While free-agent RB signings have slowed down a bit over the last couple of days, things started quickly when the free-agent period officially started on March 11th. High-profile players like Joe Mixon, Tony Pollard, Derrick Henry, and Saquon Barkley all found new homes. Not to be left out, though, the Chicago Bears agreed to terms with ex-Eagles RB D’Andre Swift on a three-year deal worth $24 million. Reports state that Swift received an offer from the Eagles but still opted for the Bears. On paper, this looks like a great fit, as long as Swift can remain healthy. Still, the question remains just what this will do for the fantasy value of Swift and the running backs currently on the Bears’ roster. Let’s dive in and take a deeper look.
D’Andre Swift the Fantasy Asset
First, let’s look at Swift as if existing in a vacuum from a purely fantasy football standpoint. The Lions drafted Swift in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, and ever since coming into the league has dealt with injuries that kept him sidelined much of his time with Detroit. Still, he ended as a fantasy RB2 in half-PPR, scoring on a per-game basis every season from 2020-2022. Then with the move to Philadelphia last season it looked like Swift was destined to remain buried on the Eagles’ running back depth chart. Still, he ended up taking over the starting role en route to 1,049 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 229 carries while adding 39 receptions, 214 yards, and another score through the air. This production was good enough for an RB24 finish. All of this with a QB in Jalen Hurts who tends to vulture TDs via the “tush push” and isn’t known for using his running backs in the passing game. We still don’t know who will be under center for the Bears come week 1, but regardless there is no reason to think Swift isn’t capable of finding success as the lead back with his new team.
Is Swift a Good Fit for the Bears
In Chicago, Swift also joins a running back room that already includes Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. Both players proved to be capable backs last season when given the chance, yet neither was a dominant presence which likely prompted the move to sign Swift. Given the contract, Swift received it’s hard to imagine that he isn’t coming in with the expectation of leading this backfield, but it’s unclear how much value that will have in fantasy. If the Bears continue to be inconsistent on offense then Swift’s production could take a hit. Still, Swift should be heavily involved both as a runner and a passer, filling a need the Bears have lacked for some time. Last season both Herbert and Johnson ran pretty well averaging 4.6 YPC and 4.3 YPC respectively, but neither surpassed 40 targets. This provides plenty of opportunity to take on that role, potentially giving him a safe floor, and he’ll need it. The Bears’ offensive line is still a work in progress, meaning his efficiency could take a step back, so a pass-catching role is going to be essential to the success of Swift and the team as a whole. This will be especially true if the Bears do trade Fields and roll into the season with a rookie QB running the show. Another thing to consider is that the Bears have a new offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron. Waldron thrived as a play-caller for the Seattle Seahawks last season in a system that allowed the RB to thrive. Waldron made Kenneth Walker a must-start option when healthy and Swift has the chance to find similar success. If Swift can demand 50+ targets in 2024, he could produce as a high-end RB2 with upside, especially in any type of PPR format. Swift is a top-20 running back for me this season.
What This Means for Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson
Adding someone like Swift, who is coming off a breakout season for the Eagles is not great for Herbert or Johnson. It’s clear that GM Ryan Poles was not comfortable going into 2024 with them leading the charge. Herbert and Johnson will most likely be competing for the RB2 spot. There is the possibility that we have the dreaded “three-headed monster” but the Bears signed Swift for a reason, and it wasn’t to give him equal playing time to the players they already have on their roster. Whoever wins the backup job can be drafted as a late-round fantasy pick in the event that Swift suffers an injury or if the Bears’ run game is highly productive in a “rising tide lifts all boats” scenario. The odd man out would be a flier at best or a potential waiver wire pickup during the season. This disappoints any manager who chose to invest in either Herbert or Johnson in dynasty formats. In redraft, it’s not as big of a concern since those drafts won’t start happening until around August. But if you are in a dynasty league and drafted Johnson as a rookie, assuming it was only a matter of time until he takes over this backfield, you can’t feel good about that investment right now. If you’re in win-now mode, kicking the tires on a trade for Swift might be worth it. He likely won’t single-handedly win you the championship but he could be a solid and consistent contributor. Both Herbert and Johnson are holds until we know how the situation plays out, but I wouldn’t expect to deploy them very much this season. Both running backs should be valued in the RB 3/4 range and are still within my top-50 RBs with upside in the event of a Swift injury.
Conclusion
Swift is going from a near-perfect situation in Philadelphia to a less-than-ideal one in Chicago. His production could take a slight hit, especially if the Bears choose to reset the clock by trading QB Justin Fields and selecting Caleb Williams with the No. 1 pick. But that doesn’t mean that there isn’t a path to fantasy success in 2024. Swift will simply have to rely on a role in the passing game and the run game. But the Bears went out and signed him for a reason and they are going to make him, along with D.J. Moore, a focal point of the offensive attack. GM Ryan Poles looked at his roster and saw a need to upgrade the running back position, and based on what we saw from all three running backs last season, that is exactly what Poles did. While it may be too much to ask Swift to repeat his career year in 2023, he shouldn’t have to be as productive to be a valuable RB2 in 2024.
