The Seattle Seahawks selected D.K. Metcalf No. 64 overall in the 2019 NFL Draft. He broke the internet leading up to the draft with pictures of his physique and annihilated nearly all of the drills at the NFL Combine. This article will identify some of the pros, cons, and fantasy impact Metcalf will have this upcoming season.
D.K. Metcalf is pushing the limits of what the human body is capable of
Unofficial 4.33 40 at 6-3, 228 pounds
40.5 inch vertical jump
11-2 broad jump
225 for 27 on the bench press pic.twitter.com/LJbetG8yRC— Brody Logan (@BrodyLogan) March 2, 2019
Metcalf’s NFL Combine percentiles were 94th or higher in the 40-yard dash, bench press, vertical jump, and broad jump. He did not perform as well on the agility drills such as the shuttle and 3-cone. Metcalf’s combine performance was similar to Julio Jones, Donte Moncrief, Mark Harrison, Stephen Hill, Chris Conley, Sammie Coates, and Kevin White. An impressive combine performance does not always translate to success at the next level.
Metcalf had the highest grade prospect grade amongst all wide receivers according to NFL.com and graded 11th overall. Lance Zierlein, a Draft Analyst for NFL.com, had this to say about the former Mississippi wide receiver:
Big, explosive talent with projectable upside to become a home-run threat as a WR1. Teams seek out pass-catchers with rare height, weight and speed dimensions and Metcalf has those for days. While he has the talent to become a full-field threat, Metcalf is still an unpolished gem who was the second-best receiver on his college team. Until his skill-set is more developed, he could begin his career as a hit-or-miss long-ball threat. However, once it clicks, defenses could struggle to find solutions for him.
The “unpolished gem” is a fitting phrase to describe Metcalf considering his collegiate number of games played and injury history. The four-star recruit broke his foot in the second game of the 2016 season, but on a positive note, his two receptions that season were both touchdowns. Metcalf followed that season up by starting all 12 games and accumulating 39 receptions, 646 receptions, and seven touchdowns. His final season ended after seven games due to a neck injury.
D.K. Metcalf
– 70.9 grade last year
– 569 yards and 5 TDs in 2018
– Career: 1228 yards and 14 TDsAndy Isabella
– 93.2 grade last year
– 1696 yards and 13 TDs in 2018
– Career: 3520 yards and 30 TDs— PFF ARZ Cardinals (@PFF_Cardinals) April 27, 2019
Metcalf had a high Pro Football Focus receiving grade (90.9) on Go, Back Shoulder, and End Zone Fade Routes. He had a receiving grade of 60.8 on all other routes and struggled with drops at Mississippi. Metcalf’s role in the Seahawks offense as a rookie would be to attack defenses vertically on play action passes. The team will continue to establish the run, but it would be a mistake for Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer not to use All-Pro quarterback Russell Wilson more this season. He’s averaged 246.2 passing yards, two touchdowns, 0.58 interceptions, and 22 fantasy points per game since 2015. The number of routes Metcalf can run may be limited during his rookie season, but he can still contribute. The retirement of Doug Baldwin opens up additional snaps and over 200 targets for the Seattle wide receivers. Metcalf’s prowess on back shoulder and end zone fade routes could be leveraged in the red zone. Baldwin has led the team in red zone targets in two out of the last four seasons.
David Moore is already on the Seahawks roster and could threaten Metcalf’s fantasy relevancy in 2019. The seventh-round pick in the 2017 NFL Draft could win the No. 2 receiver role. Moore finished third in targets (53) last season with 26 receptions, 445 receiving yards, and five touchdowns. Did you know the 24-year old receiver had seven games in 2018 with four or more targets? Moore scored 18 or more PPR fantasy points in three of them.
Conclusion
Metcalf is shaping up to be a boom or bust WR4 in a Seahawks offense that is unlikely to have the pass attempts per game to support two top-20 PPR wide receivers. The 2019 projections below from FantasyData support that thesis.
| Player Name | Targets | Receptions | Catch Rate | Receiving Yards | Touchdowns | PPR |
| Tyler Lockett | 82.2 | 60 | 73.2 | 923 | 7 | 197.8 |
| D.K. Metcalf | 57.33 | 39 | 68.4 | 571 | 6 | 131.1 |
| David Moore | 49.28 | 32 | 65.3 | 476 | 4 | 103.8 |
Tyler Lockett is in an excellent position to exceed his projection. Metcalf and Moore’s projections are in line with my expectations. They will be fighting over a limited target share. Do you agree or disagree? What did you find most useful?
- Data Sources for this article provided by FantasyData, and Pro Football Focus.
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