Marquise (Hollywood) Brown Fantasy 2024
Last season, fantasy managers scrambled to figure out who the wide receiver to own was in Kansas City. The entire offense, including Patrick Mahomes, had a disappointing regular season but was able to put it together to win the Super Bowl. Late in the season, Rashee Rice came on strong, looking like the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver in this offense. However, with Rice potentially facing a suspension and some new pieces joining the Chiefs’ offense, anything could happen in 2024. Enter Marquise (Hollywood) Brown. At 27 years old, Brown still has the potential to be one of the most explosive and exciting wide receivers in the NFL. But after spending the first three seasons of his career in Baltimore and the last two in Arizona, there are certainly question marks surrounding his role in his new offense. Still, the Chiefs have something that Brown has never had in his career: Patrick Mahomes. Let’s look at Brown’s potential and what we can realistically expect from him in his first season in Kansas City.
#Chiefs WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is expected to miss four to six weeks with the sternoclavicular injury he suffered, per multiple sources. Opening night is three weeks from this Thursday night.
KC opens up at home vs Baltimore and then Cincinnati. pic.twitter.com/0lUx5mDfUP
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) August 13, 2024
When discussing Brown, the first thing we have to address is his recent injury. Brown suffered a dislocation of the sternoclavicular shoulder joint in the Chiefs’ preseason opener and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks, which almost certainly means he’ll miss Week 1. If his recovery timeline ends up closer to six weeks he could even be a candidate to start the season on IR. Still, Brown current ADP is #88 overall and #38 among wide receivers in PPR formats. This puts him around the middle of the eighth round. When healthy, Brown will have plenty of opportunities to produce. But there are a lot of mouths to feed to Kansas City, and if he misses several regular season games, Brown could be starting behind the eight-ball and find it hard to catch up to the other offensive weapons, such as Travis Kelce, Isaiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice, and rookie Xavier Worthy. Still, regarding health, Brown should have opportunities to produce. The issue is there’s no way to know exactly when he’ll return to the field or how many opportunities there will be. No wide receiver has had seven or more targets per game in the two seasons since Tyreek Hill has been off the team. That includes Rice’s late-season emergence as the go-to guy. If Rice isn’t available at any point this season, then Brown may be able to hit that mark, but it could be difficult as long as everyone is healthy and available. But at #91st overall there is not much risk to picking him with a “wait-and-see” approach. So he is already a decent value, but if the injury continues to push him down draft boards, he could become an incredible value in later rounds.
On the downside, Brown will have to learn another new system and offense, which will be even more difficult now that he will miss time. Without important reps, developing chemistry and trust with Mahomes could take more time than we would’ve hoped. Brown also has a history of difficulty staying on the field. He does seem to bounce back quickly from his injuries, but missing time is not anything new for Brown. Also, while having many weapons to draw attention away from Brown could create more upside chances for him to produce, it can be a headache for fantasy managers as we try to figure out who will come through from week to week. Brown should undoubtedly have his monster games, but predicting when those will happen may be difficult. So there is a decent amount of risk with Brown.
As WR37 in drafts, Brown is being drafted as a high-end WR4 in 12-team leagues. Normally, I would say that is way too low for a player who, if things fall right, has the upside to finish at least as a WR2. But with the injury and the uncertainty of when we’ll see him and what his role in the offense will be, that ADP makes sense. Still, Brown could be one of those players whose second half of the season causes us all to look back on and agree we were all too low on. Of course, the range of outcomes for Brown is wide. But when you’re choosing in the seventh or eighth round, there are very few “sure things,” so if you want to bet on a player who could be the top wide receiver for the best QB in the league, I can’t argue too much against it. Just be aware of the risks that come along with it.
