DraftKings Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 11

DraftKings Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 11

The NFL Week 11 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to the last few DFS slates. With ten weeks’ worth of data, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.

We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out at least one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for a safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games. 

Week 10 Results

Below are my cash game results in Week 9 for double-ups, 50/50s, and head-to-heads:

Results:

  • Massive $25 Double Up (Single Entry) – 3275/6896
  • Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 3571/7838
  • Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 2300/4597
  • Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 5206/13021
  • Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 3774/8691
  • Single Entry $5 Double Up – 1214/2298
  • Single Entry $2 Double Up – 1381/2873

Another split ticket day on Sunday where I was right on the cash line, so I doubled up on some of my contests and missed others. I was very happy with this team heading into lock; perhaps too happy because I left for a family birthday party and therefore could not react to the Ezekiel Elliott news fast enough. Lesson learned there. As a result, Travis Etienne and the Vikings defense stayed in my lineup instead of pivoting to Tony Pollard and the Cardinals’ defense. That swing cost me a sure win in all contests and required me to live on a razor’s edge that afternoon, forcing me to endure the following:

  1. Donovan Peoples-Jones gets one more receiving yard (for the 100-yard bonus), I cash everywhere
  2. Dameon Pierce gets six more rushing yards (for the 100-yard bonus), I cash everywhere
  3. Tony Pollard does not get the last rush in regulation (giving him the 100-yard bonus), I cash everywhere
  4. Juju Smith-Schuster does not get a concussion early in the game, I cash everywhere

Some weeks (like in Week 9), you’re the windshield. Other weeks, you’re the bug.  

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Week 11 Cash Plays

Quarterback

Justin Fields ($7,600) has worked for us three weeks in a row, and is still $600 to $900 less than the most expensive quarterbacks, so why stop now? Fields, as I’m sure you know, is on a historic stretch of fantasy production right now. Since the year 2000, there are seven total instances where a quarterback rushed for more than 140 yards. Justin Fields has two of those times just in the last two weeks. The schedule gets much harder after this matchup against a weak Atlanta defense (ninth-most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks), but we don’t care about that as DFS players! We are just looking at the one day in front of us. 

Daniel Jones ($5,700) provides quite a bit of salary relief against another atrocious defense (Detroit) this week. Jones has been up and down over the last month but managed to score 18 DraftKings points in a game he only threw 17 times in Week 10. He also can add value with his legs, and that should help this week against Detroit. The Lions not only allow the most DK points to quarterbacks this year, they also allow the second-most rushing yards to the position. The only caveat here with Jones is you don’t really want to play him with Saquon Barkley in cash games, and Barkley has the highest projection and upside of any running back on this slate. 

Running Back

Saquon Barkley ($8,900) is finally priced up where he belongs after another massive game, this time against the Houston Texans. He rushed 35 times in that game, which is the first time someone not named Derrick Henry has done that since 2017. Now he gets a date with the Detroit Lions who are bottom six in both rushing yards and touchdowns allowed. There is also a possibility that Barkley could be even more involved in this game considering he saw only one target in Week 10. I have found it difficult to get to a roster I like with Barkley in it, but he is without a doubt the best raw points play on the entire slate. 

Joe Mixon ($7,400) gets to follow up his 58-point masterpiece in Week 9 with a game against the Steelers who he torched for 21.5 points in the first week of the season. The Steelers are a good play this week (more on that below), but Mixon has so much usage this week, even the bump up $900 to $7,400 may not be enough. Mixon has just one game all season with less than 17 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets) and he ranks second in the NFL in red zone rush attempts. 

Brian Robinson ($5,300) has been seeing massive usage in the running game for the Washington Commanders, and that is exactly what we want in a matchup with the Houston Texans. Barkley torched Houston on the ground last week, and they allow three more DK points per game to the position than any other team this year. The 1,406 yards Houston has allowed on the ground is almost 200 more than the next closest team, so what we are hoping for at this salary is just 20 carries. The only downside is Robinson will almost assuredly not be involved in the passing game. He has four total targets in his last five games, but the discounted price tag reflects that and this slate is desperate for some value plays. 

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb ($7,500) had the best game of his fantasy career on Sunday in a losing effort against the Green Bay Packers. His 150 yards and two scores were accompanied by a massive 35% target share and 151 air yards. More than 52% of the air yards from Dak Prescott went Lamb’s way on Sunday, and that is a trend that has been picking up steam for some time. For how good their defense has been this year, the Vikings really struggle against opposing wide receivers. Minnesota allows the third-most DK points per game to the position, already giving up 1,794 yards and eight touchdowns this year. This should be the most competitive game of the slate, pitting Justin Jefferson and Lamb in a wide receiver battle for the ages. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,200) got back to the normal usage we grew accustomed to at the end of 2021 and the first couple weeks of 2022. Now fully healthy, we should expect a lot more games with 10+ targets and 100+ receiving yards. With no T.J. Hockenson, Josh Reynolds, D.J. Chark, and D’Andre Swift still hurt, St. Brown is the receiving option in Detroit. He had 40% of his team’s air yards in Week 10, one week after seeing more than 80% come his way. 

Darnell Mooney ($5,400) is one of those players we might NEED rather than one we might WANT to play this week because of the salary savings. Mooney has scored one touchdown all year, but he continues to have a roughly 25% target share and between four and seven targets per game. Eventually, Justin Fields is not going to be able to run 16 times a game, so he will need to rely on his pass-catchers. We saw that with Cole Kmet last week, and with New York allowing 11.2 yards per completion (26th in the NFL), we can look for Mooney to catch a long pass or two in this game. 

Parris Campbell ($4,300) is just a completely different receiver when Matt Ryan is under center this year. Of course, Matt Ryan actually throws the ball, so all the Colts’ pass-catchers are better with him. But Campbell has seen 32 targets in the last three games Ryan started, and he went off for seven catches for 76 yards and a score against the Raiders in Week 10. The Eagles will be a tough test for the young receiver this week, but with Matt Ryan showing him quite a bit of favoritism when they two play together, their talent and usage might win out in Week 11. 

Tight End

Cole Kmet ($4,100) was the slate-breaking, millionaire-winning tight end last week with 74 yards and two touchdowns in easily his best game of his career. Justin Fields has been the massive tide that raises all offensive ships for the Bears, and he should be able to do it again against Atlanta. The Falcons allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position even though they have allowed only one touchdown to tight ends. They may start seeing that touchdown regression hit them with Kmet on the field this week. 

Greg Dulcich ($3,800) had a sneaky good game in usage last week, even though his DK score may only show 2.1 points in the box score. He saw four targets, played on 89% of the snaps, and was out there running routes instead of blocking. This play looks much better if Jerry Jeudy misses the game with his injury, so monitor that news as we go through the weekend. The Raiders have allowed six touchdowns, the second-most in the league, so even just a couple red-zone targets could make this salary worth it. 

Defense/Special Teams

Los Angeles Rams DST ($2,900) is the much healthier side of the ball for the Rams and should be able to cause a lot of havoc against an uneven Saints offense led by Andy Dalton who has thrown six interceptions and taken six sacks in his last four starts. The Rams only allow 1.2 passing touchdowns per game, which has now moved them to the top-12 in the NFL. They certainly look worthy of playing at this salary.

Pittsburgh DST ($2,300) absolutely wrecked Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 1 with four interceptions and seven sacks. And while we can’t expect another 27 fantasy points from the Steel Curtain, Cincinnati ranks 26th in sack percentage allowed while passing at the eighth-highest rate in the league. With T.J. Watt back in action, this is a defense that should be locked into cash games, considering the poor state of the Bengals’ offensive line. 

Cash Game Sample Lineup

Using some of the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, keep in mind, that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday.  You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build. I do like this lineup a lot if Ezekiel Elliott does not play or we get word that he will be limited against the Vikings. Pollard screwed me over last week by not being in my lineup, so I might as well use him to earn it all back in Week 11!

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Mike Patch
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