Analysis of the 2024 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft
Fantasy baseball season is finally upon us, and I, for one, could not be happier. Some of the best in the business recently completed a mock draft, and now everyone reading this gets to reap the benefits of the information.
How high did the top rookies go? Did veteran players slide? Were there some Homer picks? It’s time to find the best and worst parts of this startup dynasty mock draft. Let’s dig in…
Best Picks
Looking back at this draft and finding players that were taken at a good spot wasn’t exactly the easiest thing to do. It appears all the players went right about where they were supposed to or that they were reached on. However, getting Shohei Ohtani at the 7th overall pick felt like stealing. Ohtani is a literal unicorn, a once-in-a-lifetime talent with a rookie of the year award and two MVP awards in his six-year career. He posts elite numbers both pitching and hitting and typically blows away the competition in whatever scoring format you use. But now, you’re only getting one facet. Lucky for the owner of this team Ohtani has slugged 124 homeruns, drove in 290 RBIs, and averaged .588 in slugging percentage the last three years. I don’t see too much cause for concern here.
With the 2nd pick of the 4th round, Oneil Cruz was selected to be the anchor at short for this team. Sure, we all know the issues with Cruz. He’s a special ball player with plus metrics in every category and looks every bit ready to breakout, but his health is what is capping his upside. He was a rookie in 2022 and played very well but was still raw. Unfortunately, his 2023 campaign ended nine games in after he suffered a season-ending injury. Over the course of his 98 games played, he has a .751 OPS and 19 homeruns. If you extend this out over 162 games, he would have 31 big flies and the same OPS. I’ll buy the talent and upside with this one.
Fast forward 14 picks and we have our next player. Michael Harris II was selected with the 4th pick in the 5th round. A rookie of the year winner in 2022, Harris falling this far truly seemed blasphemous. He’s swiped 20 bags each of the last two seasons and his OPS hasn’t dipped below .800. Of course, people are turned off to his spot in the batting order, but realistically, how do you put Harris anywhere else in this Atlanta Braves lineup? He thrives where he is and is hitting in the most potent lineup in all of baseball. OH! And he’s only 22 years old so he has a nice, long career ahead of him.
The final player selected that is considered a “best pick” is Mike Trout just five picks after Harris in the 5th round. Trout will go down as one of the greatest players to play the game, but his health has been a huge red flag as of late. Since 2019, he has surpassed 100 games played only one time and he is on the wrong side of 30, contributing to his deflated value. But let’s be real, when Trout is on, he’s on. While he may not steal as many bases or hit as many home runs as he has in the past, the guy gets on base – usually with an extra base hit. If you’ve seen Moneyball, you know how important this is. Trout finds a way to get on base and that’s really all you can ask for.
Worst Picks
It’s funny because I look back at the draft board and see where all my worst picks are coming from, and the majority is from a singular team. This team had the 12th pick of the draft which guaranteed he had back-to-back selections throughout (unless he traded). People either love or hate this spot, but I can say for certain that this guy loved it. However, I don’t know how much his team loved it.
With the 12th and 13th overall pick, Matt Olson and Elly De La Cruz were selected. Doesn’t seem too bad, right? Olson is the beacon of consistency at first base where he hasn’t missed a single game the past two years (his two seasons in Atlanta). In those two years he has slugged 88 homeruns and drove in 232 RBIs. The guy is an absolute stud on paper. However, taking Olson with the 12th overall pick over the likes of Yordan Alvarez, Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, and Rafael Devers, just to name a few, isn’t a good strategy.
Heck, the same can be said for Elly De La Cruz but with even more players. EDLC is like Oneil Cruz, just younger. They are both similar in play style, size, arm strength, hitting, and just about everything else. They are electric on the field and have the potential to be true superstars if they can put it all together. The problem is putting it all together. Elly soared through the minors and debuted for a Cincinnati Reds team that injected some youth (finally) into their team. He started off hot but tailed off towards the end of the season. He’s a natural left-handed hitter but will switch to the right side and that’s where we see his numbers drop. De La Cruz has all of the potential in the world, but it feels like he’ll have to commit to one side of the plate if he wants to join the ranks of the elites.
24 picks after the aforementioned De La Cruz, Adley Rutschman was selected with the 1st pick of the 4th round. Don’t get me wrong, I absolutely love De La Cruz and Adley, but this young man was taken a full three rounds before another catcher was selected. His metrics aren’t bad as he’s never had below a .800 OPS and strikes out at a low rate, but the value is what is hurting this selection. Guys like Randy Arozarena, Adolis Garcia, Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, and a whole lot of top rookies were selected after this pick. While you won’t have to worry about the catcher position for the rest of his career, this felt like a bit of a reach for me.
My biggest qualm with this entire draft happened, again, for one team in four consecutive rounds. Not one, two, or three relief pitchers were selected in a row, but four were. That’s right, four. In consecutive rounds. The head-scratching that was happening when these picks were made was downright hysterical. In this league, you can start three relief pitchers but saves and holds are combined. This makes setup guys more valuable and closers just a bit less valuable. This guy went all in on his relief pitchers and while he did come way with some of the league’s best, the value at other positions was seriously missed out on. The good news for him, though, is that no one is going to be him in the SVH category this year.
