Fantasy Baseball Trade Targets For Week 8
Week 8 is upon us, and as always, it’s a great time to improve your team via the trade market. Players have settled in for the most part, as there aren’t as many ridiculously good or bad-looking stat lines that you see early on in the season due to a small sample size. Players I mentioned in previous weeks such as Logan Webb, Lars Nootbaar, and Nolan Gorman are all coming off of a great week, so here are five more players you should trade for or trade away as we head into the second half of May.
Buy-Low Candidates
Matt Olson, 1B, Braves
Yes, I know, I’m sure you have all read about Matt Olson as a buy-low candidate at some point this season. His underlying metrics look so good compared to his actual production that it seems too obvious to even write about, which is why I’ve held out from including him in this article for so long. However, we’re now a quarter of the way through the season and nothing has changed. I have Olson on a few of my teams and I’m starting to consider the possibility that it will be too little, too late. His eventual return to form won’t be enough to bring my team back from the dead. If those thoughts are creeping into my head, there’s a good chance the Olson owner in your league is thinking something similar. Of course, despite my worries, I am still going to trust his 94.4 mph average exit velocity (98th percentile), 56.5% hard-hit rate (97th percentile), and 15.1% barrel rate (92nd percentile). His .268 xBA and .492 xSLG overshadow his actual .225 BA and .397 SLG. He has three multi-hit games in his last five, so maybe this is finally where he turns the corner. Everything points to him being a top 3 first baseman for the rest of the season, so try to trade for him now while his owner may let their worries get the best of them.
Josh Lowe, OF, Rays
Josh Lowe returned from the injured list to make his season debut on May 6th and has since slashed .238/.304/.476 with two home runs in 11 games. His overall stat line will change drastically very quickly due to the small sample size, and I expect his slash line to be looking a lot better by this time next week. Over his past 7 games, he has collected 5 of his 6 extra-base hits and looks well on his way to repeating his 2023 performance where he batted .292 with 71 R, 20 HR, 83 RBI, and 32 SB. So far this season, he has a 50% hard-hit rate and a 42.9% sweet spot rate, so all signs point to more power coming. Lowe was a pretty polarizing player during draft season, with some touting him as a top-20 outfielder while others had him outside of their top 30. I was always on the top-20 side of that debate, but there’s a chance that your league mate who owns him wasn’t. Missing the first month of the season also didn’t help his value, so this is a great opportunity to get him at a discount before he breaks out.
Ryan Pepiot, SP, Rays
Ryan Pepiot had a successful bullpen session on Friday and could be back in the major league rotation sometime this week. He went on the injured list after being hit in the leg with a line drive on May 5th, so he doesn’t come with the same risk as a pitcher returning from an arm or muscle injury. Before the start where he suffered the injury, he was one of the most consistent pitchers in the league, earning a quality start in 4 of his 6 starts with a 3.68 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 41:11 K:BB through 36.2 innings. He has accomplished much of his success thanks to his elite fastball, which has a Stuff+ of 114 and a run value of 8, which ranks in the top 3 percent of the league. His xERA of 2.92 even shows that he has gotten unlucky to begin the year. Pepiot looks like a surefire top-35 SP when healthy, so now is your last chance to send an offer before he is back and producing again.
Sell-High Candidates
Jazz Chisholm, OF, Marlins
Jazz Chisholm has been very good to start the 2024 campaign, slashing .254/.330/.424 with 23 R, 6 HR, 24 RBI, and 8 SB. The power/speed threat is on a 150-game pace of a 20/25 season, which would be a career-high in both categories. His .330 OBP also represents a career-best, thanks to him cutting his strikeout rate from 30.8% to 24.4% and increasing his walk rate from 6.8% to 9.1%. However, the most ambitious part of his 150-game pace is his ability to play 150 games. The most games he has ever played in a season was 124 in 2021, and he has failed to top 100 in his previous two seasons. The fact that he plays for the Marlins, who are currently tanking, doesn’t help. He will struggle to gain consistent counting stats, and if he does get injured, the Marlins would have little incentive to rush him back. I do think Chisholm is a top-20 outfielder when healthy, but I would use this opportunity to exchange him for another outfielder or player in that same range who doesn’t pose as much risk. He will also be prone to cold streaks due to his high strikeout rate and mediocre quality of contact, so now is a great time to sell before he gets cold or injured.
Seth Lugo, SP, Royals
Seth Lugo is one of the most surprising breakouts of the season, posting a 1.79 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 58:13 K:BB through 65.1 innings. Nothing in his underlying metrics jumps out at you, making many people wonder how he is doing this. One of the largest contributors is his 90.1% LOB% which is the 4th-highest in the majors behind Shota Imanaga, Ronel Blanco, and Bryse Wilson, who have also been overperforming to varying degrees. It’s easier to get behind a guy like Imanaga, who has elite strikeout stuff, but Lugo’s 22.7% strikeout rate, 23.5% whiff rate, and 27.4% chase rate aren’t going to cut it long-term. His xERA is 3.53, but even that may be pushing it as a rest-of-season outlook. Put him on the trade block now before he crashes back down to earth.
