Fantasy Football Sleepers Week 1

One of the fun parts of fantasy football involves finding fantasy sleepers. Each week, we’ll look at roster rates on Yahoo, roughly around 50% or below. As the season goes on, we’ll dig even deeper into the player pool and data since roster rates will jump as some sleepers become weekly starts and waiver wire pickups.

The plan for the weekly sleeper installment includes finding 1-2 players at each position that could warrant a starting spot in our fantasy lineups. For scoring, we’ll use PPR scoring and note any Superflex considerations as necessary. Finally, sleepers may have more fantasy viability in deeper leagues, or players managers may consider in their flex spots. Each week, we’ll look at some advanced data and metrics to identify weekly sleepers.

Quick Links for NFL Week 1

Quarterbacks

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. LAC

The new quarterback for the Washington Football Team, Ryan Fitzpatrick, sits just under the 50% roster rate for Yahoo leagues. Fitzpatrick faces the Chargers at home, and the Chargers allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position last year. We know the Chargers battled a few injuries last season. They lost top defenders for extended periods like Melvin Ingram, Chris Harris, and Derwin James.

The Fantasy Data Weekly Projections have Fitzpatrick as the 18th quarterback with 17.3 fantasy points on the backs of 266 passing yards, 1.6 passing touchdowns, and 15 rushing yards. If fantasy managers drafted Trey Lance or Justin Fields, look at rolling out Fitzpatrick as a Week 1 sleeper at quarterback. Fitzpatrick is an underrated quarterback who provided QB1 performances 12 times (50%) and QB2 performances six times (25%) over the past two seasons.

We also love that Fitzpatrick uses his legs at an advanced age with 16.2 (No. 13) rushing yards per game in 2019 and 16.8 rushing yards per game in 2020. Last season, Fitzpatrick would’ve ranked in front of Ryan Tannehill and Justin Herbert if he qualified. Thus, he’s the top sleeper quarterback in Week 1.

Tyrod Taylor vs. JAC

With the Texans announcing Tyrod Taylor as their starting quarterback for Week 1, it looks like a juicy matchup facing the Jaguars at home. Last season, the Jaguars allowed the third-most fantasy points to the quarterback position only ahead of the Falcons and Lions.

As noted in my article about fantasy sleepers on the Texans, I mentioned Taylor’s finishes when he started at quarterback from 2015-2017. Taylor ranked top-10 twice and 17th once in fantasy points per game during those three years. We know Taylor’s value relies heavily on the running game, which translates well for our fantasy game.

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Although Taylor projects more as a deep-league quarterback sleeper in Week 1, he’s also someone to scoop up Superflex leagues as a QB2. If we average Taylor’s rushing yards per game from 2015-2017, he would’ve ranked third behind Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray in rushing yards per game in 2020. Assuming some regression with age for Taylor, the Fantasy Data Week 1 Projections have him at 23.4 rushing yards, which puts him as QB22 on the week.

Running Backs

J.D. McKissic (RB – WFT) vs. LAC

No, J.D. McKissic likely won’t repeat the career-best season in 2020, where he hauled in 80 receptions on 110 targets. Before 2020, McKissic never earned more than 46 targets back in 2017 though he garnered 42 in 2019. With the dominant team defense that ranked 4th in points forced and 2nd in total yards allowed, it’s safe to wonder how much McKissic will see the field in the pass-catching satellite back role. It’s within the range of outcomes where Antonio Gibson earns more targets in the passing game that could eat into McKissic’s target share.

We note the concerns because McKissic’s profile comes with some risk. However, McKissic possesses a defined role in the Washington Football Team’s offense though it may depend on the game script. Overall, McKissic falls into the same category as James White, where they should provide a safe floor of hauling in 3-4 receptions for 30-40 yards with room for rushing opportunities. This Week 1 matchup projects as a close game, so it’s likely that WFT relies on McKissic in their two-minute offense.

Ty’Son Williams (RB – BAL) at LV

With season-ending injuries to J.K. Dobbins and Justice Hill, it clears the way for an undrafted back in Ty’Son Williams out of BYU. Williams comes in at 5-foot-11 and 220-pounds and a similar profile to Gus Edwards with the grinder-type role. As a bigger back, Williams boasts decent size-adjusted speed with a 104.5 (79th-percentile) Speed Score. He battled injuries in college, so don’t dismiss the lack of college production.

With the Ravens’ quality offensive line, Gus Edwards averaged 5.6 (No. 12) yards per touch and 4.8 (No. 7) True Yards Per Carry. True YPC is a metric that discounts rushing attempts greater than ten yards. Edwards should thank his offensive line with the 2nd ranked Run Blocking Efficiency at 74.0. Edwards ranked below average with 1.93 (No. 54) Yards Created Per Touch and an 18.3% (No. 38) Juke Rate.

All that said, Ty’Son Williams should fare decently with the team’s elite run blocking efficiency. Expect Williams to fill a role similar to Edwards last season where he fits better in non-PPR leagues since he might end up more touchdown-dependent than we would like. Also, the Raiders defense performed awful a year ago, allowing the 4th most fantasy points to the running back position.

Tests confirmed that Ravens’ RB Gus Edwards suffered a season-ending torn ACL at today’s practice, per source.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 10, 2021

Update: I wrote the analysis above before Thursday’s news that Gus Edwards tore his ACL. That said, Ty’Son Williams moves up the depth chart. He should assume the early-down rushing role with some efficiency given the Ravens’ Run Blocking Efficiency. However, the Ravens also added Trenton Cannon, Le’Veon Bell, and Devonta Freeman. The team added all three backs for depth, although they could eat into some opportunities from Williams if they perform well.

Wide Receivers

Elijah Moore (WR – NYJ) at CAR

With Jamison Crowder dealing with COVID, exciting rookie Elijah Moore looks ready to turn heads in Week 1. Corey Davis likely holds down the WR1 role for the Jets, but the target share is open for the next Jets’ receiver. Moore checked several boxes in his prospect profile with a 41.9% (85th-percentile) College Dominator, and a 36.7% (98th-percentile) College Target Share, and 19.4 (82nd-percentile) Breakout Age.

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With elite prospect metrics, Moore could explode as a fantasy sleeper in Week 1 and beyond. Sure, we have questions around how Zach Wilson will fare and the revamped Jets offense and coaching staff. In a fantasy game with variance, buy into the talent and lean into the uncertainty for Elijah Moore as a Week 1 sleeper. Moore’s hype keeps rising, so he likely won’t have much sleeper status moving forward.

Parris Campbell (WR – IND) vs. SEA

With T.Y. Hilton banged up, Parris Campbell could step up as a second receiver with Michael Pittman. A year ago, Campbell held some sleeper appeal, then he suffered a knee injury and led to missing almost the entire 2020 season. Part of the sleeper appeal in 2021 involves passing volume, as Campbell should earn a healthy target share in Week 1, giving him a safe PPR floor.

Don’t forget the second-round pick out of Ohio State came in with an explosive profile Campbell with a 117.2 (97th-percentile) Speed Score and 135.5 (97th-percentile) Burst Score. Pair that elite athleticism and speed with an 18.1 (100th-percentile) Breakout Age, and fantasy managers seem to forget about him in redraft leagues. If the Colts trail against the Seahawks, Campbell could haul in more than the projections of 3.5 receptions on just under five (4.9) targets and 42.4 receiving yards.

Update: Campbell practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday, but the Achilles issue shouldn’t keep him out. If he keeps having limited practices, then that adds more concern. On Thursday, the Colts listed Campbell as a full participant, so that’s a positive sign.

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett (TE – SEA) at IND

One of my favorite breakout tight ends in 2021 includes Gerald Everett. If we’re looking for the 2021 version of Logan Thomas that breaks out, look no further than Everett. He boasts above-average athleticism with a 103 (75th-percentile) Speed Score, 128.6 (93rd-percentile) Burst Score, and 11.32 (81st-percentile) Agility Score. Although the raw volume of targets may not rate highly, efficient pass-catchers often pair with efficient quarterbacks. Russell Wilson is one of the most efficient quarterbacks, evidenced by a 7.3 (No. 13) Adjusted Yards Per Attempt in 2020 and 8.0 (No. 8) Adjusted Y/A in 2019.

Add in the narrative with the former Rams’ passing coordinator Shane Waldron familiar with Everett, and he could hold sleeper appeal in Week 1 and beyond. However, the Colts have a solid defense that allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to the position last year. Although the matchup isn’t friendly, I still like Everett as a sleeper tight end for Week 1.

Zach Ertz (TE – PHI) at ATL

Although we expected Zach Ertz to land on another team by now, it looks like Ertz will still garner some snaps and targets in the passing game. Many hoped 2021 would look like Dallas Goedert SZN, but Goedert and Ertz head into Week 1 with a fantasy-friendly matchup.

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Last season the Falcons allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to the position, and Jalen Hurts will lead the Eagles offense against a weak defense. In the four games Hurts started last year, he heavily targeted Goedert and Ertz, although the offense looked inefficient. Ertz dealt with a high ankle sprain that caused him to miss five games, and the entire Eagles offense seemed out of sync. Look for Ertz to bounce back in 2021, particularly against the Falcons defense.

Fantasy Football Sleepers Week 1