Fantasy Football Advanced Stats Week 5
The fantasy football stats we see show up on the box score and in our fantasy leagues result from many things. A player’s usage, opportunities, team context, and game script all affect what happens on the field. To that end, after a week’s worth of games, it is helpful to look deeper into the advanced statistics to see why certain things happen the way they did. Hopefully, this will help us better predict what will come in the future.
This weekly piece will examine several of the most interesting advanced stats from the previous slate of games. We will use them to determine whether what we saw in the box score is a signal or noise regarding what to expect in future weeks.
Let’s dive into the fourth week of games and see what we can learn.
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Jared Goff had 74% of his passing yards after the catch
Jared Goff basically threw a “perfect game” on Monday night when he went 18-for-18 against the Seahawks and passed for 292 yards and two touchdowns. And while that accomplishment is nothing to dismiss, it wasn’t like Goff was connecting on long bombs with his receivers all night. In fact, almost three-fourths of Goff’s passing yards came after the catch as his throws were largely safe ones underneath the coverage.
Goff’s average depth of target on Monday was just 4.3 yards, and that was last among all quarterbacks to play and attempt a pass on Sunday (35 of them). Does this signal a new way the Lions will approach their offense, giving up on the long passes to Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams in favor of short dump-offs to the receivers and running backs? Time will tell on this, but it did lead to 42 points, so why fix something that isn’t broken?
George Pickens piled up five red zone targets
With Justin Fields under center the last four weeks, George Pickens is starting to emerge as the downfield weapon that Steelers fans and fantasy football managers have wanted for a couple of seasons. Fields has been more accurate than ever before, and Pickens has become the beneficiary. Pickens had the sixth-most air yards in Week 4 and had 62.7% of his team’s air yards.
But what was most encouraging about this performance were the targets he got that were fewer than 20 yards. Specifically, his five red zone targets led all wide receivers on the week. Pickens getting that kind of work near the goal line could unlock a whole other level to his game and make him a fantasy star if some of those targets become touchdowns. He only caught two of those five targets for 19 yards and no scores this week, but eventually, those looks will turn into big fantasy points.
Dontayvion Wicks had 218 air yards
With Christian Watson leaving the game on Sunday early with an ankle injury, it became the Dontayvion Wicks show. He piled up 13 targets, five receptions, and two touchdowns. Some of the massive passing volume for the Packers came because they ended up in a 28-0 hole to start the game, but Wicks seems in line for a big role if Watson misses time with a high ankle sprain.
After Watson left the game, Wicks saw a spike in his time on the field. After 46% of the snaps played in Week 3, Wicks was up to 76% in Week 4. That’s the kind of playing time we can expect for Wicks considering how often the Packers run three wide receiver sets. Don’t expect another 13 targets and 218 air yards, but something around 8-10 targets and 125 air yards seems very reasonable.
Derrick Henry Had Four Goal-Line Rush Attempts and no Scores
After 199 rushing yards and three total touchdowns on Sunday night, it’s hard to fathom that Derrick Henry’s game could have been even bigger if some things broke his way. He did have a receiving touchdown from within the five-yard line, but his four rush attempts in that area accumulated negative three yards. Negative three!
That’s an uncharacteristic look for Henry who has been one of the most reliable players at the goal line for years. His rushing touchdowns came on long runs Sunday night, but somehow he whiffed completely on the short runs. Should we be worried? Absolutely not. Henry is showing that, even at age 30, he is still one of the most effective and dangerous rushers in the game. If things had broken his way on Sunday, we could have been talking about one of the best running back single-game performances of all time.
Elijah Higgins had an 85.2% route participation rate
Only Travis Kelce had a higher route participation rate among tight ends than Elijah Higgins. Who is Elijah Higgins, you might be asking? He is Trey McBride’s replacement while McBride is out with a concussion. There is still no clarity on whether or not McBride will be able to play in Week 5, so Higgins may get another opportunity for a big role. Higgins only came up with three targets in Week 4, but that game was quickly out of hand.
This week, Arizona is more than a touchdown underdog to San Francisco, so Kyler Murray is going to have to step up the offensive production and get his receivers involved. If McBride misses the game again, Higgins is a nice speculative add at the position for a team that might be throwing a lot to keep up with their divisional rival.
