Calvin Ridley Fantasy 2023
Calvin Ridley last played NFL football in 2021 when he played five games and then announced he was stepping away from football to work on his mental health. He didn’t play another game in 2021. He was later suspended for the entire 2022 season for betting on games during the 2021 season. All of a sudden sports experts, fantasy football enthusiasts, and casual viewers started speculating that Ridley would be yet another tale of a uniquely gifted athlete breaking the rules, and in doing so failing to reach his full potential. Players like Josh Gordon and Martavis Bryant came to mind. Talented, young receivers who seemingly blew their chance to go from good to great. But just when the fantasy community had forgotten about him, news broke that Ridley had been traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The speculation, once again, began. Did this mean the NFL was getting ready to reinstate him? In March of this year, about one year since being suspended, he was reinstated and back on the fantasy football radar. The feelings surrounding Ridley run the gamut. There are those who remember his top five finish at the position back in 2020 and hold out hope that he still has that type of upside. Others are skeptical that someone who hasn’t played in two years will be able to return to form. The truth is no one knows how Ridley will perform. At this point it is all speculation. What is known is that if he is even close to the player he was back then, he could be a steal, and a major breakout candidate.
Current ADP
- ADP: #18
- WR ADP: #42
WR18 might seem like an optimistic ADP for a player that we haven’t seen on the field in two years. But if the reports out of camp are to be believed, it is warranted. “On another level” and “dominating” have been used to describe his performance. It has also been pointed out that his pristine route running (a quality of his game for which he has always been recognized) is still very much in tact. This has led to franchise QB Trevor Lawrence often looking his way, building that much needed chemistry if they are to have any success during the season. Some argue that his ADP should be closer to that of a WR3 than a WR2, but I disagree. The Jacksonville Jaguars will possess one of the best overall offenses in the league in 2023. Ridley, as the WR1 on the team should be a big part of that. Anyone thinking he’ll be the WR2 for the Jaguars due to Christian Kirk’s success last year have not seen either man play. Until coming to the Jaguars, Kirk was never asked to be THE GUY. He served that role well for the team last year, leading to a top 12 finish in PPR, but Ridley is simply a more gifted athlete, a better route runner, and a more prototypical WR1 than Kirk. If a player like Kirk can finish in the top 12 there is no reason a player like Ridley can’t finish within the top 20. I understand the rationale behind ranking him as a low end WR2, but in reality, based on talent and opportunity he is far more likely to finish closer to a WR1. If the positive buzz continue you could see his ADP rise a bit, but I think there will still be enough hesitation surrounding him until we actually see him play in a game in order to depress where he goes in drafts.
Fantasy Insight
The Jacksonville Jaguars were top seven in pass attempts last year with 584. With another offseason of development for Lawrence, the additions of Ridley, 2023 first round draft pick offensive tackle Anton Harrison, and Travis Etienne Jr. in what truly amounts to his second full season after missing his entire rookie season due to injury, I expect that number to rise. While the numbers for all position players should improve, I expect Ridley to be the biggest beneficiary of this additional volume. While it’s true that Ridley didn’t really emerge as a true WR1 until Julio Jones started his decline, there is no wide receiver on this Jaguars roster that is anywhere near the talent of Jones. No one will threaten the ability of Ridley to demand targets, but there are enough weapons that opposing defenses will find it difficult to focus solely on Ridley. Any double teaming of him will leave holes in other places. I expect Ridley to succeed not because he is THE GUY, but because he’s not the ONLY guy.
Fantasy Value
It’s difficult to assess any potential value in drafting Ridley, because there are so many unknowns. If the reports out of camp are to be believed then even as a mid WR2 in the fourth round of drafts he could be a steal. When we last saw him play an entire season he was an elite top five WR and a player we were all excited about going into the 2021 season. There was no hesitation in taking him in the back end of the second round, and if he returns anywhere close to form then getting him nearly two full rounds after that will make him one of the best draft picks in fantasy. Beyond the positive buzz out of camp there are other reasons for optimism. Many will see the fact that he hasn’t played in two years as a knock against him, but as long as he has stayed in football shape (and it sounds like he has) he has two years less wear and tear on him. Meaning he won’t be the typical 28-year-old. As long as those aspects to his game that made him such a valuable commodity in the past are still there, he will be a WR2 with elite WR1 upside, and you’re getting him in the fourth. I understand that things could go very wrong for him. The lack of playing time could show once he gets on the field with opposing defenses looking to shut him down. There’s also the real possibility that Kirk, a year removed from WR1 status, retains his lead role in the offense due to the trust and chemistry he and Lawrence have developed. But the simple fact is, he is not as good as Ridley. He’s not a true alpha and, last year not withstanding, has never been asked to be. Ridley is still young enough and I believe talented enough to warrant giving him the benefit of the doubt, and buying into his lead role in this offense.
Dynasty Value
I know in dynasty the general consensus is to go young. At 28, people may think that Ridley is a little too risky to buy, but I don’t. Right now there is enough doubt where he is concerned among fantasy circles that you could very easily get him at a discount. If someone is willing to deal him for Joe Mixon and a late 2023 2nd pick, I’d do that in a heartbeat. My favorite trade I’ve seen for him is Alexander Mattison and a mid 2023 2nd round pick. I’m not a believer in the long term value of Mattison as a lead back and I believe very highly that Ridley will be producing at a high level for several years. He did what he did in 2020 with a Matt Ryan who was closer to the end of his career than the beginning of it, and a team that lacked the overall talent the Jaguars possess. So if I can get a WR with elite talent entering his prime and who has the ceiling of a top five finish for an aging running back and a rookie pick or an unproven running back and a rookie pick, I would take that every time.
Bold Prediction
While I’m not sure in his first season back after a two year hiatus he will hit his previous high (although it’s definitely possible), I do think he will easily out perform his ADP as the WR18. I’m predicting 95 receptions, 1200 receiving yards, 10 TDs, and a top 7 finish.
