Evaluating Mid-Tier Wide Receivers: Who Will Have the Breakout Season?

Evaluating Mid-Tier Wide Receivers

In fantasy football, while early-round wide receivers typically offer established production, later-round picks bring the potential for league-winning upside. These wideouts often present higher variability in their usage and efficiency, making them intriguing options for savvy managers. Although top-tier receivers enjoy consistent roles, later-round players’ opportunities fluctuate due to evolving team dynamics, injuries, or depth chart changes. Yet, this uncertainty also presents the chance to discover hidden gems—receivers who can provide tremendous value for those willing to take a calculated risk. As they step into larger roles or benefit from improved offensive situations, these players are poised for breakout performances that can exceed their draft value.

Building on last week’s article, Evaluating Early Round Wide Receivers Using Advanced Metrics, I once again use key metrics—Yards Per Route Run (YPRR), Yards After Catch (YAC), True Catch Rate, and Target Separation—to assess wide receiver efficiency and playmaking potential. For this analysis, I’ve focused on 18 wide receivers typically drafted in rounds five through nine in PPR Best Ball Tournaments, excluding rookies. By applying advanced metrics alongside qualitative insights, the goal is to identify breakout candidates who could significantly outperform their draft position and offer hidden value in later rounds.

To begin, here is a list of the receivers alphabetized by first name.

Key

• • Tar – Targets
  • REC – Receptions
  • REC YD – Receiving Yards
  • REC TD – Receiving TDs
  • Tar SEP – Target Separation

• True Catch Rate
• YPRec – Yards Per Reception
• YPTarget – Yards Per Target
• YP Route – Run Yards Per Route Run
• YAC – Yards After Catch

The Interplay Between YPRR and YAC

The interplay between YPRR and YAC provides valuable insights into how wide receivers contribute to their offenses. YPRR measures receivers’ efficiency in gaining yards on each route, indicating their ability to get open and secure targets. YAC, on the other hand, captures the receiver’s ability to create extra yardage after making the catch. When a receiver excels in both areas, they present a dual threat to defenses: They can separate from coverage, make themselves available for targets, and extend plays once the ball is in their hands.

Rashee Rice from Kansas City exemplifies this balance, posting a strong YPRR of 2.5 and an impressive 653 YAC. His ability to maximize yardage on each route while consistently adding more after the catch underscores his versatility as a precise route runner and a dynamic playmaker. Rice’s combination of metrics suggests that he can excel in various offensive situations—whether he’s gaining yards downfield or turning shorter passes into significant gains. Keenan Allen also stands out with a YPRR of 2.5 and 396 YAC, positioning himself as a reliable target and playmaker. In his first season with the Chicago Bears, Allen will catch passes from rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. While it remains to be seen how quickly they can build a rapport, Allen’s experience and consistency should make him a steady presence in Chicago’s passing game, offering Williams a reliable option as he transitions to the NFL.

Other receivers demonstrate how YPRR and YAC can work together or independently to create value. DeAndre Hopkins continues to produce with a YPRR of 2.2 and 223 YAC, showing his efficiency in route running and ability to gain yards even in contested situations. Meanwhile, Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s relatively modest YPRR of 1.3 is counterbalanced by his 366 YAC, indicating that while he may not gain as many yards on each route, his strength lies in his ability to generate yardage after securing the ball. Understanding this interplay between YPRR and YAC allows fantasy managers to pinpoint receivers who can contribute across various offensive schemes, particularly those who can turn targets into explosive gains.

True Catch Rate: Measuring Reliability

True Catch Rate is a key indicator of a wide receiver’s dependability, measuring the percentage of passes caught relative to catchable targets. This advanced metric offers a clearer picture of reliability than standard catch rates, which don’t account for inaccurate throws. In fantasy football, particularly in Points Per Reception (PPR) formats, a receiver with a high True Catch Rate is invaluable. They are not just targeted but are making the most of those opportunities by converting catchable passes into receptions, often leading to consistent fantasy points even if they aren’t the primary deep threat.

Among the standout performers in this metric is veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen, who boasts an impressive True Catch Rate of 94.7%. Despite transitioning to a new team with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams in Chicago, Allen’s historically reliable hands suggest he will be a trusted target as Williams adjusts to the NFL. In high-pressure situations, rookie quarterbacks often seek out their most reliable receivers, and Allen’s precision in route running, combined with his nearly automatic conversion of catchable targets, sets him up as a potential safety net in Chicago’s offense. Allen’s ability to turn almost every catchable target into a reception could provide a steady stream of points, particularly in early-season games as Williams builds confidence.

Other reliable receivers also highlight the importance of True Catch Rate. Despite a YAC of only 260 yards, Curtis Samuel maintains a high True Catch Rate, demonstrating his dependability, particularly in contested catch situations. This reliability makes Samuel a consistent fantasy producer even when his total yardage is not as high as some of his peers. Meanwhile, Christian Watson in Green Bay brings explosiveness with deep-play potential, but his above-average True Catch Rate ensures he maximizes his impact. Watson’s combination of athleticism and reliability gives him the upside of a big-play receiver who can still be counted on for consistent receptions—valuable traits for any fantasy roster.

Target Separation: Creating Space

Target Separation measures the distance a receiver creates between themselves and the nearest defender at the time of the catch. This metric highlights a receiver’s ability to get open through crisp route running, agility, or sheer speed, which often results in easier completions for the quarterback. Receivers who excel in Target Separation consistently create favorable opportunities, making them dependable assets in fantasy football.

Keenan Allen continues to be a standout in this regard. In 2023, Allen maintained a Target Separation of 2.0 yards per route, demonstrating his expertise in creating space even against tight coverage. Allen’s precision and intelligence as a route runner enable him to get open frequently, which has been a defining feature of his game throughout his career. His consistently creating separation provides his quarterbacks with safer, higher-percentage throws, making him a reliable fantasy option, particularly in PPR formats, where volume and catch rates matter most.

Veteran Tyler Lockett is another receiver who thrives on Target Separation. His ability to create space on short and intermediate routes allows him to be a consistent presence in Seattle’s offense. Despite the rise of younger talents like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Lockett’s sharp route running and strong connection with quarterback Geno Smith help him remain a valuable asset. His knack for gaining separation ensures he will still be targeted frequently, maintaining his relevance in the offense.

Veterans and Breakout Candidates: A Mix of Consistency and Upside

Veteran wide receivers often offer a level of consistency that fantasy managers crave, particularly in later rounds. Players like Keenan Allen and Tyler Lockett fit this mold perfectly, providing a stable floor weekly. Allen, for example, has long been known for his precise route running and reliability, demonstrated by his high Target Separation of 2.0. This ability to create space has made him a go-to option for multiple quarterbacks over the years, ensuring that Allen remains a high-volume target, particularly in PPR formats. Lockett, on the other hand, continues to deliver steady production in Seattle. Despite the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a threat for more snaps, Lockett’s rapport with Geno Smith and knack for creating separation downfield ensures that he remains a reliable option, even as his role shifts within the offense.

In contrast, breakout candidates like Jordan Addison and Jaxon Smith-Njigba represent the upside in later rounds, combining youth and emerging opportunity. Addison’s ability to generate strong Target Separation, even with potential midseason interruptions, makes him a valuable asset for fantasy managers looking to capitalize on a player poised to step into a more prominent role. Smith-Njigba similarly benefits from the aging Tyler Lockett, potentially carving out a larger share of targets in the Seattle offense. These players exemplify the potential to outperform their draft position based on their growing roles and developing skills.

Playmakers: Ridley and Watson

Calvin Ridley and Christian Watson are elite playmakers offering significant upside due to their explosiveness and big-play potential. Ridley’s transition to the Tennessee Titans places him in a prime position to benefit from a more pass-heavy approach, especially with Derrick Henry no longer commanding the offense. Ridley has the chance to emerge as the clear WR1 for the Titans, particularly with the injury concerns surrounding DeAndre Hopkins. Ridley’s ability to stretch the field and turn deep targets into long gains could make him a steal in the mid-rounds, especially with gunslinging quarterback Will Levis, who will likely lean on him as a primary target.

Similarly, Watson remains a high-ceiling player for the Green Bay Packers, though his path to consistent production comes with challenges. Watson’s deep-threat capability is clear from his rookie season, and although injuries slowed his sophomore campaign, he enters 2024 poised to play a larger role in Green Bay’s offense with Jordan Love under center. However, with target competition from Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks, Watson’s success will depend on his ability to continue creating explosive plays. Still, both Ridley and Watson offer fantasy managers game-changing potential, particularly in matchups where deep shots can tilt the balance in favor of those bold enough to draft them.

Mid-Round Veterans: Sutton and McLaurin

Courtland Sutton and Terry McLaurin represent the veteran presence that brings versatility and toughness to their respective teams. Both players have carved out roles as their team’s WR1, and while they may not carry the same explosive upside as younger, flashier receivers, they offer dependable production. Sutton, in particular, benefitted from a rebound year in 2023 under head coach Sean Payton. His connection with rookie quarterback Bo Nix could lead to more short-yardage targets, making him a valuable pick in PPR formats. Though Nix may lack the deep-ball accuracy to fully unlock Sutton’s long-range potential, Sutton’s ability to win contested catches ensures he will remain a key red-zone target (if they can get there?).

McLaurin, meanwhile, continues to be the cornerstone of Washington’s receiving corps. Despite uncertainty at the quarterback position, McLaurin’s reliability as a deep threat pairs well with the skill set of Jayden Daniels, Washington’s new quarterback with the arm to go deep. Should they develop chemistry early in the season, McLaurin could see an uptick in deep targets and big plays. Both Sutton and McLaurin provide a stable floor and the potential for significant upside, particularly if their teams’ new quarterbacks excel at the position.

Methodology and Top Performers

I used a comprehensive scoring system to evaluate the wide receivers using the advanced metrics previously discussed. This system incorporates four key metrics: Yards Per Route Run (YPRR), Yards After Catch (YAC), True Catch Rate, and Target Separation to gauge each wide receiver’s efficiency and playmaking potential. To ensure comparability across these diverse metrics, I calculated z-scores for each, standardizing the values to allow for meaningful comparisons on different scales.

The overall score for each receiver was then determined by averaging these z-scores, providing a balanced view of their performance across all four metrics. This approach helps identify receivers who excel in multiple areas rather than just standing out in one or two categories, offering a more holistic evaluation of their potential contributions.

Top Performers and Interesting Connections

The analysis revealed some fascinating insights into the current wide receiver landscape. Leading the group is Rashee Rice from the Kansas City Chiefs, with an impressive overall score of 1.64. Rice’s standout YAC of 653 yards and his strong YPRR of 2.5 underscore his dual-threat capability, as he efficiently gains yardage on his routes while excelling at creating extra yardage after the catch.

Keenan Allen also performed admirably, earning an overall score of 1.11. His True Catch Rate of 94.7% exemplifies his reliability, and his solid YPRR of 2.5 reflects his efficiency as a target. Allen’s consistency across all metrics reinforces his status as a dependable and productive option in PPR formats.

Another noteworthy observation is the presence of two Green Bay Packers receivers in the top ten: Jayden Reed and Christian Watson. Green Bay’s strong passing game has allowed these receivers to shine across various advanced metrics. As Jordan Love steps into his second year as a starter, the question is whether he can elevate multiple receivers into consistent fantasy relevance.

Visual Analysis

Here are two visual representations of the data to further illustrate these findings and provide a more intuitive understanding of how these receivers compare across metrics.

Below is a heatmap that displays each metric’s z-scores of the top 10 wide receivers. This visualization allows us to quickly identify areas of strength and potential improvement for each player, as well as compare performances across the group.

Below the heatmap, you’ll find a scatter plot that focuses on the relationship between Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) and Yards After Catch (YAC). This plot helps us visualize how receivers balance their ability to gain yards during their routes with their skill in accumulating additional yardage after catching the ball.

Let’s take a closer look at these visualizations to gain deeper insights into the performance of these top wide receivers:

This heatmap provides a color-coded representation of each receiver’s performance across the four key metrics. Darker colors indicate higher z-scores, meaning better performance relative to the group. This visualization allows us to quickly identify standout performances and areas of strength for each receiver.

The scatter plot shows the relationship between YPRR and YAC for all receivers in the dataset. Each point represents a receiver, and their position on the plot indicates their performance in these two metrics. This visualization helps us identify receivers who excel in both areas and those who might be specialists in one aspect or the other.

Comprehensive Rankings Based on Spreadsheet Data

1. Rashee Rice, KC (Overall Score: 1.64)
   • YPRR: 2.5, YAC: 653, True Catch Rate: 88.8%, Target Separation: 2.5
   • Rice excels across all metrics, particularly in YAC and Target Separation, suggesting he’s a dynamic playmaker who can create space and generate yards after the catch.
2. Keenan Allen, LAC (Overall Score: 1.11)
   • YPRR: 2.5, YAC: 396, True Catch Rate: 94.7%, Target Separation: 2.0
   • Allen’s high YPRR and True Catch Rate demonstrate his efficiency and reliability as a target.  He’ll make a great target for Williams.
3. Jayden Reed, GB (Overall Score: 0.50)
   • YPRR: 2.0, YAC: 335, True Catch Rate: 90.1%, Target Separation: 2.1
   • Reed shows promise with a balanced profile, particularly excelling in Target Separation, which could make him a valuable asset in Green Bay’s offense.  My only worry is Reed’s target competition.
4. Mike Williams, LAC (Overall Score: 0.43)
   • YPRR: 2.5, YAC: 108, True Catch Rate: 100%, Target Separation: 1.4
   • Williams’ perfect True Catch Rate stands out, indicating exceptional reliability when targeted, though his lower YAC suggests he’s more of a possession receiver.
5. Khalil Shakir, BUF (Overall Score: 0.29)
   • YPRR: 1.9, YAC: 282, True Catch Rate: 90.7%, Target Separation: 2.0
   • Shakir’s solid performance across all metrics suggests he could be a reliable and versatile option in Buffalo’s offense.  Will he be Josh Allen’s new # 1?
6. Chris Godwin, TB (Overall Score: 0.24)
   • YPRR: 1.8, YAC: 385, True Catch Rate: 91.2%, Target Separation: 1.7
   • Godwin’s balanced profile, particularly his YAC and True Catch Rate, underscores his versatility and reliability in Tampa Bay’s passing game.
7. Curtis Samuel, WAS (Overall Score: 0.23)
   • YPRR: 1.5, YAC: 260, True Catch Rate: 96.9%, Target Separation: 1.9
   • Samuel’s standout True Catch Rate suggests he’s a dependable target, while his solid Target Separation indicates an ability to get open consistently.
8. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Overall Score: 0.15)
   • YPRR: 1.3, YAC: 366, True Catch Rate: 88.7%, Target Separation: 2.3
   • Smith-Njigba’s high Target Separation and YAC suggest he could be a dynamic playmaker for Seattle, with room for improvement in YPRR.
9. Jakobi Meyers, LV (Overall Score: -0.05)
   • YPRR: 1.6, YAC: 242, True Catch Rate: 93.4%, Target Separation: 1.7
   • Meyers’ high True Catch Rate indicates reliability, though his lower YPRR and YAC suggest he might be more of a possession receiver.
10. Terry McLaurin, WAS (Overall Score: -0.08)
    • YPRR: 1.6, YAC: 350, True Catch Rate: 92.9%, Target Separation: 1.4
    • McLaurin’s solid True Catch Rate and YAC demonstrate his reliability and ability to make plays after the catch, though his lower Target Separation might indicate he relies more on his catching ability than creating separation.
11. Diontae Johnson, PIT (Overall Score: -0.09)
    • YPRR: 2.0, YAC: 261, True Catch Rate: 87.9%, Target Separation: 1.6
    • Johnson’s strong YPRR suggests efficiency in route running, but his lower Target Separation indicates potential room for improvement in creating space.
12. Jordan Addison, MIN (Overall Score: -0.15)
    • YPRR: 1.6, YAC: 262, True Catch Rate: 92.1%, Target Separation: 1.6
    • Addison shows promise with a balanced profile, particularly in True Catch Rate, suggesting reliability as a target for the Vikings.
13. Tyler Lockett, SEA (Overall Score: -0.29)
    • YPRR: 1.6, YAC: 220, True Catch Rate: 90.8%, Target Separation: 1.6
    • Lockett’s consistent performance across metrics indicates reliability, though he may lack the standout qualities seen in higher-ranked receivers.
14. DeAndre Hopkins, TEN (Overall Score: -0.63)
    • YPRR: 2.2, YAC: 223, True Catch Rate: 81.5%, Target Separation: 1.2
    • Hopkins’ strong YPRR is offset by lower scores in other metrics, particularly Target Separation, suggesting he may rely more on his catching ability than creating space.
15. Jameson Williams, DET (Overall Score: -0.77)
    • YPRR: 1.5, YAC: 104, True Catch Rate: 85.7%, Target Separation: 1.7
    • Williams’ lower YAC and True Catch Rate indicate potential areas for growth, though his Target Separation shows promise.
16. Calvin Ridley, JAX (Overall Score: -0.77)
    • YPRR: 1.6, YAC: 194, True Catch Rate: 86.4%, Target Separation: 1.3
    • Ridley’s lower metrics scores suggest he may have needed time to readjust to the game.  Ridley did have a spate of bad luck in 2024.  He could be in line for a rebound year in Tennessee.
17. Christian Watson, GB (Overall Score: -0.80)
    • YPRR: 1.6, YAC: 105, True Catch Rate: 90.3%, Target Separation: 1.2
    • Watson’s high True Catch Rate is a positive, but his lower YAC and Target Separation suggest he may need to work on creating more opportunities after the catch.
18. Courtland Sutton, DEN (Overall Score: -0.97)
    • YPRR: 1.7, YAC: 156, True Catch Rate: 79.7%, Target Separation: 1.5
    • Sutton’s lower scores across metrics, particularly in True Catch Rate, indicate potential areas for improvement in Denver’s offense.

This ranking provides a comprehensive view of these receivers’ performances based on advanced metrics. It’s important to note that while these metrics offer valuable insights, they should be considered alongside traditional stats, game film analysis, and other factors such as team dynamics and offensive schemes when making final evaluations or fantasy football decisions. Additionally, the data is limited to the 2023 NFL season, which may introduce a bias by not accounting for changes in player performance, team strategies, or external factors in subsequent seasons.  Therefore, it’s crucial to integrate this analysis with ongoing observations and updates to maintain a well-rounded perspective.