NBA DFS Picks
Thursday’s slate of games features a matchup between the Mavericks and Suns, with Pheonix as the slight home favorites. The early tip-offs include some Eastern Conference matchups between the Knicks and Celtics and Pistons vs Nets. One of the higher-scoring games is projected to take place in Houston between the Cavaliers and Rockets.
Tuesday Article Recap
- Julius Randle Projection: 45 | Result: 61.3
- Donovan Mitchell Projection: 42 | Result: 59
- Paul George Projection: 42 | Result: 45.8
- Jimmy Butler Projection: 42 | Result: A Late Scratch Tuesday
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: 22 | Result: 21
- Reggie Jackson Projection: 22 | Result: 31.25
- Ayo Dosunmu Projection: 19 | Result: 17.5
- Nicolas Batum Projection: 16 | Result: 22
Overall I’m happy with the results. My recommendations exceeded the projections of 5 players and even the players I missed weren’t too bad. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was a killer for me, I had him in an Underdog Fantasy Pick’em player prop bet, but just missed his total (what is Underdog Fantasy? – Click Here). You can read Tuesday’s NBA DraftKings article here.
Overall Grade: B+
Studs DFS Player
Luka Doncic | Dallas Mavericks
FantasyData Projection: 59 | DraftKings Cost: $12700
This season, Luka Doncic is averaging 33.8 points per game and 37.5 minutes per contest, both of which rank first among today’s players. Given that Doncic thrives at getting to the line, he will benefit from facing a Suns unit ranked 24th in free-throw attempts allowed per game. Even with the high price tag, Doncic is always a candidate to outperform expectations. This season, he has surpassed our projections in 56.8% of his games.
Kyrie Irving | Brooklyn Nets
FantasyData Projection: 45 | DraftKings Cost: $10300
Kyrie Irving’s price has been going up of late, but he’s also going to a larger role in the Nets offense with Kevin Durant out of the lineup. Coming into the game, he’s third among today’s players in minutes played and is averaging 26.8 points per game on a usage rate of 29.7%. For the season, Irving has outperformed his fantasy scoring projection in 52.8% of games, including four out of his last five games.
Paul George | Los Angeles Clippers
FantasyData Projection: 42 | DraftKings Cost: $8500
This year, George has taken 20.5% of Los Angeles’ field goal attempts and is matched up against the NBA’s 27th-ranked defensive unit. In his 34 games, he is averaging 2.9 made threes per contest on a shooting percentage of 38.4%. The Spurs have also struggled to defend the three-point line this season, ranking 21st in three-pointers allowed per game.
Jaylen Brown | Boston Celtics
FantasyData Projection: 40 | DraftKings Cost: $9400
Even though Jaylen Brown is hitting just 33.6% of his three’s this year, The Knicks have really struggled to defend the three-point line, ranking 24th in the league in three-pointers allowed per game. At 26.9 points per contest, he is ranked 4th compared to today’s other options and 5th in fantasy points per game (43.8). I also like that Brown is one of the more efficient offensive options, with a PER of 24.4.
Value DFS Player
Alec Burks | Detroit Pistons
FantasyData Projection: 21 | DraftKings Cost: $4400
Burks not only comes into the game at a good price, but he’s also been seeing an increase in usage of late. The Detroit Pistons come into the game as the 12th-ranked team in possessions per game, and he should be able to take advantage of facing the 21st-ranked defense at defending his position. I am also expecting Burks to put together a strong three-point shooting performance, where he is shooting 43.6%.
Quentin Grimes | New York Knicks
FantasyData Projection: 16 | DraftKings Cost: $4300
Quentin Grimes is trending in the right direction as he’s been outperforming his season average of 18.2 fantasy over his last three games. A reliable three-point shooter, he has a season three-point shooting percentage of 36.6%. Not only do I see him sitting at a good price, but I’m also expecting him to continue playing a larger role in the Knicks’ offense.
Eric Gordon | Houston Rockets
FantasyData Projection: 18 | DraftKings Cost: $4500
With Kevin Porter Jr.’s absence from the lineup, Eric Gordon is likely to get some extra looks on offense. For the season, he has a usage rate of 17.6% and has seen that number increase over his last three contests. In his last five games, he has exceeded our fantasy projection 3 times.
Torrey Craig | Phoenix Suns
FantasyData Projection: 20 | DraftKings Cost: $4400
Torrey Craig is coming into today’s game as the 57th-best option in projected fantasy scoring, but with Devin Booker out of the lineup and his salary at just $4400, he has a ton of upside. For the season, Craig has hit just 39.2% of his shots but faces a Mavericks defense that is just 24th in field goal percentage allowed.
Super Value Pick
Zach Collins | San Antonio Spurs
FantasyData Projection: 23.9 | DraftKings Cost: $3700
Collins put up 16 points on 6-for-10 shooting in 25 minutes of action, making the most of them. He made all four of his free throw tries, grabbed seven rebounds, and had two assists, and two steals. However, the big man’s two attempts from beyond the arc were unsuccessful. Thursday night against the Clippers, Collins will aim for another fantasy-worthy streaming performance. He’s cheap, and at $3,700 I like him as a sleeper pick.
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