Mid-March ADP Risers for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
The peak of draft season is officially here with opening day coming next week. As spring training draws to an end and battles for starting roster spots are being won and lost, the average draft position of some players is dramatically shifting. The ADP shown in draft rooms won’t have time to adjust to show these new going rates accurately, so it’s important to know the most recent ADP risers to make sure you get them on your team on draft day. Here are some players who have seen their ADP drastically climb in the past week compared to the past month.
Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers
- Past Week NFBC ADP: 84 (+39 Spots)
I wrote about Langford earlier this offseason as one of the ten rookies worth drafting, noting that his ADP could shoot up significantly if he crushed the ball in spring training. That is exactly what happened, as he is currently slashing .378/.442/.756 with 5 home runs in 52 plate appearances. He has been arguably the most dominant hitter in all of spring training, making it much harder for the Rangers to justify starting him in the minor leagues. His recent ADP sees him being drafted in the 8th round as the 21st outfielder off the board, which is a far cry from where he was going in drafts a month ago. If he gets pushed up any higher than the 7th/8th rounds I would have a hard time taking him, unless there is official confirmation that he is making the team. If he does crack the opening-day roster, a 20/20 season seems like a bare minimum with upside for much more. This is a situation to monitor right up until your draft since it wouldn’t be the first time a team starts a player in the minors even though they are clearly ready for a promotion.
Gavin Stone, SP, Dodgers
- Past Week NFBC ADP: 302 (+80 Spots)
Gavin Stone has officially won the Dodgers’ 5th rotation spot, catapulting him into standard-league relevance after having a previous ADP of close to 400. He had a very limited and disappointed 2023, posting a 9.00 ERA in 31 innings, but he has looked promising this spring. He had 9 strikeouts and 1 walk over 9.2 innings leading up to an exhibition outing against the Korean national team where he struck out eight of the eleven batters he faced. This type of production is what we were used to seeing from him in the minor leagues where he struck out 120 in 100.2 innings last season. All of the hype has centered around his teammate Bobby Miller, who is being drafted as a top 25 SP this season, but going into last season many people were more excited about Stone. He is a great late-round draft choice to round out your rotation, and he possesses the upside to be a true difference-maker for fantasy.
Joel Payamps and Abner Uribe, RP, Brewers
- Past Week NFBC ADP: 291 (+167 Spots) and 338 (+124 Spots)
With Devin Williams set to miss 3 months with stress fractures in his back, Payamps and Uribe are the two favorites for taking over the closing job. The Brewers manager has stated that he doesn’t plan to name a closer anytime soon, so it may be a mix of Payamps, Uribe, and Trevor Megill for saves to start the season. Payamps pitched 70.2 innings in 2023 with a 2.55 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 77 strikeouts, and 17 walks, which are numbers that would make him a very good closer for fantasy. Uribe was even more dominant after making his debut in July, pitching 30.2 innings with a 1.76 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 39 strikeouts, and 20 walks. He has control issues at times, but if he can limit his walks he has the most upside out of anyone in the Brewers’ bullpen. Both Payamps and Uribe are worth late-round picks in leagues where saves are scarce to see which one of them ultimately ends up with the bulk of the save opportunities.
Jonathan India and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Infielders, Reds
- Past Week NBC ADP: 244 (+37 Spots) and 127 (+20 Spots)
Noelvi Marte’s 80-game PED suspension and TJ Friedl’s broken wrist have turned a crowded Reds lineup into a pretty straightforward one. India will now get the chance to be the team’s primary DH, and Encarnacion-Strand will get the bulk of the 1B starts. India has dealt with many injuries over the past couple of seasons and hasn’t been able to produce like he did when he won Rookie of the Year in 2021, but he is still only 27 years old. He had a poor .244 batting average last season, but sneakily hit 17 home runs and stole 14 bases in 119 games. His OBP was still a solid .338, so there is hope for a bounce-back season for him in 2024. He is a great MI option later in drafts, especially in leagues that reward OBP. Encarnacion-Strand also disappointed a bit last season compared to his massive hype as a prospect, but hitting .270 with 13 home runs in 63 games during your first taste of the majors isn’t something to look down on. With a full offseason under his belt and secured playing time, I expect him to take a step forward in his sophomore season, making him an excellent low-end 1B option if you wait to draft the position.
Dylan Cease, SP, Padres
- Past Week NFBC ADP: 88 (+22 Spots)
Dylan Cease was recently traded to the Padres for Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, Steven Wilson, and Samuel Zavala. Cease is coming off of a 2023 season where he took a significant step back, posting a 4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 214 strikeouts, and 79 walks over 177 innings. He is still a strikeout machine but comes at the risk of ruining your ratios. I’m not convinced that Cease is much better than his performance last season, but moving from the White Sox to the Padres will certainly make things easier for him. His home park will now be pitcher-friendly Petco Park, and he will no longer have one of the worst defenses in the league playing behind him. Those two things should help him improve on his .330 BABIP from last season, so if he can limit the hard contact he could take a step forward closer to his 2022 production that almost won him a Cy Young Award. Cease is a solid pitcher to target in the SP20-SP25 range, especially if you need strikeouts.
