DraftKings Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 3
The NFL Week 3 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to Weeks 1 and 2. With only two weeks worth of data, it’s not hard to overreact to what we saw on the field. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity. Let’s go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out at least one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
Week 2 Results
My cash game lineup last week for double-ups, 50/50s, and head-to-heads for Week 2 recap:
Results:
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 5547/8620
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 11457/17241
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 6007/9195
- Massive $25 Double Up (Single Entry) – 4437/6896
- NFL $1 100-Team 50/50 – 66/100
- NFL $2 100-Team 50/50 – 61/100
- NFL $5 100-Team 50/50 – 63/100
- NFL $3 100-Team 50/50 – 59/100
- NFL $2 300-Team 50/50 – 188/300
- NFL $1 400-Team 50/50 – 249/400
- NFL $10 200-Team 50/50 – 115/200
- NFL $2 200-Team 50/50 – 117/200
- NFL $5 200-Team 50/50 – 127/200
- NFL $3 500-Team 50/50 – 305/500
After this piece was published last week, the Michael Pittman news broke that he would be out for Week 2. This opened up the opportunity to do one of two things. First, you could spend down at tight end for a Kylen Granson, Albert O, or Juwan Johnson and then spend up at a second receiver. Alternatively, you could spend up for the clear best option at tight end, leaving two punt options necessary for a wide receiver. In the end, I put WAY more faith in the Colts than I should have and even Mark Andrews’ big day could not make up for an Amon-Ra St. Brown or Christian Kirk that would have otherwise been in my lineup. Juwan Johnson + ARSB was good for 50 points, whereas my Andrews-Campbell combo went for 28.7. That was the difference between cashing and not and it caused me to give back all the gains I made in Week 1.
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts ($7600) is still too low at $7,600 after scoring 25 DK points in Week 1 and 37 against Minnesota in Week 2. And those point totals are with him throwing a grand total of 1 touchdown so far this season. The rushing floor (28 rushes in two games) is so high, that even if Hurts is a mediocre quarterback every week, he is going to have a rushing floor of at least eight points on which to build. Now Hurts gets Washington who allows the fifth-most rushing yards per game (157 yards) to opponents in this early part of the season.
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Kirk Cousins ($6700) will be an interesting case study in roster confidence on Sunday after he completely bombed on a national stage last Sunday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. He managed to scrape out 11.8 DK points because he rushed for 20 yards and threw 46 passes. But at home against the Detroit Lions should be a much different story. Only one team has allowed more than the 65 points the Lions have given up this year and they are bottom six in opponents’ yards per pass completion and opponents’ passing yards per game. This is going to be another Justin Jefferson explosion spot in a home divisional game.
Marcus Mariota ($5500) looks to be the best quarterback value on this slate, although Derek Carr at just $5,900 also looks appealing. But Mariota has the better matchup and a decent rushing floor that should allow him to fly past expected value compared to his $5,500 salary. He suits up against the Seattle Seahawks this week, the same team that allows the fourth-most yards per pass attempt and eighth-most rushing yards per game. Marcus Mariota also leads all quarterbacks in red zone rush attempts this season.
Running Back
Joe Mixon ($7600) might be the highest I am willing to go at running back this week even though we have Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and Austin Ekeler all with home matchups this week. Each of those faces tough opponents while Mixon gets the New York Jets who are already allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Don’t forget what Nick Chubb just did to them last week, running right through them for three rushing scores. Mixon provides the right mix of rush opportunities (46, most in the league) and targets (13) to break a slate at his relatively low salary.
Leonard Fournette ($6500) certainly got the touches against the New Orleans Saints in Week 2, totaling 24 rush attempts and four targets in the 20-10 slugfest. He only produced 9.4 DK points in that contest, but we care much more about the usage than we do the outcomes. If he continues to get more than 25 opportunities per game, one of these weeks he is going to crush his salary in the mid-$6,000s. With so many wide receiver weapons likely out for Tampa Bay this week and Tom Brady looking like the crypt-keeper, this could be another heavy dose of Lenny touches again.
David Montgomery ($5900) may be off to an uneven start to the season, but he is certainly part of an offensive unit that is signaling they plan to run, run, and then run some more. Only Chicago has rushed on more than 59% of their plays this season, and they are all the way up to 66% as Week 3 approaches. Even when they were down multiple scores to Green Bay on Sunday Night Football, they were still pounding the ball on the ground and refusing to let Justin Fields throw. That should work in our favor this week against the Texans who have a #notgood rush defense through two weeks. They allow the third-most rushing yards at 163 per game and are also allowing 4.7 rushing yards per attempt to opponents.
Josh Jacobs ($5400) got borderline elite usage in the unlikely loss to the Arizona Cardinals last week. He saw 19 rush attempts and a target en route to 81 total yards in that game. We, unfortunately, don’t have too much pure and obvious running back value on the slate as of Friday morning, so Jacobs may have to fill that role at $5,400. We do know that Jacobs’ opponent, the Tennessee Titans, let Saquon Barkley go berserk against them in Week 1, and Tennessee is allowing 6.1 yards per carry to opposing backs.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs ($7700) is a gift from the DFS gods this week and we should just take our reward and run with it. After logging 148 yards and three touchdowns in Week 2, Diggs’ salary went up by $200? He is top six in air yards, receptions, targets, touchdowns, and target share at the position. And he is likely going to be 80% rostered in cash games this week. Just follow the leader on this one and make sure you’re not missing out on one of the league’s best pass-catchers at $7,700.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7200) has seen his salary increase by $1,100 since Week 1, but it’s still too low for the role he is playing in the Detroit offense and for the matchup against the fast-paced Vikings. This game has one of the highest implied totals of the day and will be a GPP-stacking dream. But for our purposes, we are looking for the most reliable floor at a reasonable cost. DraftKings is still too low on the type of player ARSB has become.
Jakobi Meyers ($5000) is part of an offense that ranks 20th in pass attempts per game (32.5) and 17th in passing yards per game (222.5), but he is such a heavily-involved player within that limited passing attack, he is worth the $5,000 investment this week. Meyers is top-12 in the NFL in target share this season but has not found the end one yet, which is keeping his DK salary low. We saw the Miami Dolphins tear up Baltimore’s depleted secondary last week, and Mac Jones might be able to replicate some of that magic. Make sure Meyers is healthy on Saturday before locking him into your lineups.
Russell Gage ($4700) represents one of our few potential options at value for the wide receiver position. Those receivers who started in the low $3,000s to begin the year have been priced up, so we shouldn’t expect the sure-fire $3,000 is there this week. We know Mike Evans is suspended for this game against the Packers. If both of Chris Godwin and Julio Jones also sit due to injury, Gage becomes the WR1 by default. If that happens, he will almost assuredly find his way into my lineup. If Jones and Godwin play, I will likely want no part of Gage.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts ($4800) is about the highest salary I am looking at for the tight end position even though we have the top three options back on the board for this slate. In my early builds, I am not finding room for a Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews because of what I would have to give up elsewhere. I know you’re probably tired of seeing fantasy analysts recommend Kyle Pitts everywhere the past two weeks, especially because he has earned you a total of four catches for 38 yards. But he got the vote of confidence this week from the head coach, and I bet they are finding ways to get him involved in Week 3. Take the $600 discount and run with it.
Gerald Everett ($4400) was one of the major beneficiaries of Keenan Allen missing the Los Angeles Chargers’ last game. He earned 10 targets which he turned into six catches for 71 yards. Now he gets a matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars with Allen still uncertain to play and just a $300 salary bump to $4,400. Everett has a strong 25.5% of targets per route run and would be a favorite option for the Charger should Allen miss again. The Justin Herbert news also affects Evertt’s viability, so that is something to watch closely.
Irv Smith, Jr. ($3100) was a player many thought would break out in Week 1 after he was finally declared healthy and positioned as the TE1 for the suddenly pass-happy Vikings. He proceeded to not receive a single target that game, instead waiting until Week 2 to break out. Against the Eagles, Smith drew eight targets for 36 yards and a score. For just $3,100 all we really need is four catches for 50 yards if we want Smith to pay off his salary. But his red zone presence and Minnesota’s 68% pass rate mean a touchdown is always a possibility.
Defense/Special Teams
Philadelphia DST ($2900) looks to be way too cheap even going against a Washington team that has scored the third-most points in the NFC through two weeks. The Eagles just completely shut down Kirk Cousins and the Vikings last week, and with Washington dropping back to pass at the eighth-highest rate in the league so far, there will be ample chances for sacks and interceptions.
Las Vegas DST ($2500) lines up against a Tennessee Titans team that has scored just 27 points against the New York Giants and Buffalo Bills so far this season. Treylon Burks, Robert Woods, and Austin Hooper look like a real work in progress as a receiving corps, and Ryan Tannehill is turning back into a pumpkin before our very eyes. Add in injuries to offensive linemen Jamarco Jones and Taylor Lewan, and this looks like my preferred cheap defense for Week 3.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using some of the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, keep in mind, that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build. In this build. This build assumes that Keenan Allen will not play, subbing in Josh Palmer at $4,800. If Allen does play, I would likely look elsewhere for that slot.