DraftKings NFL Picks Week 5
Week 4 was a wild ride, and I hope you all did well. A lot of disappointing chalk, then there was that WTF Bucs against Rams game. Let’s have a look at what week 5 has in store for us.
Review: “Chalk, Pivots, and Punts” is an NFL DFS series focused around main slate GPPs. We go game by game looking at potential chalk plays to pivot away from, and perhaps discover some diamond in the rough type punt plays to add a differentiation piece to our builds. Each game will have a brief write up and will include the team’s projected point total and Vegas Implied point spread as of the time of writing. Here is a link to a Google Sheet that presents data I collect throughout the season breaking down points allowed to specific positions, and displays home/road splits, as well as the combined data. Below are links to the final data from last year I posted to Twitter.
- Link to Tweet: Chart showing where defenses allowed fantasy points by position last year
- Link to Tweet: Chart showing how defenses allowed TDs by Passing & Rushing last year
When discussing pivot plays, it’s not always as simple as saying “Player A” is chalk so pivot to “Player B”. Pivots can be a pivot from one player to another player at the same position, a pivot from one position to another, or just a way to pivot to the other side of a game that everyone else might be heavy to one side of. Simply put, the pivots will not always be direct pivots, more like other ideas to consider in the macro-view of the slate.
Below is my Chalk, Pivots, and Punts Chart based on my opinion of the slate and what the field will likely be on this week.
Let’s get after it…
Jacksonville Jaguars (18.75/+3.5) at Carolina Panthers (22.25/-3.5) [41]
This projects as a low scoring match-up between two pretty good defenses. Carolina will likely have the Bradberry Blanket following DJ Chark ($5000) around leaving Jackson to cover Chris Conley ($4100) which is an exploitable match-up at a low price tag. Ross Cockrell has been playing great in the slot for Carolina, making Dede Westbrook ($5300) a somewhat risky play. Leonard Fournette ($6400) leads our metric for yards created per rush attempt with 2.61. He’s been having bad TD luck but has seen enough yards and targets to keep him viable each week. This is a tough defense to run on, but at some point, Fournette is going to start punching in some scoring opportunities.
Friday Update: Carolina has ruled out two starting offensive lineman, while Jacksonville has ruled out Jalen Ramsey. The Jags defense carries some appeal against a depleted OL and the Carolina receivers should have more open area to work with.
Christian McCaffrey ($8700) offers phenomenal upside on every slate due to his nearly 100% snap share and high usage rate, and he always sees high ownership because of this. The Jags haven’t let any RBs loose since their week 1 meeting with Kansas City, so CMC is a bet on talent and opportunity play this week. The best way to attack the Jags defense right now is with a team’s #1 WR, per my match-up chart in this link. A good chunk of this data is coming from last week where the Broncos Courtland Sutton dusted Jalen Ramsey’s replacement, and the other WR1 big game came from KC’s #1 WR Sammy Watkins, who primarily lines up in the slot. Curtis Samuel ($4500) and D.J. Moore ($5200) primarily line up outside, but both take turns running routes from the slot during games, too. Carolina struggled to score points against Houston’s soft secondary last week, so it’s hard to get too excited about these guys. Samuel is racking up Air Yards and will start cashing those in at some point, so he’s the better play between the two, more so when you take cost into account.
Saturday update: Looking at passing charts and the percentage of snaps each of Samuel and Moore line up on either side of the field points to Samuel as the better play here. This can be supported by out-targeting Moore to this point as well.
Arizona Cardinals (22.0/+3) at Cincinnati Bengals (25.0/-3) [47]
Both defenses in this game are giving up the booty. Problem is, neither offense has looked great so far this year, and we just saw Pittsburgh shut down the Bengals on Monday Night football. Cincinnati is getting trashed by RBs allowing 90% above league average to the position (worst in the NFL), so David Johnson ($7500) pops out as the first player to look at from the Cards. Kyler Murray ($6300) should be able to take advantage of the Bengals week defense and put up some points. The Bengals linebackers are giving up a ton of yards in coverage, again pointing us back to Johnson, but if they somehow get schemed into a LB covering Larry Fitzgerald ($6000) he’s going to roast them. Christian Kirk has been ruled out for this one, so there will be opportunities for guys like Damiere Byrd ($4000), Trent Sherfield ($3000), KeeSean Johnson ($3500), and Andy Isabella ($3200) to sneak into relevance this week. One of them could make for a great punt option.
We all know who the chalk TE for the week is going to be right? The Cardinals are getting annihilated by TEs this year allowing the opponent’s TE1 to score over 200% more than league average. Tyler Eifert ($3300), when healthy, has been one of Andy Dalton’s ($5700) favorite end-zone targets for years. Hard to understand DK’s pricing on him given the match-up, so you can bet he’ll be nearly 50% owned in most tournaments this week. Arizona is soft against QBs, and although Dalton is coming off a bad week, he is a good bet to rebound here and would make for a solid stacking option for your Eifert builds. Tyler Boyd ($6500) went into Monday night averaging over 10 targets per game but only saw 6 against the Steelers. He should be able to bounce back in this one. Auden Tate ($3500) is the next man up after John Ross’s injury landed him on IR. Tate is a big guy that Dalton can try and throw jump balls to and let him position himself for the catch. Joe Mixon ($6100) could be asked to do more with the Bengals down two of their top 3 WRs now. He’ll need to be used better in the passing game and not just as a dump-off option to build his receiving floor. Not sure rostering him behind that OL is a good idea, but he and the OL aren’t facing world-beaters on the other side.
Atlanta Falcons (22.0/+5) at Houston Texans (27.0/-5) [49]
The Falcons are struggling this year, and part of the problem appears to be the OL. The Falcons OL is only generating 1.26 yards before contact for their runners, which is 4th worst in the league. Dirk Koetter abandons the run quickly in each game, too, so Devonta Freeman ($5300) comes in as a pure contrarian play this week. Matt Ryan ($5900) to Julio Jones ($7700) with Jonathan Joseph in coverage appears to be the match-up/stack to exploit the Texans defense with this week. Joseph is allowing 14.2 fantasy points against per game in coverage this year, 11th worst among corners with at least 20 coverage snaps on the year. The Texans have done a really good job shutting down TEs this year, so it might be time to let someone else roster Austin Hooper ($4500) this week. Calvin Ridley ($4900) could be worth a pivot this week if you think the Texans can sell out and slow Julio down.
Deshaun Watson ($6700) should be in a good spot to smash this week. If rostering him, the ideal stacking partner will be DeAndre Hopkins ($7800) who should be able to get plenty of reps across from Isaiah Oliver, who has allowed 13.1 fantasy points per game (18th worst) and the Atlanta defense as a whole has surrendered 20.4 fantasy points per game to opposing #1 WRs (10th worst). Watson is spreading the ball around quite a bit this year, and Nuk is his top playmaker, so it’s hard to pull the trigger on the other 3 WRs who have been sharing a sparser amount of targets to date. Atlanta is not great against RBs, but the Texans are dividing the RB workload between two guys which is going to cap their upside. Stick to Watson and Hopkins here, and possibly the Texans DST ($3300).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21.75/+3) at New Orleans Saints (24.75/-3) [46.5]
Alvin Kamara ($8600) is the life raft of the Saints offense until Brees can come back. Everything they do will revolve around how productive Kamara is, and Payton will scheme for him to be successful. The price tag is steep AF this week for him, but he’s been dominating snaps and opportunity in this offense which is usually pretty efficient. My concerns with paying up for Kamara are his numbers to date. His opportunities (Rushes + Targets) through the first four weeks are 21, 16, 26, and 20. That is not heavy volume. His DK points scored are 23.9, 7.0, 37.1, and 11.9 so it’s not like he’s on some rampage recently that warrants $8600. He is the ultimate pivot in the top 4 at RB because no one is going to pay up for him after looking at his box scores. To take that leap of faith we have to believe that Kamara, in a dome, against a division rival he has had success against at home will see the type of target share and opportunity he has in the past, against a weaker Bucs defense than the current version. It’s something I will weigh until lock, especially considering what the corpse of Todd Gurley just did against the Bucs. As for other Saints options, there’s just two. Michael Thomas ($6600) is going to see 10 or more targets, possibly reach the milestone bonus, and maybe get a TD or two. Tampa has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opponent #1 WRs this year, so he’s in play at his reduced price. Jared Cook ($3400) is the ownership and cost pivot off of Eifert this week. Cook has been awful this year, but he does face the second-worst defense against TEs. Tampa is allowing 21.1 points to the position and 115% above league average to the TE1. The field will see his box scores and not even consider him. He’s on my radar.
Minnesota Vikings (24.25/-5) at New York Giants (19.25/+5) [43.5]
Kirk Cousins ($5300) apologized to Adam Thielen ($6700) for not hitting him on a few plays, then he spent time after practice Wednesday working on deep balls with Thielen and the other receivers (but not Diggs who missed practice for “non-injury reasons”). Adam Levitan already posted the squeaky wheel narrative here. There’s a good chance Thielen has a monster game here since both of the Giant’s top 2 corners are in the top 13 for fantasy points allowed per game. Janoris Jenkins is 4th and DeAndre Baker is 13th. Doesn’t matter who they assign to Thielen, he’s on a mission this week with Kirk to get the deep game fixed. That will all be helped by the presence of Dalvin Cook ($8400) demanding extra attention in the box. Cook should be chalky this week as a road favorite RB who has had explosive games already this year and is third in yards created for RBs.Stefon Diggs ($6200) is on a milk carton someone trying to be found. Perhaps his Wednesday absence is due to a trade. We shall see.
Pat Shurmur has a former employer narrative going into this one, and the Giants have been a bit tougher at home than when on the road. The Giants will receive some help on offense this week with the return/debut of Golden Tate ($4600). Tate is mainly a slot receiver but was asked to play outside some in Philly last year, so it’s unclear where he will line up and whether Sterling Shepard ($5800) keeps the slot job or if they both get reps in there. Whoever does has to face Mackenzie Alexander who has been one of the top slot corners so far this year, so we may want to avoid both guys here. Evan Engram ($5800) is just one target behind Ertz for the league lead, and may seem a couple of his targets heading Tate’s way in the future, given Tate is a more talented player than the other receivers NY had to use while he was out. Wayne Gallman ($5400) rewarded those who ate the chalk last week but faces a much tougher match-up here. Let the field chase last week’s points. We can also let the field chase Daniel Jones’s ($5600) big game in Tampa, although he’s not a bad play if you wanted to roster him.
Chicago Bears (22.75/-5) vs Oakland Raiders (17.75/+5) [40.5]
Both teams are on the road in this international series game. The Bears are having to turn to back-up QB Chase Daniel ($4800) this week. Make no mistake about it, Daniel is not a good QB, but at his price, we have to consider him. If he allows you to build a roster full of superstars at every other position, then go for it. The Raiders have allowed the 8th most points to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed an 80% over league average to opposing team’s #2 WR, which would be Taylor Gabriel ($3900) here. That stack only costs us 17.4% of our budget for DK allowing for $5900 average per player to spend on the other positions. David Montgomery ($5200) has seen an increase in snap share each week of the season and was up to 26 opportunities last week. He makes for an interesting play in a game where the Bears may only have to play defense and run out the clock. The Bears DST ($3800) makes for a great play if you have the salary for it.
Friday update: Taylor Gabriel has been ruled out. Anthony Miller and Javon Wims will be the 2nd and 3rd WRs for the Bears this week. Wims has slightly higher appeal due to more usage and an 8.0 Yards Per Target total. Miller has draft capital behind him but hasn’t done anything yet this year. Both are punt plays only.
Kalil Mack has a former employer narrative he is looking forward to exacting on his old Raiders teammates. That’s not good news for a slow-paced offense devoid of game-breakers. The Raiders are concentrating their offense around Josh Jacobs ($4500), Ty Williams ($5200), and Darren Waller ($5000). Each one of those guys has a 20+ point game on the year, but Jacobs and Williams had theirs week 1 and have been just okay ever since. Waller had a 30 DK point game 2 weeks ago, but Chicago has been pretty solid versus tight ends to this point. Starting Raiders against the Bears defense in another country is as bad of an idea as it sounds. They’re strictly contrarian plays this week.
New York Jets (15.25/+13.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (28.75/-13.5) [44]
We may not know the status of Sam Darnold ($5400) until Friday afternoon at the earliest. If he starts then it’s game on for all Jets skill position players, if not, then I’d probably only keep Le’Veon Bell ($6800) in my player pool. Bell carries a high floor as a receiver in this one, especially if the Jets are playing from behind. Aaron Jones saw 7 targets while the Packers were in comeback mode last week, and Chris Thompson saw 10 targets in week 1. They are a little tougher to run on, but Bell will be a big part of their game plan. If Darnold does play it opens up value at the WR positions, where the Eagles have been exploited by opponents this year. Philly is 3rd in DK points allowed to #1 WRs and is allowing 40% above league average to the position as a whole (worst in the NFL). Robby Anderson ($4500) is cheap enough to warrant consideration in a few line-ups based on the match-up. I have some slight concerns with his chemistry with Darnold and Darnold coming back from being out. In week 1 Darnold missed all 4 pass attempts over 20 yards and only completed 3 of 10 attempts over 10 yards. Anderson was only able to haul in 3 of his 7 targets in that game as Jamison Crowder ($4300) saw 17 targets. Seems like we’ve been waiting for Robby Anderson to break out for going on two years now. This could be the week if he draws a lot of Ronald Darby. Darby has allowed the 5th most PPR points to opposing receivers at 16.0 per game.
Friday Update: Sam Darnold has been ruled out. Downgrade everyone on the offense, with the least impact to Lev Bell. Upgrade Philly defense.
Baltimore Ravens (23.75/-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (20.75/+3) [44.5]
The Raven offense has averaged 25 points over the last 3 weeks, after their 59 point game in Miami to start the season. They run into a tough division rival on the road here. At first look, the Steelers don’t have many glaring weaknesses. Notably, they got beat up by the Patriots and 49ers running backs though, since those are similar run game philosophies to what the Ravens do. Mark Ingram ($6300) may be able to get something going in this one, but he’s priced a bit high for the risk of getting shut down in a committee style backfield that features a running QB. I’d be more inclined to go with just Lamar Jackson ($7100) without a stacking partner, be he too is priced pretty high (QB1 for the slate). There seem to be other options at QB (Watson, Winston, Wentz) that have the same amount of upside and floor as Jackson that we shouldn’t have to roster him to win this week. The Steelers secondary is doing a good job of limiting fantasy points to any one receiver position. However, Scott Barrett tweeted out the Steelers are a slot WR funnel defense. The Ravens slot is Willie Snead ($4500) who’s a punt option, at best. Mark Andrews ($4800) against the Steelers linebackers in coverage carries the most appeal of any Ravens player this week. With the Steelers listing Conner, JuJu, and Vance as DNPs as of Thursday, it’s looking like the Ravens DST ($3600) could be a viable play against Rudolph this week if you have some leftover salary to play with.
The Ravens defense has given up 33 and 40 points in their last two games, but they were to good offenses. Pittsburgh has good offensive talent, but is being driven by a novice QB and an offensive coordinator who can’t rely on Big Ben to get the right plays called on the field. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6400) looked gimpy last week and reportedly injured his toe. If Pitt can get him into the slot and away from Humphrey, he could have a productive game, health permitting. After Diontae Johnson ($4400) had the best game of the Steeler receivers last week he may have earned a match-up with shutdown corner Marlon Humphrey this week. If so, he’s out of the player pool for me. James Washington ($4400) has been a dud so far, even with the shower narrative with Rudolph. Vance McDonald ($3800) may be heading to the inactive list this week, which would put Nick Vannett ($2900) in line for some expanded work. Besides Kelce, to a degree, teams haven’t been able to get their TEs going against the Ravens defense, and he’s only been on the team for a week. He’s a deep prayer of a punt if you’re scrounging for salary.
Buffalo Bills (17.75/-3) at Tennessee Titans (20.75/+3) [38.5]
These two teams look like they will be in the wild card race by season’s end and are both playing really solid defense. Hard to expect much out of either offense here, but we do have two running QBs with solid floors to work with. However, their ceilings are a bit capped by the defensive schemes they are facing. This game has the lowest total of the week and the least amount of exploitable match-ups. Using anyone from this game is for MME and/or contrarian builds.
New England Patriots (28.75/-15) at Washington Redskins (13.75/+15) [42.5]
The Patriots look healthy heading into this one and should be able to beat the Redskins fairly handily. The Redskins are allowing an average of 20+ DK points a week to opponent QB and #2 WRs. Josh Norman is hurt and is allowing 16.0 PPR points per game in coverage If he’s out and replaced by Aaron Colvin, then it gets even better for the Pats as Colvin allowed 33.6 PPR points in his only game this year and got fired from the Texans because of it. Either way, it would seem either Josh Gordon ($6100) or Phillip Dorsett ($4900) are set-up for a monster game as long as the Pats have their foot on the gas for a little while. Gordon and Dorsett are still 4th and 5th in our yards of separation metric, combining for an average target separation of 2.33 yards between the two of them. Gordon is the higher volume player, although Dorsett out-targeted him by two last week. Either one of these guys could have a monster week, so if you’re MME get both into your pool. If you’re a handful of builds type player, then go with whichever one fits your particular build. The trio of backs have capped each other’s upside this season making them unattractive plays for DFS. The Patriots DST ($4300) is the best DST on the slate, but may not be so chalky with the $4300 price tag.
Saturday update: After studying NextGen passing charts (see below), it’s seems likely the Pats will test the deep part of the field (probably early) where Washington has allowed 4 TD passes of over 30 yards. Brady could see the 300+ yards and 3 TDs Wentz had in week 1 by halftime. From there it could be the Sony Michel show, with Burkhead now ruled out.
The Patriots have allowed 1 TD all year and have shut everyone down. Washington is not a good enough team to overcome this defense. Without TD upside, it’s hard to consider anyone here.
Denver Broncos (19.0/+6.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (25.5/-6.5) [44.5]
This is the first of only two afternoon (PST) games on the slate and is a divisional game. The Broncos best offensive player so far has been Emmanuel Sanders ($5100) but Courtland Sutton ($4900) has been catching up and is coming off a big week. The Chargers have used Casey Hayward to shadow Marvin Jones and DeAndre Hopkins in two of the weeks he’s played. Then didn’t have him shadow anyone in the other two so it’s hard to say if he’ll spend most of his day following either one around. If he does not, then that opens up the opportunity for either guy to have a solid game when they line up across from Facyson outside or King in the slot. The Chargers are a pretty solid all-around defense, so my guess is both top WRs share the opportunity and fantasy points not allowing for one or the other to bust out for a big game. This is pretty much the case at RB as well. Both limit each other’s upside and Denver has not consistently given one more of the opportunity than the other. If you wanted an excuse to punt at TE this week, then check out this thread Hilow posted on Twitter about the Chargers difficulties covering TEs, and roster Noah Fant for $2800.
Saturday update: I have switched my punt QB from Chase Daniel to Joe Flacco ($4700). Flacco is coming off a 300 yard, 3 TD game and faces an injured Chargers secondary who’s top pass rusher Melvin Ingram is nursing a groin injury and is questionable. The Chargers are only allowing 29 pass attempts per game, but Flacco could possibly clear 300 yards and should be good for a pair of TDs. But his main value comes in that super-low price tag. Stacking Flacco with either one of his WRs and Fant allows you to jam in a bunch of the top RBs and a good WR.
The Broncos defense has given up 24+ DK point games to Jacobs and Fournette already this year, and it looks like MG3 will see limited action this week behind Austin Ekeler ($6700) allowing us one more week to ride that gravy train. It seems likely Denver will have Chris Harris follow Keenan Allen around this week, or at least have 2 guys on Allen all game similar to what Miami did. This will put Mike Williams ($4500) in an advantageous position for a breakout game running routes at the other corners. Philip Rivers ($5800) had a nice game against the Dolphins last week but faces a tougher challenge here.
Green Bay Packers (21.5/+3.5) at Dallas Cowboys (25.0/-3.5) [46.5]
Aaron Jones ($5900) and the Packers travel to his home state to take on the team he grew up watching. He may not have to worry about Jamaal Williams stealing any touches due to his unfortunate head injury. Davante Adams ($7600) is also in danger of missing this week, leaving Jones with big shoes to fill in this offense. The Cowboys defense has great stats right now, but they haven’t played anybody until last week when they took on a Drew Brees-less Saints team. Still not a true test. Aaron Rodgers ($6000) will be their biggest challenge so far this year. Without Adams at the end of the last game, Rodgers peppered Jones and Jimmy Graham ($4300) with targets. Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5600) and Geronimo Allison ($5000) will have tougher match-ups outside with the Dallas corners. When Green Bay runs 11 personnel Jake Kumerow ($3800) may slide into an outside spot and allow Allison to come into the slot, which is still a tough match-up. Rodgers, Jones, and Graham should lead the charge in this one if Adams is out. Graham has the best match-up according to the match-up chart.
Friday Update: Adams has been ruled out. Jones and Graham get the biggest bumps up in projections.
The Packers have been gashed by the run this year and have made it their focus this week. Good idea, seeing as how they are about to take on the guy who has lead the league in rushing 2 out of the last 3 years, Ezekiel Elliott ($8300). Zeke is going to be chalky based on recency bias with everyone seeing what Jordan Howard did to them on Thursday Night Football last week. The Packers have a terrific secondary which will be a challenge for the Cowboys WRs and Dak Prescott ($6000). The best match-up in the passing game may be to throw it to Jason Witten ($3800). The Eagles 11 of their 27 targets last week toward the TEs. Four more targets went to Howard, so more than half of the offensive opportunity were funneled into the RB and TEs. Zeke should be in for a big day. This is assuming that as hard as Green Bay is working on stopping the run, Dallas will be focusing on how to get Zeke touches if they don’t want to test the corners too much. It will also slow down what has been a really good Packers pass rush to begin the year. That pass rush is going to be a problem for the Cowboys who could be without both of their starting offensive tackles this week. The Packers DST ($2400) is a sneaky punt option.
Final Thoughts
There seem to be a lot of obvious plays this week so the chalk may see a little more ownership than previous weeks. Pivoting over to good players in “bad” match-ups or less than ideal game environments seems like the way to climb leader boards in larger field tournaments. There are a handful of good punts out there, but even some of those may surprise with higher ownership than expected. Things get tighter now that we’re into the bye weeks. My advice would be to find a good optimizer and set the exposure for your pivots and punts a little higher than you expect the field to be on those guys. Good luck this week, and as always, thanks for reading!
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