DraftKings Picks Week 15: Chalk, Pivots, and Punts

QUARTERBACKS

• BEST BETS: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Taysom Hill
• PIVOTS: Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford
• PUNTS: Mitchell Trubisky, Matt Ryan

The KC/NO game is the premier stacker of the week with two high-output offenses (on a fast field) that have a concentrated distribution of opportunity. Both QBs are in play here with Patrick Mahomes likely to be the QB1 this week. If this game turns out to be as good as expected, then Taysom Hill is going to have to play tit-for-tat with the Chiefs and Mahomes. Hill has put the ball in the air 37 and 38 times the last two weeks and still has the rushing upside need to keep the Chiefs defense off-guard. Kansas City is allowing the second-most rushing points (4.1 per game) on the main slate to opposing QBs (ATL is #1 with 4.9). The Chiefs have been less stingy on defense over their last 4 weeks, allowing QBs to score 21.9 points per game which is 2.9 more than their season-long average. The QBs they’ve faced were Tua, Lock, Brady, and Carr – so no murder’s row there. The Chiefs have also allowed 24.5 points per game to those QBs and their teams (2.9 more than their season average). The Saints at home are always dynamic and this is a good spot to pay down for the other QB in this game but paying up for Mahomes will work, too. Lamar Jackson has the best matchup of the week (other than Goff, who won’t be allowed to take advantage of his). The Jaguars defense can’t stop anything right now and have allowed over 420 yards in three straight games. Jackson will be able to do whatever he wants against this defense for as long as the game remains close. The only way this game remains close is if Baltimore has the same injuries in the defensive backfield that they had to fight through last week against the Browns. It will be wise to monitor the Baltimore injury report and active list before fully committing to Jackson as a play this week.

In what’s going to be a common theme this week, good players in matchups they may get to leave work early in, Ryan Tannehill is another standout should the game remain competitive. If Matthew Stafford plays, then I suspect it will. Both QBs landed near the top of the QB Matrix this week because of the deficiencies of their respective defense. Neither the Titans nor the Lions have a pass defense or a pass rush, so these two savvy vets will be able to sit back and pick the opposing defense apart. Tom Brady also scores high in the QB Matrix and has a matchup against a team that is better at stopping the run than the pass. This should tilt Tampa toward tossing the ball near 40 times, as they saw with Herbert (44 pass attempts) and Taysom (37 pass attempts) over the past two weeks. However, the Falcons will need to stay in this game long enough for Tampa to keep their foot on the gas.

Mitchell Trubisky is in what should be a more competitive game environment compared to some of the other QBs this week. The Bears and Vikings like to play a slower-paced game, which could keep Trubisky’s pass attempts down so he’ll need an efficient game here. Minnesota doesn’t have much of a pass-rush so he’ll have time to find open receivers but we’ll need another 3 touchdown game from Mitch, something he’s done in 3 of 7 starts this year. Matt Ryan scares me a bit in this spot but I am thinking about him from a game theory lens. Opposing teams have been able to pick apart the Tampa defense lately but that’s mostly been because of Jamel Dean’s absence. Dean has been practicing and could be back this week to shadow Calvin Ridley some. The reason I’m even considering Ryan here is that this is a division matchup with a 6 point spread, a 50 point total, and Tampa tilts opponents toward the pass. 

Some of the other QBs worth looking at this week include Kyler Murray (he’s running again), Philip Rivers (leverage play in a sweet matchup against the field that will be heavy on Taylor), and Jalen Hurts (running QB that also attempted 30 passes in his first start. Arizona has struggled with running QBs and has seen a string of them recently. Rushing totals allowed to running QBs they’ve faced are Cam (46 yards), Russ (42), Josh Allen (38), Tua (35), and Russ again with 84 yards). It should be noted that Jared Goff is far and away the top QB on the QB Matrix this week but is in a matchup that just saw the Jets get trucked by the Seattle running game. McVay will prefer to win the game that way and it sets up well for the Rams to do so. However, the data is so strong to pick on the Jets secondary that it may be worth a coupled of YOLO plays of Goff to leverage away from the Cam Akers chalk. Nick Mullens is a punt QB I am on the fence about. I was this way with Drew Lock last week (had Lock in the player pool up until Saturday). Mullens is in danger of being benched if he doesn’t stop turning the ball over. This makes me think Shanahan calls a run-heavy game script but what if Dallas gets a decent lead? Mullens is the type of guy who will respond well to a challenge and doesn’t have that daunting of a defense to prevent him from getting back on track. The price is nice and I’m considering it, for now anyway.

RUNNING BACKS

• BEST BETS: Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers
• PIVOTS: Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, D’Andre Swift, 49ers RB
• PUNTS: DeAndre Washington, Gus Edwards, LeSean McCoy

Recency bias and current matchups are going to push the field into high ownership on Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and Cam Akers. These guys are all good plays but we’ll have to figure out how we’re going to roster them (if doing so) so that we’re not landing on the same builds as everyone else. Rostering each with their QB or a WR is one way to achieve that. Or, roster one with Dalvin Cook, who will go overlooked at his price and matchup. The Bears are a fierce defense but teams have had success running on them and the way the matchup tilts will be for both teams to try and run for as long as they can. This will limit volume for Cook and require him to score 2+ touchdowns to pay off his salary. But if we look at Cook as more of a low-owned way to snag 24-27 points and Henry or one of the other highly owned backs fail, we’re in good shape. Alvin Kamara is starting to work his way back into the Saints game plans and has a matchup that teams like to use their RBs to keep Mahomes off the field for as many minutes per drive as they can. Kamara saw 10 targets last week to put him back over 20 opportunities for the first time since Taysom took over at QB. Kamara also popped above 70% for snap rate, something he hadn’t done since Week 8 (before Taysom took over). New Orleans pops as one of the best OL/DL matchups to favor the running game this week and the Chiefs 3.2% DVOA against the run is the 3rd softest in the league. 

D’Andre Swift made it back last week and didn’t quite capture the feature RB role but maintained his 5 targets per game quota. Swift is priced right after Akers and makes for a good cost-pivot for lower ownership in a matchup that is just as good, if not better than Akers’ (per the RB Matrix). Swift had his third-highest snap rate of the season last week at 53% and will look to get closer to the 62% and 73% he saw in weeks 8 and 10. I have yet to see a beat comment on his workload for this week and if it stays that way, the field will be uncertain with him and allow his ownership to stay low. Swift’s range of touches over his last three games is 12 to 21, with the 12 coming last week. The 49ers RB situation will be one to monitor throughout the weekend. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson are playing through ankle injuries and Mostert may miss this week’s game. Mostert getting ruled out will be a big boost for Wilson but if Mostert plays and the tea leaves do not indicate a limited role, then we might want to roll the dice on Mostert. The 49ers running game is built around his speed and vision. His ankle has slowed him down some but he still offers the biggest threat for a home-run out of that backfield. Wilson is a violent runner that will get the yards that are there, plus a couple more. Wilson also relieves Mostert in goal-to-go situations making him a fine punt option if both guys happen to play. If Mostert is out, then we have to look at whether Tevin Coleman or Jerick McKinnon is the RB2. Neither guy is comfortably playable, however, McKinnon offers upside as a receiving back if we need to go minimum priced for a RB this week.

DeAndre Washington was bitter chalk last week for those that rostered him and could go under-played this week because of that. Gaskin and Ahmed look likely to remain out and Matt Breida will return. The Dolphins don’t seem to like Breida and Washington has seen 17 and 18 opportunities over the last two weeks making him the target if going to the Miami backfield for a punt play against a Patriots defense that will take Tua and the passing game away. The Ravens backfield pops in the RB Matrix but is hard to play because of the way they split touches. Jackson is basically the RB1 there and because of that, he doesn’t look to pass to his backs often enough to give them that receiving floor. So, that leaves us looking for yardage and TDs from the RBs. In this case, I’d rather take Gus Edwards for the cheap shot at a TD over J.K. Dobbins who costs too much to wish for a TD with. Gus has scored more points per opportunity (2.09 PPO) than Dobbins (1.10 PPO) has these past two weeks making him the preferred play for me here. LeSean McCoy stands out here because Atlanta forces teams to use their RBs through the passing game more than as runners and have seen opponents target their RBs 9.9 times per game. Ronald Jones has a finger injury and is on the Covid-19 list so his status is up in the air. Leonard Fournette will likely start ahead of Shady but has been a turd in the punch bowl since his explosive Week 2 performance. The Bucs backs are terrible when it comes to yards after the catch, including McCoy, so he’s no sure thing to hit here. McCoy is just a minimum priced play that has an opportunity for 10+ opportunities if RoJo is out.

WIDE RECEIVERS

• BEST BETS: Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson
• PIVOTS: Vikings WRs, Brandon Aiyuk, T.Y. Hilton
• PUNTS: Chad Hansen, Kendrick Bourne 
• DEEPER PUNTS: Lynn Bowden, Tre’Quan Smith, Mohamed Sanu

Tyreek Hill is the most expensive WR on the slate but that also comes with being the most explosive. In this matchup, Hill can be a slate-breaker. Lattimore won’t be able to stay with him outside and Gardner-Johnson is going to get thrashed from the slot. At $8800 we’re looking for 40 points, which is in the upper range of outcomes for him here. Hill is 5th with 11 End-Zone targets this year, which is rare for a smaller receiver. It’s usually the big-bodied guys seeing that type of usage. Kyler Murray broke out of his funk a bit last week and took DeAndre Hopkins along with him. Hopkins posted 25.6 DK points without catching a TD and had his second week of 11+ targets in a row. The way teams have been targeting Darius Slay this year, I would expect the Cardinals to try to pick on him this week. Darius Slay’s 1.68 yards per route covered is the 4th highest in the league while his 0.34 fantasy points per route covered are the 8th most. Allen Robinson has seen 29% of Trubisky’s passes this year. So even if Mitch throws it only 33 to 34 times Robinson will reach 9 or 10 targets. That’s not massive volume for a WR at his price point but the matchup against the Minnesota corners that are allowing 6th and 7th most fantasy points per route covered will ensure efficiency with those targets.

The nature of the Vikings offense makes it easy to like their top 3 offensive pieces, Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen. These three players make up 60.7% of the passing targets for Minnesota and the two WRs account for 48% between the two of them. The quality of targets they get helps them be efficient. Jefferson took Jaylon Johnson apart for 135 receiving yards the last time he faced him and Thielen caught two TDs in the same game. Thielen, who has missed a game this year, leads the NFL with 17 End-Zone targets which is why he has 4 multi-touchdown games this year. These guys did their damage without taking Cousins (an $800 cheaper Cousins) along with them. They both make for great one-off plays if you’re building around cheaper stacks. Brandon Aiyuk has 49 targets over the last 4 weeks and faces a defense that is easier to run against but Aiyuk will see most of the targets for his team and could be used on jet sweeps. Aiyuk is underpriced for this recent volume spike. T.Y. Hilton is no stranger to monster games against the Texans and had his breakout game of 2020 against these Texans just a couple of weeks ago. Hilton makes for a nice leverage piece off of Jonathan Taylor’s projected high ownership.

Chad Hansen isn’t in a great matchup this week but he wasn’t the last time he played these Colts and he was targeted 7 times, followed by another 7 target game last week. On a price-per-target basis, Hansen is a value play. Kendrick Bourne has the practice narrative going between him and Nick Mullens. He’s the guy Mullens is comfortable going to and has seen 5 to 10 targets over the past 5 games. If Mullens is trying to fix his game, then he may give his practice buddy a few extra trust throws. Lynn Bowden impressed his coaches last week when he had to step in for the banged-up starters ahead of him and Flores said “he’ll be more and more a part of the offense going forward.” At $3600, any more involvement could lead to more than the 15 points he scored last week, making him a solid punt if you need to squeeze in a Chiefs/Saints stack this week. Speaking of that stack, one of the cheap Saints we can use there is Tre’Quan Smith, who has seen 6 targets each of the last two weeks and has 4 TD catches on the season. Mohamed Sanu is not the most exciting play but he’s minimum price and should be involved in a game where the Lions are throwing to stay in the game and could see a bump to his 2 targets per game he’s had over the last two weeks. 

Here are some notes on other WRs I am looking at: The Rams have a smash matchup for the passing game but are not likely to have to lean on the pass to win this game. Cooper Kupp will be busy catching first downs on 3rd and short situations. Kupp also leads his team in Red Zone targets. Corey Davis was a dud for anyone who rostered him last week which could drive ownership down for him in this great matchup. I like A.J. Brown better but not at his price. Instead, I’d rather try a few lines with Tannehill and Davis, or Tanny/Brown/Davis as leverage plays against the Henry chalk. Devin Duvernay becomes interesting if the two WRs ahead of him on the depth chart do not make it back from the Covid-19 list for this game. Terry McLaurin has been a ghost of himself with Alex Smith at QB. If Haskins starts at QB this week, it may unlock his potential against a defense that hasn’t been a stranger to allowing good WRs to put up points against them. Chris Godwin has the best matchup in the Bucs/Falcons game running routes from the slot against Isaiah Oliver who is 3rd in fantasy points allowed per route covered and 3rd in yards allowed per route covered, according to PFF data.

TIGHT ENDS

• BEST BETS: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews
• PIVOTS: Mike Gesicki, Rob Gronkowski 
• PUNTS: Gerald Everett, Cole Kmet

Travis Kelce doesn’t pop on the TE Matrix, which is based on what the opposing defense allows, but he and Mahomes are on another level as competitors and are capable of destroying any matchup. TE is a wasteland once again this week so paying up to get Kelce is something everyone will be thinking about but the construction of the rest of the roster is what may prevent them from achieving it. It took until deep in the game last week for Mark Andrews to get involved but he was Lamar’s go-to man once they needed to make a comeback. If they get him going right away, he could have a big game, especially if the WRs on the Covid list don’t make it off that list before Sunday. Mike Gesicki is in a position where he’s going to have to take on more of the offensive duties if Parker and/or Grant were to miss this week. Gesicki has great ceiling-to-price potential this week. Only the Rams TE have more green boxes on the TE Matrix than Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate. Since acclimating to the offense early in the year, Gronk has not scored in single digits twice in a game since Week 4 and Week 5. He scored single digits last week and has a fantastic matchup to put up 15-18 points in this spot. The Rams TEs pop in the TE Matrix and could be heavily involved with the Rams running so much 12 personnel these past few weeks. Both Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett were on the field for at least 84% of the plays last week after being on the field for 84% and 73% last week, respectively. Higbee is a fine play but with both guys seeing similar usage (snaps and targets), I’d rather pay down for the more athletic of the two TEs. Cole Kmet has overtaken Jimmy Graham as the Bears #1 TE and has seen 7 targets in each of the last two weeks. Kmet is the best cheap TE on the board this week with that volume. 

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

• BEST BETS: Rams, Ravens, Colts
• PIVOTS: Buccaneers, Cardinals
• PUNTS: None (but read the paragraph)

 Let’s face it, the Jets are historically bad and are not going to score more than 3 to 10 points against the Rams. Donald is going to wreak havoc and the corners are not going to give Darnold anywhere to throw. The combo of low points allowed, sacks and turnovers make the Rams far and away the top defense this week. The Ravens may not stay in this tier as we start to see inactives but if their corners are healthy, they belong in the mix for top 3 to 5 defense for the slate. The way they create turnovers is unparalleled by any other team right now. Minshew got his job back so he may be coming in with some moxie but we’ll see how long that holds up. The Texans have no one left for Watson to make plays with. Maybe he gets Cooks back this week but is it too little too late against this Colts defense that can smoother an inept offense? If the Buccaneers and Falcons were playing in Tampa I’d probably like the Bucs defense a little better against Matt Ryan’s diminishing talent and lack of Julio but I still like them plenty enough. The Bucs defensive line and the potential return of Jamel Dean should be enough to destroy these one-dimensional birds. Last week I thought Hurts would struggle in his rookie debut against a top-tier defense like the Saints and he excelled. This week I am thinking the Cardinals and their attacking defense may be able to get to him and create some sacks and turnover opportunities. This week is going to be tough to pay down at defense and I don’t like any of the $2400 or less. However, if we’re forced to scrape the bottom of the barrel in a couple of lines, then I don’t absolutely hate the Falcons or the Texans. Falcons are at home against an offense that seems to be on different pages throughout the game and their run defense can force Tampa to go one-dimensional where they have shown improvement since the bye week in pass defense. Houston is a mess but if they can get Uncle Phil flustered enough to make poor decisions they might be able to house an INT for six.

FINAL THOUGHTS