DraftKings NFL Picks Week 9
Initial Thoughts
Before starting any research, besides glancing at the MATCH-UP CHART HERE, this appears to be an ugly and obvious slate. Instinctually, we should know which teams should smash, which teams to avoid, which players are in good spots, etc this late into the season. I like to make a dummy build on Sunday night or Monday morning after watching the most recent week as a way of reminding myself what my thoughts were after the week is done. Of course, we want to hammer the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Lions with RBs. Smash TEs against Arizona, Tampa Bay, and Seattle. But what are the plays to help us differentiate? If everyone else is thinking these same ideas, the builds will all be pretty similar due to the remaining salary after you cram in three bell-cow backs in good spots. Let’s see what we can figure out this week.
Review
“Chalk, Pivots, and Punts” is an NFL DFS series focused around main slate GPPs. We go game by game looking at potential chalk plays to pivot away from, and perhaps discover some diamond in the rough type punt plays to add a differentiation piece to our builds. Each game will have a brief write up and will include the team’s projected point total and Vegas Implied point spread as of the time of writing. Here is a link to a Google Sheet that presents data I collect throughout the season breaking down points allowed to specific positions, and displays home/road splits, as well as the combined data. Below are links to the final data from last year I posted to Twitter.
- Link to Tweet: Chart showing where defenses allowed fantasy points by position last year
- Link to Tweet: Chart showing how defenses allowed TDs by Passing & Rushing last year
When discussing pivot plays, it’s not always as simple as saying “Player A” is chalk so pivot to “Player B”. Pivots can be a pivot from one player to another player at the same position, a pivot from one position to another, or just a way to pivot to the other side of a game that everyone else might be heavy to one side of. Simply put, the pivots will not always be direct pivots, more like other ideas to consider in the macro-view of the slate.
Process
The process I use for this article and for selecting my player pool starts with the data I collect and chart. The match-up chart and individual match-ups are the first layers of the onion. Once we have that peeled we should have a sizable player pool to work with. The next step is to reconcile that data. I use the Google sheet above to reconcile the match-up chart by looking at what the opposing teams did to allow those numbers. Who did they face to get there? What were the game environments like? I try to watch as many games as I can, but I can’t watch them all, so I do a lot of reading from my Beat Writer list to keep up with injuries, changes to the way the team is playing, and look for other general trends to consider. Using Fantasy Data’s resources helps get a snapshot on a team and player level for the offenses to see what type of numbers they are putting up. Then, it’s about identifying what the top plays are for the slate, and how heavily they will be owned. This is where we need to have some pivots in our back pocket, and if necessary some punts if we want to jam in a bunch of elite plays and have to look for a value guy to put up 10 or more points. Game theory, contest selection, and roster construction are the final challenges as we try to put it all together. This where we win or lose.
Below is my Chalk, Pivots, and Punts Chart based on my opinion of the slate and what the field will likely be on this week.
Let’s get after it…
Washington Redskins (12.75/+10.5) at Buffalo Bills (23.25/-10.5) [36]
Before last week, Buffalo was among the elite defenses in the league in terms of Fantasy Points Allowed across all positions. Then, Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders steamrolled them in a game where Philly was playing for their playoff lives and had a bunch of turmoil to put behind them (ie. emotional game). Washing has no such motivation, nor do they have the talent to compete in this game. The Redskins are a full fade for me this week, but I don’t play 150 line-ups. If you’re MME, it makes sense to throw a few builds with Terry McLaurin ($6200) out there.
The Redskins defense has been pretty susceptible to running backs this year. Problem is Buffalo has a 2 back system where one guy gets the vast majority of carries and the other can see 6 targets but is otherwise limited to 10 or fewer opportunities in the game. Both of the Bills backs come in below $5k, so if looking to punt with someone like Devin Singletary ($4700) this week, you could do worse. Washington has seen a lot of targets go toward running backs this year, which would be ideal for Singletary in this one. Where the Bills need to get it going is in the passing game. They have looked flat coming out of their bye week and McDermott is asking for the offense to evolve. We’ll see what that means, if anything, after this week is over. As of yet to build my 5-20 line-ups (depending on contest selection) for the week I am thinking I would like to have at least one Josh Allen ($6500) with John Brown ($6100) stack. The price on Allen (6th highest QB) may get a good amount of the field to balk at him, making him an interesting pivot. The Bills DST ($3800) against Haskins looks like a tasty play if you can afford it.
Tennessee Titans (19.0/+3.5) at Carolina Panthers (22.5/-3.5) [41.5]
Christian McCaffrey ($10,000) is the first player to cross the 5 figure mark in pricing this year. He is pretty close to “match-up invincible” this year and I expect no different here. The cost is high but so is the floor (5 out of 7 games at 30+ points) with ceiling potential into the 40’s and 50’s. Of the other skill position players, only Curtis Samuel ($4300) and Greg Olsen ($3500) have eclipsed the 20 point mark, each doing it twice. DJ Moore ($4800) would be the only other guy to consider here, but the Titans are very stingy with passing fantasy points allowed making none of them ideal plays for this slate.
Minnesota Vikings (25.0/-1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (23.5/+1.5) [48.5]
We all know to target the Chiefs with RBs by now, and this week we gt one of the elite fantasy plays going against their front. Chris Jones appears likely to play this week, which will slow Dalvin Cook ($9500) down some, but he’s still a top 2 or 3 back for the slate. Understanding that opponents are so successful on the ground against the Chiefs and seeing the low passing fantasy points allowed indicates you’re betting on a change in circumstances to roster the Vikings passing pieces. If Spagnuolo comes up with a game-plan capable of taking Cook out of the game, or Mahomes starts and the Chiefs get out to a big lead early, then we will want to have rostered Kirk Cousins ($6700), Adam Thielen ($7800), and Stefon Diggs ($7600), and even then Cook should still be involved. If playing in large-field tourneys and/or MME stuff, then pivoting over from Cook to the passing game makes sense as a way to leverage what should be high ownership on Cook. NOTE: The Chiefs defense with Chris Jones on the field has allowed an average of 22.1 DK points to RBs, but while he was out that average skyrocketed to 40.9 DK points per game. Also, note that Thielen is going to be a game-time decision with his hamstring injury.
How we approach the Chiefs offense will be determined by the health of Patrick Mahomes ($7000). If he plays, then we’re full go on the skill positions guys with our primary focus on the Tyreek Hill ($7400), Travis Kelce ($6900), and even Sammy Watkins ($4900) who is priced way down due to limited output since week one. The Vikings defense is generally tough, but their top two outside corners are allowing at least 10.5 PPR points per game to receivers in their coverage. Hill has the super-high ceiling because of his speed, but Watkins deserves consideration in what could be a high volume pass environment for KC, as Minnesota is one of the top run defenses in the league.
New York Jets (23.0/-3.5) at Miami Dolphins (19.5/+3.5) [42.5]
This game could be the key to the slate based on the value and match-ups available to exploit. Adam Gase returns to Miami to challenge his former team to win a game and cost them their first overall selection. Will the Jets strategically lose this game to hurt the Dolphins chances? This is said tongue in cheek, but I would not be surprised if Miami wins this game. Both of these teams are awful on both sides of the ball. Do we get to see a game where since both offenses are playing such bad defenses on the other side that they both actually look competent? We’ll see. I do have some interest in quite a few pieces here in case this does become a decent game. My primary interest is in Le’Veon Bell ($7700) who is priced up for the match-up. Bell has severely underperformed so far but has a get right match-up here. With Xavien Howard going to IR, there is nothing to fear in the secondary so a Jets pass stack (barf) is in play. Sam Darnold ($5900) who has also been opponent-adjusted in his pricing should finally have a good game with all his weapons healthy. Robby Anderson ($5500) is the most explosive player to work within this stack and is not priced too high, though he also got a price bump. Demaryius Thomas ($4000) is interesting as a salary saving punt option.
The Jets have been easier to attack through the air and to the outsides than on the ground or over the middle toward their two stud safeties. However, the Jets traded away Leonard Williams and will be without their top 5 inside-linebackers as of the start of the season. This sets up well for Mark Walton ($4500) as Miami’s new bell-cow back to have a really good game for his price. Walton took 79% of the RB carries and saw 6 targets last week. With the unstable play you get with Ryan Fitzpatrick ($4800) at QB, O’Shea could look to hammer Walton at the Jets as much as possible. Fitzpatrick is punt priced and should this game turn into a back-and-forth affair, he should put up reasonable numbers to offer the salary relief to go up and get 2-3 of the top RBs into your build. The Jets outside coverage is weak, but they have only allowed 3 WRs to post a 20 point game against them (Smoke, OBJ, and Conley). Devante Parker ($4400) or Preston Williams ($4200) could post a 20+ game but game-script should keep Walton as the focal point of the offense unless Fitzpatrick is turning the ball over as frequently as he was last week. Both guys are priced so low they are worth a shot if you’re generating multiple builds.
Chicago Bears (18.75/+4) at Philadelphia Eagles (22.75/-4) [41.5]
Matt Nagy finally figured out what to do with David Montgomery ($5200) last week and he had a terrific game. Even though the Eagles have faced a rash of injuries at DT and have been softer against the run of late, they could still be strong enough to hold Montgomery in check. They shut down the Bills run game last week. Allen Robinson ($6800) has a target rate of 26% of the Bears passes which ties him for 4th highest in the league. He will be the focal point of the Bears attack this week. Darby, Mills, and Maddox are all back in the line-up as the starting corners but they’re not shut-down types which should lead to a strong game by Robinson. Taylor Gabriel ($3900) is an interesting punt play here. We would expect the Eagles to try and take away Robinson and let their front 7 do what they do against the run. That could mean a couple or few more targets either heading Gabriel’s way or toward Tarik Cohen ($4200).
Jordan Howard ($5100) revenge game anyone? It seems like a smash spot for him at home, against a defense missing their key run-stopping cog (Hicks). It would seem likely that Philly tries the ground game against after its success last week. Howard would be an easier play if Miles Sanders ($4600) is out, but he seems likely to go. Carson Wentz ($5700) is pretty cheap this week, relative to the other QB prices. There’s no key stat to point to that make Wentz look like a good play but his price has him on my radar. If the Bears show up to stop Howard, then this will be Wentz’s game to win. I’d like to see Desean Jackson ($5200) come back this week and give Philly a deep presence to help free up the rest of the guys but he’ll probably be on a snap count if he does play, so I won’t roster him. Zach Ertz ($4700) is no longer priced like an elite TE which makes a Wentz/Ertz stack very interesting here. With Trubisky’s struggles, we can consider the Eagles DST ($3000) in this spot as well.
Indianapolis Colts (21.25/-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (20.25/+1) [41.5]
The Steelers defense has only allowed 6 players all season to score more than 20 DK points against them and only 3 were non-QBs (Dissly, Dorsett, and Hunter Henry). The Steelers defense doesn’t show any exploitable weakness from this angle, except for through the TE position. The match-up chart shows they allow a lot of passes to RBs as well. However, the Colts play a committee at both the TE and RB positions making this an unappealing match-up all the way around for Colts skill players. Frank Reich will figure out something to get his offense going but to the untrained eye, it’s not obvious what that will be, especially with their best player (Hilton) being ruled out for this game.
The Steelers will also be challenged to find an exploitable match-up here. However, Jaylen Samuels ($4000) stands out as a possible free-square type of play with both Conner and Snell likely out. The Steelers will try to run as much as possible and work in shots from Mason Rudolph ($5000) from there. JuJu Smith Schuster ($6300) seems to be over his toe injury and is playing well lately. The Colts have been exploitable at TE as well, so Vance McDonald ($4100) could see his minimal involvement of late spike and be relevant this week. The Steelers DST ($2400) makes for a nice, low-priced option to help cram in some of the expensive plays into the build.
Detroit Lions (24.0/+2.5) at Oakland Raiders (26.5/-2.5) [50.5]
This appears to be one of the more exciting games on the slate and easier to identify where the points will come from. For the Lions, we know Matt Stafford ($6800) is slinging the ball all over the yard and is one of the top deep throwing QBs this season. Darrell Bevell seems to be identifying one match-up he wants to exploit each week with Kenny Golladay ($7700) and Marvin Jones ($6000) alternating big games over the past 5 weeks with Golladay leading 3 to 2. Could this be another Marvin Jones week? Game logs indicate this is likely another Golladay week as the top-performing WRs against the Raiders have all been the #1 WR for the opposing team. Another exploitable match-up against the Raiders defense is against their linebackers and safeties. T.J Hockenson ($3700) could be a big part of the game-plan here, as could Danny Amendola ($4700).
The Raiders are playing their first game in Oakland since week 2. Finally home, I don’t expect much to change with their play-calling, but they do seem to be getting healthier on offense. Josh Jacobs ($6500) is the centerpiece of this offense and will be fed early and often here. It’s too bad Gruden has lived up to the quote from a few weeks ago when he said he wanted to get Jacobs more involved in the passing game because he’d be a lock play this week if he saw bell-cow volume as a runner and pass-catcher. Still, he’s a really good play against a soft Lions run defense. Tyrell Williams ($5900) also seems to be getting over his foot issue and will give Carr his top outside target back. Darren Waller ($6300) going against back-up safeties is something to get excited about if you can afford him. This is one of the few games on the slate where you can feel good about a full game stack and fill in the rest with value pieces.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (23.75/+5.5) at Seattle Seahawks (29.25/-5.5) [53]
The strength of the Tampa defense puts Seattle’s offensive preference in a bind. Seattle likes to run the ball but no one has had much success with that against this Bucs front 7, so they may have to figure something else out. Chris Carson ($7200) is priced as though he is not facing the Bucs and will need to catch some passes and punch in some goal-line TDs to pay off his price tag. The Bucs defense has been awful in the secondary, which is where Russell Wilson ($7100) should be able to exploit them with his deep passing. Tyler Lockett ($7500) has only two games over 10 targets this season (which are the only 10+ target games of his career) and has only caught two TDs in a game twice (both in his rookie year, three and a half years ago). To pay $7500 (obviously opponent-adjusted pricing) you have to believe he sees 10+ targets and/or scores 2 touchdowns. It’s possible, though a tough bet to make. DK Metcalf ($5700) sees 9 or fewer targets per game and has three games where he has scored a TD, including last week’s double-donger. If we’re expecting Russ to have to throw to win, then we have to project where those Vegas-implied 4 TDs come from. There’s a good chance three of those TDs come through the air, and a good chance they get spread out. The Cardinals were being called the “Flow Chart” defense for TEs, yet I haven’t seen much chatter about how bad Tampa has been against TEs The Bucs are the only team besides Arizona allowing more than 20 DK points per game to the TE position. Seattle has had to reshape their TE position since the start of the year and are currently running Jacob Hollister ($2900) and Luke Willson ($2900) out there over the last 3 weeks. During those 3 weeks, both players have identical routes run numbers, but over the last two weeks, Hollister has 8 targets while Willson only has 2. If you are looking for a punt at TE this week you might want to consider Hollister.
Cleveland Browns (21.25/-3.5) at Denver Broncos (17.75/+3.5) [39]
Baker Mayfield ($5100) has had a rough season so far. Now he gets to test his altitude fortitude against a Fangio defense. His price tag is enticing and he seems pissed off right now, so maybe he’s due for a good game. Hard to know for sure, so I’m only considering him as a contrarian pivot in large-field, multi-entry tourneys. Chris Harris is likely to follow Odell Beckham ($6600) around which will limit his ceiling, plus he is dealing with a groin injury. Duke Dawson should see a lot of Jarvis Landry in the slot which is a tough match-up by coverage points allowed where Dawson has only allowed an average of 1.9 PPR points per game to receivers in his coverage. That leaves us scraping the bottom of the barrel with Antonio Callaway ($3300) or Rashard Higgins ($3100) as the best stacking option for him. In this article, Higgins seems to believe he will play more and has the home state college narrative going for him. Higgins is a Mayfield favorite and tends to see a lot of deep targets allowing him to have a high ceiling if he’s a major part of the game-plan. The other guy we can consider here is Ricky Seals-Jones ($2900). If you want to cram in all the top RBs on the slate, then a Baker/Higgins/RSJ stack will get you there and give you the low owned plays to counter the RB chalk you’ll roster. Nick Chubb ($7300) is probably the best way to go here, as he should still see a heavy workload and although Denver fixed their run defense leaks early in the year, he could still find the volume to produce. Stacking Chubb with the Browns DST ($3100) is the probable path to real-life success for the Browns to win this game. The Broncos defense has only allowed 0.75 passing TDs per game and a muti-TD passing rate of one out of every four games. This would also point us toward Chubb and the run game.
Brandon Allen ($4100) will likely be a cash game staple for some this week, as he too allows you to cram in all the RBs. Allen was a 6th round pick by the Jaguars back in 2016 and has yet to step on the field for an NFL regular-season game. He’s another reason to like the Browns defense who got their top two corners back last week. With Ward and Greedy in coverage, the Browns sack rate increases by nearly 2% while Pass Success Rate drops by 18%. My assumption for the Broncos game-plan is the Broncos coaches will try to keep the ball in the hands of Phillip Lindsay ($5300) and Royce Freeman ($4900) as much as possible and allow their 4th ranked defense to keep the game close. Explosive pass play percentage stays about the same with or without Ward and Greedy on the field, which allows the 6th fewest pass plays of over 20 yards (21 total) but has allowed 5 plays of over 40 yards (5th most – though we’re dealing with differences of one play each between positioning here). Courtland Sutton ($5800) is the most dangerous weapon Denver has in the passing game and they will draw up plays to get him the ball. He’s priced as a low-end WR1 facing a tough defense, which is appropriate, but if Cleveland somehow angry-smashes in this spot he will be needed to stay in the game and the price becomes a bargain. A punt with slot receiver DaeSean Hamilton ($3700) could make some sense as a guy Brandon Allen will look to for easy throws to move the chains, or as the guy he finds coming back to the ball if he’s scrambling around. The Browns are allowing 3.8 points above the league average of 10.5 DK points per game to slot receivers, which indicates a weakness to exploit. As already mentioned, Denver has the 4th ranked overall defense and is playing at home against a Browns team that has been struggling this year making the Broncos DST ($2900) a solid option this week.
Green Bay Packers (25.5/-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (22.0/+3.5) [47.5]
This game sets up well for the Packers running game. Aaron Jones ($7000) and Jamaal Williams ($5900) should have no trouble finding room to run with all the injuries on the defensive interior for LA. Jones leads the Packers in targets and the NFL in touchdowns and looks like an obvious play in this situation. He should come in lower owned than some of the other top running backs making him a quality pivot option, however, there are some risks with him. Williams may get a little extra run if the Packers pile up a huge lead early and protect Jones’s (listed as questionable) shoulder. This scenario could lower Jones’s ceiling unless he’s the reason for the big lead. Davante Adams ($7100) seems to be trending toward playing this week and would give Aaron Rodgers ($6900) his favorite weapon back, and could also pull targets/opportunity/production away from Jones. Adams will likely face off against his former teammate Casey Hayward, who is generally a very good cover corner and is only allowing an average of 5.6 PPR points in his coverage this season. It’s an “iron sharpens iron” match-up though which raises the competitive level for both guys and we could still see Adams win enough times to put up a solid line. With Adams back, the rest of the receivers will take a back-seat and become mostly unplayable in DFS. The Packers DST ($3400) is a pricing but reasonable option against the Chargers slow-paced offense who will be in their first game under a new coordinator.
The Chargers have been running one of the slowest offenses in the league this year and even with their top 5 weapons healthy and playing together weeks 6-8 are only averaging 52.7 run plus pass attempts per game. Their run/pass ratio has gone to 70% pass to 30% run during these last three games as well, which likely the cause of letting Whisenhunt go. Under a brand new coordinator it’s hard to predict how opportunity will be distributed, but over the three games with all of Melvin Gordon ($5000), Austin Ekeler ($6000), Keenan Allen ($6400), Mike Williams ($4600), and Hunter Henry ($6000) on the field together the Chargers offense has no runs over 20 yards, 8 (2.7/g) passes over 20 yards, and 2 (0.67/g) passes over 40 yards. The target share has gone Allen (24.3%), Henry (20.8%), Williams (19.7%), Ekeler (13.5%), and MG3 (8.9%). MG3 is handling a 26.6% to 17.7% total offensive opportunity share over Ekeler. Should any of this stay the same the player that looks like the obvious value play here is Mike Williams at $4600. Allen has suffered a huge drop off in yards per game averaging 49 per game compared to Williams’ 62.7 and Henry’s 81.3. We don’t really know what to expect from Steichen, however, this article seems to indicate former RB turned head coach Anthony Lynn would like to see the running game get back on track. That points to Melvin Gordon being a potentially solid pivot option at low ownership. The Packers a bit vulnerable to TEs, so Henry needs to be in the player pool this week as well.
Final Thoughts
For a ten-game slate, it seems like we don’t have too much that will be extremely high owned plays, outside a few of the RBs. QB, WR, and TE seem like they’ll all be spread out. My initial thoughts on the slate had me thinking I wanted to stick to one optimal line-up and play it across multiple contests, but now I like more than I did then, and want to try quite a few different angles of attacking this slate. Three out of those 4 late games give great game-stacking options, and the Jets/Dolphins provides a lot of value plays. Good luck this week, and as always, thanks for reading!
