DraftKings Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 9
The NFL Week 9 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to the last few DFS slates. With eight weeks’ worth of data, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out at least one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for a safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
Week 8 Results
This was my cash game lineup in Week 7 for double-ups, 50/50s, and head-to-heads:
Results:
- Massive $25 Double Up (Single Entry) – 3435/6896
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 4145/8620
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 1240/2298
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 2344/4597
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 6840/17241
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 4814/11494
- Single Entry $2 Double Up – 3414/8602
Week 8 for me was my first split week of the year, cashing in most of the lower-dollar games while striking out in the higher-dollar games where most of the sharper cash game players are. It all came down to the quarterback decision for me in Week 8. I was never really comfortable with the literal two-point floor that was a $4,000 Sam Ehlinger. That led me to Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, which was completely defensible but forced me to get off of some pieces that kept me from cashing everywhere. Instead of Alvin Kamara and D.J. Moore in my cash lineup (who were both top plays of mine), I went down to Raheem Mostert and Garrett Wilson. Garrett Wilson was a good play, even accounting for how great Moore was. But the point differential between Kamara’s slate-breaking game and Mostert’s dud is where I lost the points I needed to cash across the board. The lesson for next time? Play any $4,000 starting quarterback who has a pulse.
Week 9 Cash Plays
Quarterback
Josh Allen ($8,500) is back on the main slate and more expensive than he has been at any point this year. But we still may not be at the points where he is a bad play considering his 40-point upside in any given game and five games over 30 DraftKings points already this season. The New York Jets have been stingy against opposing quarterbacks this year with their establish-the-run, control-the-clock style of play. But the Bills still have the highest implied total on the slate at 29.75 points and have scored over 23 points in six of their seven games this year.
Justin Fields ($5,300) may be more than $3,000 cheaper than Allen, but he has played just like him the past two weeks, averaging 25 DK points against very tough defenses in Dallas and New England. He is improving as a passer (4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in the last four weeks), and is always a threat to score with his legs. In the past two weeks, Fields has 142 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. This week’s opponent, the Miami Dolphins, has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler ($8,800) averages far and away the most fantasy points among all running backs on this slate. His 25.4 DK points per game are four more than Josh Jacobs, who is closest to him. But to get that kind of production, you are definitely going to be paying for it. His $8,800 is $1,300 higher than just three weeks ago, but three out of four games with at least 35 DraftKings points will put you in that tier. The most valuable DFS commodity you can roster is the running back who gets you top-five rushing totals, and also top-five receiving totals; the chance for the double 100-yard bonus. Ekeler has been that lately, especially in the receiving games. He has 28 targets, 22 receptions, and 143 receiving yards in the last two weeks plus a receiving touchdown. On a PPR site like DraftKings, that is absolute gold and Ekeler should be worth every penny this week against the lousy defense of the Falcons.
Travis Etienne ($6,300) had a Week 7 coming-out party with 119 total yards, a touchdown, and 22.9 DraftKings points. But if that was the coming-out party, Week 8 was the raging afterparty that everyone wants to get into. He went off for 156 rushing yards in London against Denver. But the cover price to get into the party has now jumped up from $5,800 to $6,300. Spoiler alert: It’s still not high enough against the Las Vegas Raiders this week. The Raiders allow the ninth-most points to running backs this year, but perhaps the best thing in Etienne’s favor is that the Jaguars have moved into the top-12 teams in rushing play percentage this season.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,200) drops about $200 in salary after his fourth straight game with more than 20 DK points. Well, OK. And against a team that is bottom-10 in DraftKings points allowed to the position? In his last three games, Stevenson is averaging more than 15 carries and more than six targets per game. He got a major salary bump after Week 5, but DraftKings seems unwilling to bring him up out of the low $6,000s despite all the production. We won’t complain, but rather know we have two elite options in this exact salary midrange to help us save money elsewhere.
Deon Jackson ($5,200) should get the start in place of an injured Jonathan Taylor this week against the New England Patriots. It’s a tough first start for the 23-yeard old second-year back as the Patriots allow the second-fewest DK points to running backs. But with Taylor out and Nyhiem Hines traded, Jackson should get the majority of the work for a salary that won’t be hard to pay off. Called into major duty on October 16th against Jacksonville, Jackson rushed 12 times for 42 yards and caught all 10 of his targets for 79 yards. He also had two touchdowns in that game, and while we don’t need to be that greedy, the combination of majority rush attempts and a handful of targets makes Jackson a very enticing play this week.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill ($8,500) is putting up box scores eerily similar to Cooper Kupp in 2021, and Kupp was frequently priced close to $10,000 when he was on his hottest streak last season. Only Kupp and Stefon Diggs are averaging more DK points per game than Hill’s (24.0), but Hill only has two touchdowns while Kupp has six and Diggs has seven. If some positive touchdowns regression comes Hill’s way, He could be putting up 25+ DK points with regularity. Presently, he is on pace to break the single-season records for receptions and receiving yards.
Tee Higgins ($7,300) didn’t give us what we wanted in the Monday Night Football game this week, his first without Ja’Marr Chase this year, but we have to have a short memory there and go right back considering the game environment and potential usage. Higgins only saw six targets on Monday for an 18% target share, but Chase leaves behind a 27% target share and plenty of those should start heading Higgins’ way. The Panthers have allowed opponents to complete 117 passes against them this year, second-most in the NFL.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,600) keeps seeing his salary drop thanks to a combination of injury and mediocre performances the past four weeks. But don’t forget, St. Brown averaged 25 DK points per game in his first three contests this year before the injury. The huge fantasy game didn’t follow, but he did have 10 targets and seven receptions in Week 8 and now T.J. Hockenson’s 18% target share has been traded to Minnesota. Most are seeing this as a potential “get right” game for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, which means if it turns into a shootout, St. Brown should be peppered with targets.
Joshua Palmer ($5,100) and Deandre Carter ($4,300) are simply way too cheap with Mike Williams out and with Keenan Allen HIGHLY questionable for this game. Allen had very disturbing news come out of Chargers’ camp that somehow his injured hamstring got worse during the bye week. Both of these players are worth firing up at their respective salaries if Allen is out, but Palmer is the preferred target here in cash games. In a very similar situation in Week 6, Palmer drew 12 targets, catching nine of them for 57 yards. That kind of usage is gold at this salary and on this slate that is presently devoid of many true value plays. Carter has 12 targets in the last two games, and would also be in line for a bigger role if Allen sits this one out. Atlanta is going to put up points in this game, so some exposure to Ekeler and the pass-catcher almost seems like a necessity in this 49.5-point total matchup.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts ($4,500) and all his truthers rejoiced in Week 8 when he had his best game of the season against Carolina. Pitts was targeted nine times, and although he only caught five, those went for 80 yards and a score. His salary jumps up $500 as a result, but he gets the Los Angeles Chargers this week who are bottom-10 in receiving yards and yards per reception allowed to tight ends. I likely won’t be going up this high for my tight end in cash games, but it’s worth noting he now has three of his past five games over 10 DK points.
Evan Engram ($3,300) continues to be a very valuable tight end piece not just for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but for fantasy and DFS managers as well. After catching four passes for 55 yards and a score in London, Engram now has at least nine DK points in four straight games and actually saw his salary drop after Week 8. While the catches and touchdowns are nice the best stat for Engram is that he has at least six targets in four straight games. If Darren Waller is out again, Foster Moreau ($3,200) for $100 cheaper is likely just as good a play in this price range.
Noah Fant ($2,900) gave us next to nothing last week at $2,800 (3.9 DK points), but he is the cheapest tight end option who is actually seeing consistent targets. For under $3,000, we really just need seven to nine points from Fant, and that is certainly possible in this Seahawks-Cardinals game that is tied for the highest total on the slate (49.5 points). These are the two worst teams against tight ends this year, and the Cardinals allow 20.1 DK points to the position each week, including a league-leading seven touchdowns to tight ends.
Defense/Special Teams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers DST ($3,000) has had a tremendous fall from grace this season, but they do get pressure and sacks on the quarterback this year (14 sacks in their last five games). The Los Angeles Rams have not been able to protect Matthew Stafford well this season, giving up 3.4 sacks per game (30th in the NFL). There is no reason to pay up at defense this week when you can pay $3,000 or below for this kind of matchup.
Carolina Panthers DST ($2,300) represents a pure punt on defense against a Bengals team that has allowed 3.8 sacks per game (31st in the league). Cincinnati’s offensive line is still in shambles and just allowed Joe Burrow to be sacked five times on Monday against Cleveland. Caroline hasn’t scored less than five points on defense since Week 2.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using some of the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, keep in mind, that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build. If I can find $200 in this lineup, I would be able to fit D.J. Moore instead of a struggling Christian Kirk. I am not sure I want to sacrifice my key pieces, so I will be tinkering with this one throughout the weekend.
