One of the best ways to build a championship-caliber fantasy football roster is to load up on undervalued sleepers throughout the draft process. But equally integral, if less popular, is knowing which overhyped players are unlikely to bring a return on their ADP investment.
These overvalued players might be solid options in the right context, but there may be a variety of reasons that they should be approached with extreme caution in fantasy football drafts. Recency bias, new offensive systems, or simply being overhyped on Twitter are just a few of the myriad reasons a player can be a poor choice at their peak ADP.
Here are some of those overrated players ahead of the peak 2021 fantasy football draft season and why savvy managers should look elsewhere this summer.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB) Miami Dolphins
Now that Ryan Fitzpatrick is plying his trade in the nation's capital, we know that Tua Tagovailoa will open his sophomore season as Miami's unquestioned starter. The Dolphins did a fantastic job adding intriguing pass-catching talent to the fold and that has many football fans excited about Tagovailoa's 2021 prospects.
A lot of that hype comes from Tagovailoa's reputation as an elite dual-threat quarterback, but he didn't run all that much in his rookie season. He only topped 20 rushing yards in three of his eight starts and never ran for more than 35 in a single game.
In fact, Tua was less of a run-pass option quarterback and more of a traditional pocket passer in Year One. And, while he was a rookie, some of those advanced passing metrics weren't impressive. Tagovailoa ranked 30th in fantasy points per game among all QBs that started more than half of their team's games.
He also ranked 22nd with 3.7 air yards per attempt, 23rd with a 36.4% deep ball completion rate, and 32nd with a 51.3% completion percentage in the red zone. 35% of Tua's total fantasy points occurred in just two games- both losses to Kansas City and Buffalo where the Dolphins padded their stats in futile come-from-behind efforts.
There are simply too many safer options for fantasy managers to consider ahead of Tagovailoa this season, which makes the second-year signal-caller little more than a decent streaming option or QB2 in Superflex formats.
David Montgomery (RB) Chicago Bears
Montgomery really came through in his sophomore season, finishing 2020 as the No. 4 overall running back in PPR scoring. But a lot of that production came via passing targets that customarily would have went to Tarik Cohen, who was lost of the season in Week 3. Cohen has averaged 98 targets, 75 receptions and 919 scrimmage yards in 3 seasons under Matt Nagy and should be fully healthy for Week 1.
The Bears also upgraded their tumultuous quarterback play, adding veteran Andy Dalton and trading up for Justin Fields, who has the chance to be a major factor as a runner. A more balanced attack could lead to less reliance on Montgomery, who ranked just 24th among running backs with 0.83 fantasy points per opportunity last season.
With far fewer opportunities to rack up targets, Montgomery will have a tough time commanding enough touches to put together another RB1 season in PPR formats, and that's precisely where he is being drafted via his early ADP, as a top-10 back. Montgomery will probably be a strong weekly RB2, but the real value is simply waiting 8-9 rounds and scooping up Cohen for a song.
Jody Smith
Jody is a member of both the Pro Football Writer's of America (PFWA) and Fantasy Sports Writer's Association (FSWA) and has been covering the NFL and fantasy football for over a decade. Jody won FantasyPro's Most Accurate Expert contest and also garnered the FSTA's accuracy award in 2012. A Houston native, Jody has covered the Texans locally since 2016 for both digital and radio audiences. Past writing stops include CBS Sportsline, Gridiron Experts, Pro Football Focus, Fanball, FantasyPro's. Jody is also a frequent guest on SiriusXM and Houston radio and his work regularly appears in print on newsstands each summer.