The running back carousel just keeps on spinning. Going into the offseason there were a lot of questions regarding the running back situation in Green Bay. The writing seemed to be on the wall that the team was ready to move on from Aaron Jones but there was still hope in certain circles that a deal might get done keeping Jones in yellow and green. But when the team signed Josh Jacobs to a four-year, $48,000 contract everyone was just waiting for the other shoe to drop. Unfortunately, (if you’re a Green Bay fan) Jones didn’t go very far, signing a one-year contract with the Minnesota Vikings worth $7,000,000, keeping him in the NFC North. This means that every team in the division, with the exception of the Detroit Lions, will have a different starting running back than they had in 2023, and choosing the best among them is difficult. It will likely come down to which team has the best overall offense and coaching, and until we see these teams in action, all we can do is speculate. On paper, the move to Minnesota seems like a good fit for Jones, but, as is the case with every move, there are always pros and cons for those involved. Let’s take a look at the potential fantasy fallout for Jones and the rest of the Minnesota run game.
Aaron Jones the Fantasy Asset
Over the last five seasons, Jones has finished as a top-12 running back in half-PPR formats four times. The one exception was last season when Jones missed the majority of the first five weeks due to a hamstring injury and then missed an additional three weeks with a sprained MCL. But his efficiency was good, averaging 4.8 yards per carry, which put him eighth among qualified running backs, and even with a diminished workload, Jones still averaged 3.8 targets per game. At the same time, a major component of his fantasy production in years past (touchdowns) fell off significantly. After a three-season stretch between 2019-2021 that saw Jones rank third in rushing touchdowns among running backs, he struggled to find the end zone last season, whether on the ground or through the air. However, the last time we saw Jones he reminded us why he was such a coveted fantasy asset in the first place. From Week 16 through the divisional round of the playoffs, Jones had five games straight of over 100 yards rushing, with his best game coming against Dallas in the wild-card game where he garnered 21 carries for 118 yards and three touchdowns, adding one catch for 13 yards. With no health concerns coming into the season, we could see the former Packer return to form and find success in a new situation. There is some reason for caution, but that risk is baked into any recommendation to draft him. Jones should be able to maintain fantasy relevance as an RB2.
Is Aaron Jones a Good Fit for the Vikings
With no one to significantly challenge him in Minnesota, Jones should be the day-one starter for a team that has been searching for stability at running back over the last two seasons following Dalvin Cook’s departure. While the Vikings’ offensive line and skill position talent rival what Jones had in Green Bay, the quarterback situation remains a major question mark. With Sam Darnold potentially taking the starting snaps, Jones might not see the same scoring opportunities he enjoyed with Aaron Rodgers. Although there are reports that they are likely to trade up in the draft to solve that problem, but whether it’s Darnold or a rookie, the opportunities to put points on the board will take a step backward. This lack of a proven passer could lower the fantasy ceiling for Jones. Still, as the presumed lead back, Jones should have enough volume to keep him very much on the fantasy landscape. He’ll also get to face his old team twice a year, and who doesn’t love a good “revenge game.” Besides the obvious offensive weaknesses of the Vikings, age and durability could be the biggest issue facing Jones. He will turn 30 years old in December and is coming off a season that saw him miss six games due to various injuries. He did finish out the season strong, reminding us how good he can be when healthy, and in the right situation (which I believe Minnesota could be) he would be a sneaky value in the mid to late rounds. Of course, it’s also just as likely that we will start to see a decline for the aging star, leaving us all frustrated and disappointed with the final result.
What This Means for the Rest of the Vikings Backfield
Before this move, none of the Vikings’ running backs were that relevant, but with the departure of Alexander Mattison to the Las Vegas Raiders, Chandler has the inside track to be the direct backup to Jones. Still, any way you slice it, the presence of Jones is not good for Chandler. Last season, even though it took injuries to both Mattison and Cam Akers for Chandler to get his shot, he made the most of those opportunities, displaying both a solid floor and a decent ceiling. His time as the lead back included efforts of 24.7 FPs (RB4), 7.7 (RB41), 9.4 (R31), and 10.9 (RB26). Those numbers won’t make anyone too excited about drafting him in fantasy. While Chandler has never been a particularly relevant fantasy player, the hope of viewing him as anything but a handcuff to Jones is gone. Neither Mattison nor Akers are as talented as Jones, which does not bode well for Chandler getting on the field unless Jones is injured. Yet, that’s where the majority of Chandler’s relevance could come from. As I mentioned, Jones will be 30 this December and missed time in 2023, but he has also missed at least two games in five of seven seasons. If that did happen, though, I’m not sure how excited that should make you about Chandler. There are questions surrounding the Vikings offense that give me some pause when it comes to Jones. These concerns would still be there for Chandler, and he would have to overcome them without being equipped with Jones’ talent. If Jones is a low-end RB2 this season, then Chandler is more of a depth piece. A top 40ish option who could show a decent return on that price if he were to ever get the chance at the lead role.
Conclusion
There’s always a risk with putting too much faith in a player who we were starting to sour on just because they find a new home. Aaron Jones should see as much volume as his body can handle in Minnesota, which has often been a great recipe for fantasy success. Unfortunately, he finds himself in a less explosive Vikings offense so counting on him to replicate the ceiling we’ve seen from him in the past would not be wise. Regardless of who is under center, I do expect the Vikings to improve upon their 23.0 run plays per game from last season, but it’s hard to know how successful Jones will be with those opportunities. For now, I would probably avoid him at his current sixth-round ADP, but if you can get him a round or two later, then he might be a solid floor option as long as he stays healthy.
