Fantasy Baseball Trade Targets for Week 15
Week 15 is here, marking the final week before the All-Star break. We’ve seen players in the past turn their seasons around after taking time off, but there are just as many examples of players who crash and burn after the halfway point. If you can identify those players before it happens and take advantage of it on the trade market, you’ll be setting up your team for success. With that in mind, here are five players you should be looking to trade for or trade away over the coming weeks.
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Buy-Low Candidates
Gavin Williams, SP, Guardians
Gavin Williams finally returned from the elbow injury that had sidelined him all season to allow five runs in four innings against the White Sox. Getting hit around by the worst team in baseball certainly isn’t what fantasy managers were expecting when they stashed him on their bench all year long, but it may have created a good buying opportunity on the trade market. At the end of the day, it was only one start, and, understandably, he had some rust to shake off. What’s more important is what he did last season, because if he can repeat his performance or even improve on it for this season, he could be one of the breakout pitchers of the second half. In 16 starts in 2023, he posted a 3.29 ERA with 81 strikeouts in 82 innings. People had high expectations for the 24-year-old coming into this season, and he was being taken within the top 40 starting pitchers in many drafts. The Guardians have a great reputation for developing young pitchers, and it’s not too late for Williams to be the next example of that. He’s lined up for two starts in week 15 with two good matchups against the Tigers and Rays, so this might be your last chance to get him for cheap on the trade market.
Oneil Cruz, SS, Pirates
It’s easy to see that Oneil Cruz has some of the most upside in the major leagues, but it has also been clear why he hasn’t capitalized on that upside yet. He has struck out 32.7% of the time this season, which has contributed to a slash line of just .243/.300/.432 so far this year. However, his expected batting average is a much nicer looking .269, and his expected slugging percentage is up at .496. The raw power is as tantalizing as ever, with his 100th percentile bat speed of 78.1 mph producing a 95.4 mph average exit velocity, 17.9% barrel rate, and 53.8% hard-hit rate that all rank in the top four percent of the league or better. The biggest thing holding him back is his tendency to strike out, but he has actually been improving in that regard throughout the season. After beginning the season with a horrible 37.2% strikeout rate in March and April, he cut that down to 30.9% in May and then 28.4% in June. The improvement is a positive sign because if Cruz can put it all together he would be a true fantasy superstar. I’m not convinced he’s ready to make the jump to stardom in 2024, but I do think he will have a much better second half than the first half. He is a perfect trade target if you’re weak at shortstop.
Ha-Seong Kim, 2B/3B/SS, Padres
Ha-Seong Kim has slowed down after a hot start but remains very useful for fantasy. His 17 stolen bases tie him for the 16th most in the majors, and that type of speed is very valuable in fantasy, especially when the player doesn’t kill you in every other category. While his current slash line of .229/.331/.384 may not look the best, there are signs that improvement may be coming. His expected batting average is a much more palatable .254, and while his .331 OBP isn’t bad, his elite plate discipline should lead to a better outcome. He has a 15.7% strikeout rate (85th percentile) compared to a 12.9% walk rate (95th percentile). His 17.7% chase rate and 16.2% whiff rate are also both at elite levels. With some slightly better batted ball luck, Kim could be an on-base machine, which in turn would lead to even more runs and stolen bases. I don’t think he will take an astronomical leap in the second half, but I do think he represents the best value currently of any stolen base specialist. His triple eligibility at second base, third base, and shortstop will allow him to fit into your lineup easily, so if your team needs steals, I would look into acquiring him.
Sell-High Candidates
Steven Kwan, OF, Guardians
Steven Kwan has been sensational this season, slashing .364/.419/.538 with 52 R, 9 HR, 27 RBI, and 4 SB through 62 games. Everyone has come to expect a good batting average and a decent amount of steals from Kwan, but the power surge is something that no one saw coming. His season-high for homers coming into this year was 6 in 2022, so adding power to his skillset has propelled him to be one of the best players in fantasy. The bad news is that it doesn’t look to be sustainable. He is one of the biggest overperformers in the league based on expected stats, with his xSLG of .425 making him look like a very average power bat. His hard-hit rate of 23.2% and barrel rate of 2.2% make him look even worse, both ranking in the bottom five percent of the league. Don’t get me wrong, I still think Kwan is a very good player. Even assuming average power instead of what he has done so far, that is still a massive step forward compared to previous years. He would still be a clear top-20 outfielder providing elite production in three of the five categories while not killing you in home runs and RBI. There’s no harm in holding on to Kwan, but your window to trade him at the value of a top-10 outfielder will be closing soon.
Tanner Houck, SP, Red Sox
Tanner Houck’s season stats still look great, and he was just named to the AL All-Star team. However, he’s had a rough go of things as of late. In his most recent start against the Yankees, he lasted only 3.1 innings, giving up three runs (one earned) on two hits and four walks. In his start before that one, he got shelled for seven earned runs on nine hits through 4.1 innings against the Padres. You could chalk it up to just two bad starts, but his expected ERA of 3.78 (compared to his actual ERA of 2.68) shows that he may have gotten lucky throughout the first half of the season. Some of that luck can be seen when looking at his home run rate. Despite having a pretty bad hard-hit rate of 43.8% (15th percentile) and a 90.2 mph average exit velocity (19th percentile), he had given up only two home runs all season before his start against the Padres where he allowed three in one game. His 23.2% strikeout rate is also just average, with his 54.6% ground ball being largely responsible for limiting the damage against him. That’s not to say that all ground ball pitchers are bad, but they are usually prone to more blow-up starts throughout the season, due to the added variance of having so many balls put into play. I think Houck has been lucky as a whole and expect him to take a step back in the second half and be much more volatile. He has also already surpassed his career-high innings, so he will have to learn how to handle that extra workload as the season progresses.
