Using FantasyData’s Advanced Metrics to Find WR Values
There is such a wealth of data out there these days that the current fantasy football enthusiast is way smarter and better prepared than they would have been even four or five years ago. Looking beyond the usual box score information can give fantasy managers a real edge over their counterparts who aren’t willing to put in the work.
FantasyData’s Advanced Efficiency Metrics are powerful tools used to power much of the industry. In this series, I’ve taken a weekly look at wide receivers that stood out in those metrics. Last week, I identified Josh Reynolds, Jakeem Grant, and KJ Hamler as players to watch and they stood out with solid performances.
With 10 weeks now in the books, there is more data to analyze and fewer flukes to skew the overall numbers. Here are some interesting takeaways ahead of Week 11 and how fantasy managers can take advantage of that data.
Quick Links
- Week 11 Player Projections
- Fantasy Football Rankings
- Advanced Metrics
- Advanced Efficiency Metrics
- Red Zone Data
- NFL Snap Counts
- Third Down Stats
Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings) – Many football people were surprised when the Minnesota Vikings traded Stefon Diggs to the Buffalo Bills but that deal ended up being a win/win. Not only is Diggs tearing it up for the Bills, but the Vikings also used the No. 22 pick they acquired (along with picks in the fourth and fifth round) to nab Jefferson who looks like a more-than-adequate replacement. In fact, Jefferson looks like a star in the making who will be rivaling Diggs for years to come. Jefferson is leading all rookies in nearly every receiving category and has already posted 4 100-yard games. Pro Football Focus graded Jefferson as the top wideout in 4-of-9 weeks and as the second-best wide receiver in football versus press coverage. Jefferson also stands out in FantasyData’s true catch rate, where he has yet to commit a drop and has reeled in 6-of-11 contested targets. Additionally, he leads the entire NFL in yards per target (14.1) and yards per route run (3.2).
Jakobi Meyers (New England Patriots) – Speaking of yards per route run, Justin Jefferson is the only player who is ahead of Jakobi Meyers, who boasts an impressive 3.18 figure. Despite being hampered by a subpar New England passing attack, Meyers has excelled since being thrust into the lineup due to injuries. Meyers has recorded 4-plus catches and at least 58 receiving yards in the past four games, while averaging over 9 targets. With a 27.3% target share, Meyers ranks 7th among all NFL wide receivers while also creating 1.82 yards of target separation, which is just above Tyreek Hill. Meyers actually leads the NFL with a 43.3% air yards share and is third with 0.62 fantasy points per route. The only real question now is how the Patriots will align Meyers once Julian Edelman (knee) returns, but the undrafted rookie has undoubtedly earned a permanent role in New England’s offense.
Willie Snead (Baltimore Ravens) – The Baltimore passing attack has also taken a huge step back but Willie Snead has quietly started producing some solid numbers. While Marquise Brown and TE Mark Andrews have dropped off, Snead has snagged 14-of-21 targets for 207 yards and a pair of scores over the Ravens’ past three games. Snead is excelling at getting open, as evidenced by his league-leading 2.52 yards of target separation. He also ranks 9th with 10.8 yards per target and has run 73% of his routes from the slot. That solid slot separation skillset is going to come in handy in Week 11 as Snead will be covered by struggling Titans’ slot corner Desmond King.
Demarcus Robinson (Kansas City Chiefs) – Like Willie Snead, Robinson does an excellent job getting open. Robinson ranks 6th with 2.35 yards of target separation and 15th with 4.31 yards of cushion, but Robinson also struggles to capitalize on those ample opportunities. He ranks 104th with a lowly 0.96 yards per route run average and has a 13.3% drop rate–the second-highest in football. 19 of Robinson’s 30 targets have also come with Sammy Watkins sidelined and with Watkins expected to return in Week 11, Robinson can no longer be counted on to see enough opportunities to remain relevant, even in the deepest of leagues.
DeVante Parker (Miami Dolphins) – Parker’s struggles to beat tough press coverage are well documented and we appear to be seeing that once again in 2020. Out of 94 qualifying wide receivers graded, Parker is next-to-last in cushion afforded from the opposing defender (2.52 yards) and dead last with 0.88 yards of target separation. Parker is a beast in contested catch situations, where he’s caught 12-of-15. Those dozen contested catches trail only Stefon Diggs (13) but appear to be largely attributed to Parker’s inability to consistently get himself open downfield. Parker has only topped 50 receiving yards in one of Miami’s past five contests and hasn’t developed much chemistry yet with QB Tua Tagovailoa. While Miami keeps winning, Parker is becoming a riskier fantasy WR2/3 who is growing increasingly touchdown-dependent in an offense that ranks 18th with 1.7 passing TDs per game.
Keelan Cole (Jacksonville Jaguars) – Don’t expect another two-score game, but Cole has the potential to post some solid fantasy numbers, even if it’s just garbage time production. Laviska Shenault (hamstring) isn’t expected to play, which could help Cole draw even more looks out of the slot, where he’s run the 11th-most snaps in the NFL. Cole has done a good job getting open, with 2.05 yards of separation created every route, which ranks 15th. He also ranks 15th in target accuracy and total routes run (326). The Week 11 matchup with Pittsburgh looks daunting, but the Steelers have actually allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. If Jake Luton can withstand Pittsburgh’s pass rush, there’s a solid chance that Cole can post another decent fantasy game.
Deonte Harris (New Orleans Saints) – The Saints’ offense will look dramatically different for the next handful of games, with Taysom Hill now taking over at quarterback. Hill won’t produce a ton of downfield attempts but could be more prone to rely on safe, underneath passes. One interesting development out of Week 10 was Deonte Harris taking more snaps than Tre’Quan Smith. Harris has run 39% of his snaps out of the slot and has racked up a 79.2% catch rate, which ranks sixth. The Falcons have surrendered the second-most receiving yards to wideouts this season, and if Hill can do a credible job running the offense, Harris could see a handful of targets in a game with an over/under of 51.5.
Cam Sims (Washington Football Team) – An undrafted rookie out of Alabama, Sims has started to make some noise in the nation’s capital. Since Alex Smith took over under center, Sims has played 87% of Washington’s snaps and caught 7-of-9 targets for 164 yards, topping 50 in both games. He hasn’t scored yet, but at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, Sims certainly has the frame to be a potential red-zone weapon. Smith has produced a 144.4 QB Rating when targeting Sims so far, and that’s resulted in a +20.3 EPA (expected points added) and 3.04 fantasy points per target for Sims. If Smith is going to keep chucking the ball 45-50 times per game, Sims has the potential to factor in as a decent WR4/5 option down the stretch. He’s somebody to keep an eye on as the postseason approaches.
Jalen Guyton (Los Angeles Chargers) – If you’re looking for a DFS dart throw, Jalen Guyton could be your guy. Guyton has quietly been on the field for 76.3% of the Chargers’ snaps and run 283 routes, which is 33rd among all wideouts. And those routes tend to be way downfield. Guyton is 20th with 12 deep ball targets and ranks third in the NFL with 19.4 yards per target. In Week 11, Guyton and the Chargers get an intriguing matchup against a haggard Jets’ secondary that has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers and has had major issues covering deep downfield.
Nelson Agholor (Las Vegas Raiders) – Agholor still ranks second among all wideouts with 12.2 yards per target and 19.7 yards per catch but he’s not a player that fantasy managers want to rely on regularly. Agholor’s 10.3% drop rate is sixth-worst and his overall production has been highly erratic. After that solid three-week run that ended in Week 7 with a 5/107/1 line against a very good Tampa secondary, Agholor scored fewer than 2 PPR points in two of the Raiders’ next three games. Also, Agholor dipped to a 60% snap rate last week against Denver while Bryan Edwards earned his highest snap count since returning.
