Players to Avoid in 2021 Fantasy Football Drafts
One of the best ways to build a championship-caliber fantasy football roster is to load up on undervalued sleepers throughout the draft process. But equally integral, if less popular, is knowing which overhyped players are unlikely to bring a return on their ADP investment.
These overvalued players might be solid options in the right context, but there may be a variety of reasons that they should be approached with extreme caution in fantasy football drafts. Recency bias, new offensive systems, or simply being overhyped on Twitter are just a few of the myriad reasons a player can be a poor choice at their peak ADP.
Here are some of those overrated players ahead of the peak 2021 fantasy football draft season and why savvy managers should look elsewhere this summer.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB) Miami Dolphins
Now that Ryan Fitzpatrick is plying his trade in the nation’s capital, we know that Tua Tagovailoa will open his sophomore season as Miami’s unquestioned starter. The Dolphins did a fantastic job adding intriguing pass-catching talent to the fold and that has many football fans excited about Tagovailoa’s 2021 prospects.
A lot of that hype comes from Tagovailoa’s reputation as an elite dual-threat quarterback, but he didn’t run all that much in his rookie season. He only topped 20 rushing yards in three of his eight starts and never ran for more than 35 in a single game.
In fact, Tua was less of a run-pass option quarterback and more of a traditional pocket passer in Year One. And, while he was a rookie, some of those advanced passing metrics weren’t impressive. Tagovailoa ranked 30th in fantasy points per game among all QBs that started more than half of their team’s games.
He also ranked 22nd with 3.7 air yards per attempt, 23rd with a 36.4% deep ball completion rate, and 32nd with a 51.3% completion percentage in the red zone. 35% of Tua’s total fantasy points occurred in just two games- both losses to Kansas City and Buffalo where the Dolphins padded their stats in futile come-from-behind efforts.
There are simply too many safer options for fantasy managers to consider ahead of Tagovailoa this season, which makes the second-year signal-caller little more than a decent streaming option or QB2 in Superflex formats.
David Montgomery (RB) Chicago Bears
Montgomery really came through in his sophomore season, finishing 2020 as the No. 4 overall running back in PPR scoring. But a lot of that production came via passing targets that customarily would have went to Tarik Cohen, who was lost of the season in Week 3. Cohen has averaged 98 targets, 75 receptions and 919 scrimmage yards in 3 seasons under Matt Nagy and should be fully healthy for Week 1.
The Bears also upgraded their tumultuous quarterback play, adding veteran Andy Dalton and trading up for Justin Fields, who has the chance to be a major factor as a runner. A more balanced attack could lead to less reliance on Montgomery, who ranked just 24th among running backs with 0.83 fantasy points per opportunity last season.
With far fewer opportunities to rack up targets, Montgomery will have a tough time commanding enough touches to put together another RB1 season in PPR formats, and that’s precisely where he is being drafted via his early ADP, as a top-10 back. Montgomery will probably be a strong weekly RB2, but the real value is simply waiting 8-9 rounds and scooping up Cohen for a song.
David Johnson (RB) Houston Texans
Overall, Johnson was a solid fantasy option last season, putting up double-digit PPR points in 10 of the 11 games in which he played a full allotment of snaps. He also managed to find the end zone eight times in his 12 starts, which was impressive for a moribund Texans’ squad that won four games and was 31st in rushing attempts.
However, things actually look worse for Houston in 2021, a team that could be an underdog in all 17 of their games. That’s a lot of negative game scripts for an aging, oft-injured running back, and looking at FantasyData’s advanced RB efficiency metrics tells us that the bottom could drop off quickly.
Among all running backs in 2020, Johnson ranked 32nd in juke rate, 28th in tackles evaded, and 23rd in yards created per attempt. Those are signs of a running back who lacks the ability to create more, and that’s a bad sign in an offense that looks like it could be a bottom-5 unit in 2021. The Texans also signed veterans Mark Ingram, Rex Burkhead, and Phillip Lindsay to potentially take work away from Johnson this season.
While Johnson did post decent RB2 numbers last season, the odds are against him doing that on this team, especially if QB Deshaun Watson is absent, as expected. Johnson should be viewed as little more than a fantasy reserve in 2021, not an RB2 or potential flex starter.
Mike Evans (WR) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Despite a career-low of 109 targets and 1,006 receiving yards, Mike Evans still posted a WR1 campaign last season thanks to a career-best 13 touchdown receptions. Evans has never failed to exceed 1,000 receiving yards or 210-plus fantasy points in any of his seven pro seasons but he’s going to have a difficult time repeating another top-12 campaign due to volume. Evans played all 16 games a year ago and still had his lowest target output ever. And that was with Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, and TE O.J. Howard each missing significant time. Evans saw five or fewer targets in six of Tampa’s 16 games and he was held to 50 or fewer receiving yards in 8-of-16. Without those lofty TD numbers that salvaged his value, Evans would have wrecked many rosters. Now that the defending champions are fully healthy, Evans won’t command as many red-zone looks and Tom Brady is more likely to funnel the ball all around rather than feed his top wideout. Evans should still be considered a decent WR2, but not one to target in the fourth round.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR) Cleveland Browns
Few wideouts have come into the league and been as dominant from Day One as Odell Beckham, but 2016 was five long years ago. Since then, Beckham has battled injuries and seen his production tail off after being traded to Cleveland. Following three consecutive WR1 campaigns to open his career, Beckham has only managed to qualify as a WR2 once in 2018. Yet every season fantasy managers hope that this is the year where the magic is rekindled and Beckham is a popular WR2/3 target in the middle rounds. But considering Beckham is coming off of a torn ACL and continuing to be featured in a Cleveland offense that has been bottom-10 in passing in each of the past two seasons almost guarantees that Beckham won’t see anywhere near enough volume to justify his current ADP. The only thing that could possibly salvage OBJ’s fantasy value is touchdowns, but considering he has logged just nine TD receptions in his past 39 games, there’s little chance that will happen in a Cleveland offense that boasts two outstanding running backs and one of the best run-blocking lines in football.
A.J. Green (WR) Arizona Cardinals
Volume certainly wasn’t an issue for A.J. Green last season. The ninth-year pro ranked 32nd among all wide receivers with 104 targets, but what Green accomplished with all those opportunities can only be summed up as an unmitigated disaster. Green ranked 62nd with 47 grabs, 66th with 523 receiving yards, and scored just two times. The advanced metrics paint an even scarier picture. Green finished dead last with a lowly 5.0 yards per target average and was fourth-lowest with 1.03 yards per route run. Of course, some of those lowly figures were certainly a result of running routes with Brandon Allen and Ryan Finley under center, but Green, who will be 33 when the season kicks off, looked sluggish throughout the season and had trouble creating separation. While Kyler Murray offers a big upgrade at quarterback, Green will have a tough time being fantasy-relevant buried behind DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore, James Conner, and Chase Edmonds. Green is little more than an end-of-roster speculative pick at the end of fantasy drafts that exceed the standard 16 rounds.
Evan Engram (TE) New York Giants
Every tight end that exceeded 100 targets last season racked up at least six touchdowns and over 175 PPR points, except for Engram, who commanded the fourth-most targets (109) and managed a meager one TD and 143 PPR points. In fact, Engram hit double-digit targets four times last season but only topped 65 receiving yards one time. Engram only came down with 4-of-24 (16.7%) contested targets- which ranked dead last among tight ends. He also ranked 27th in yards per target (6.0), 29th in fantasy points per target (1.29), and committed 10 drops, which were the second-most. In all, 2020 was a brutal year for Engram and there is no way he’ll get anywhere near triple-digit opportunities in 2021. The Giants added Kyle Rudolph to directly take snaps away from Engram, plus signed Kenny Golladay to act as the team’s new No. 1 receiver and used a second-round selection on Kadarius Toney. Engram may struggle to receive half of the targets he got last season and it appears his days as a starting-caliber fantasy tight end are over.
