Week one features a doubleheader of games with Houston traveling to New Orleans in the early game and Denver heading to Oakland in the nightcap. With two games on Monday in week one, Draftkings is running a traditional 3-game slate that includes the Sunday night game between the Steelers and Patriots instead of their showdown product. I’ll break all three games and give you my top plays from each team for DFS purposes on Draftkings.
Pittsburgh (+6) @ New England (O/U 51)
The Steelers travel to Foxboro for a showdown with the defending Super Bowl Champs on Sunday night. This game has one of the higher totals of week 1 and could feature plenty of offense. Both the Steelers and Patriots defenses finished in the middle of the pack last season in total offense allowed, so with two good offenses and two average defenses we should definitely see some points scored.
Tom Brady and the Patriots are notoriously slow starters out of the gate and will be without Rob Gronkowski, who retired in the offseason. The Patriots don’t play too many starters in the preseason (then again, who did) but it’s hard to imagine that a team this good and well-coached will be overly rusty. Brady has a healthy Josh Gordon at his disposal as well as Julian Edelman and a solid run game featuring Sony Michel.
The Steelers pulled off a 17-10 victory over the Patriots last season, but New England has had their number lately winning the last five consecutive meetings before that. The Pittsburgh defense should be improved this year with the additions of Devin Bush at middle linebacker and Steven Nelson at cornerback. Meanwhile, their offense should continue to be a high-scoring unit despite the departure of Antonio Brown as JuJu Smith-Schuster looks every bit the part of a being a star wide receiver.
I’m a Steelers fan, so perhaps I am biased, but I think they can steal one here if they play well. The buzz around this Steelers team has been building all through training camp and they could be a more focused and hungry football team with the distractions of Bell and Brown behind them.
***Breaking News*** Antonio Brown has signed with the Patriots but is not eligible to play in this game.
Houston (+7) @ New Orleans (0/U 52.5)
This game is going to be a lot of fun to watch and probably the game that draws the most ownership in DFS contests. The Saints are implied for 30 points in this game despite the fact that the Texans were 5th in total offense allowed last season. This New Orleans offense remains mostly intact from last season other than the departure of Mark Ingram and is one of the best scoring units in football. They are also exceptional at home on turf where their speed becomes a major matchup problem. Michael Thomas has a great individual matchup here as the Texans ranked 31st in the league against the WR1 position last season.
The Texans made some major moves this preseason, bringing in Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde to man their backfield after cutting D’Onta Foreman and losing Lamar Miller to a season-ending injury. Then they surprised everyone by trading away Jadeveon Clowney to Seattle and acquiring Laremy Tunsil to play left tackle and protect Deshaun Watson’s blindside. This Texans offense has the potential to be a good one with if Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, and the newly acquired Kenny Stills can move the chains with the passing game. The Saints pass defense is their weak spot as they finished 22nd in DVOA against the pass while they were pretty stout against the run finishing 3rd.
I like the over in this game, but I think the Saints will be too much for the Texans and secure their first win at home.
Denver (-1) @ Oakland (O/U 43.5)
So Antonio Brown is definitely not playing in this game since he was released by the team on Saturday morning, ending one of the most bizarre sports stories of the summer. The Raiders are slight favorites at home, but you have to wonder how they will respond in this game after losing their best player before he could even play a meaningful snap for this team. It’s a major blow for their passing attack, but I suppose to it could also rally them together as a team. I don’t mess around with narratives very often, so I’ll just stick to the matchups.
The Denver defense was a solid unit last year, so Derek Carr and the Oakland offense will have their work cut out for them. The teams split the season series last year with Denver winning 20-19 at home but falling 27-14 in Oakland on Christmas Eve. The Broncos are counting on veteran Joe Flacco to make their passing game more reliable and some improvement from young receivers Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton. They continue to have a two-headed running attack that features Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman, who combined for over 1500 yards rushing last season.
I really like Denver even on the road tonight. They are probably not a playoff contender, but I think they are a better team on both sides of the ball than Oakland and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them control this game from the outset.
DFS Breakdown
My main strategy will be to focus on the Steelers-Patriots game and the Saints-Texans game for my DFS plays and I think game stacking either of those two games is a viable strategy. I am going to avoid the Denver-Oakland game as much as possible other than a few value options that will help fit in some of the pricier plays from the other two games.
Quarterback
Dashaun Watson (6800) is the top play at QB on this slate and also the most expensive. His ability to run gives him a higher ceiling and floor than any of the other quarterbacks on the slate and the matchup against the Saints is a good one. If this game does, in fact, shoot out, then we can expect Watson to have to throw the ball a lot in order for the Texans to hang around with the Saints.
Ben Roethlisberger (6000) is my favorite GPP play at the position. The Steelers have become a pass-first offense in the latter stages of Big Ben’s career and he’s supposedly in the best shape of his career right now and excited about the group of receivers he has. If you think the Steelers win this game or that it goes over the total, it’s likely because Big Ben had a big day and threw for multiple touchdowns.
Joe Flacco (5100) is really cheap and facing an Oakland secondary that was very porous last season. Pairing him with one of his cheap receivers is going to save you a lot of salary cap space to squeeze in some other high priced plays.
Running Back
James Conner (7300) is the one back on this slate that the most likely to get 25 or more touches and has a positive matchup against the New England defense. His usage in the passing game makes him a valuable commodity in DFS and he’s underpriced here for his upside in this game.
Sony Michel (5900) is firmly in play on this slate and I think the Patriots will make every effort to establish him in the run game early on. If they end up playing from in front, then you can rest assured they will feed him the ball down the stretch, too. He’s got multiple touchdown upside every week in this offense.
James White (4700)
White is a nice pivot off Michel if you think the Patriots end up playing from behind or fail to establish Michel early on. He’s always a high upside play on Draftkings with full PPR scoring due to his role in the passing game.
Carlos Hyde (3900) is really cheap and could push for 20 carries in this game if the Texans are able to run the ball successfully. We have no idea how the work is going to be divided up between him and Duke Johnson, but he’s 2100 less and I’ll take my chances on him for this price. Even a modest rushing total with a touchdown is going to pay off his price tag.
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas (7800) is a target monster who has massive upside in PPR scoring. He just needs to get in the end zone more often this season. He’s the highest priced option at the position but definitely the best stacking partner if you’re rostering Drew Brees or loading up on that game.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (7300) is primed for a huge season. I am going to try to be well over the field on him in this matchup against New England as I think Ben is going to continue to force-feed him the ball this year. He could end up being an 8k+ receiver on Draftkings as early as next week with a big performance against New England.
Will Fuller (5300) is my favorite guy to stack with Watson as the two of them have teamed up for 13 touchdowns in only 30 games together. He’s a vertical threat that can take the top off a defense and has big-play potential making him an elite GPP play, especially at this price.
DaeSean Hamilton (4200) is my favorite cheap Broncos receiver, although Sutton and Sanders are fairly cheap, too. I like Hamilton’s athleticism and potential big-play ability. If Sanders is the possession receiver and Sutton is the outside guy running down the field, Hamilton provides a little of the best of both worlds and I think Flacco will realize he’s the most talented of the bunch pretty quickly.
Tight End
Jared Cook (4900) is pretty pricey but probably has the highest ceiling of any tight end on the slate. Drew Brees loves throwing to tight ends and Cook is easily an upgrade at the position this season from the aging Ben Watson. The Houston secondary is softest in the middle of the field where Cook will be running the majority of his routes.
I truly believe that Vance McDonald (4200) is in for a big year as the primary tight end for this Steelers offense. He flashed some major upside last year at times and has the athleticism and playmaking ability to be a major threat in the passing game for the Steelers. He makes for a relatively cheap stacking option with Big Ben.
Defense
Denver’s defense is the most expensive at 3500, but also has the best matchup against Oakland and Derek Carr who has been turnover-prone in his career. My sneaky defense on this slate will be the Saints (3000), who despite giving up a lot of points last year were also able to create 24 turnovers. If they are playing from in front, the Saints will be positioned to rack up sacks against Watson, who took the most sacks of any quarterback last year.
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