This has been quite the offseason. There have been a lot of big moves with names we’ve grown accustomed to seeing in one uniform now wearing another. While many current or former fantasy stalwarts have switched teams there might not be any bigger name, or better match, than Derrick Henry going to the Ravens. Going into the offseason, there were a lot of question marks surrounding Henry. Will the Titans keep him? Will he leave for greener pastures? Will there even be a market for a running back of advancing age who has dealt with injury and seen a slight decline in productivity? Well, we got the answers to those questions. No. Yes. And yes. But with the move to Baltimore, even more questions arose. While it looks like Henry will have very little competition for touches, the question remains just what type of role offensive coordinator Todd Monken envisions for the team’s shiny new toy. The Ravens still view Henry as a player with something left in the tank, but just how successful he’ll be remains to be seen. Still, regardless of how productive Henry ultimately is, the move to Baltimore will have fantasy implications all across the board. Let’s dive right in and take a look at some of the fallout from this signing.
Derrick Henry the Fantasy Asset
Derrick Henry has been a fantasy stud four of the last five years, finishing in the top 8 each year and the top 4 three times. As recently as last year, Henry was still having an RB1-type season, logging 1167 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns (tied for fifth.) He did all this despite being part of a struggling offense with inconsistent quarterback play and an offensive line that ranked among the worst in the NFL. Henry has also rushed for 1,000 or more yards in five of his last six seasons. The only outlier was his 2021 season when he missed half the season due to injury, but even in that season, he managed to tally 937 rushing yards, despite playing in fewer than eight complete games, putting him on pace to potentially surpass 2,000 yards in back-to-back seasons. He followed 2021 and an offseason of doubters who were concerned about his age and previous injury by running for 1538 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. While those numbers are impressive, he still wasn’t the same guy we have grown accustomed to watching. The volume was there. Henry has led the NFL in four of the past five seasons, with that injury-plagued 2021 season being the exception. But his 4.2 yards per carry was tied for a career-low and his 68.6 yards per game was his lowest total since 2017, so expecting his numbers to spike back up due to a new location may be a bit much.
Is Derrick Henry a Good Fit for the Ravens?
When the news broke that Tony Pollard was joining the Tennessee Titans, it was only a matter of time before we heard news about Henry moving on. When that news came and we learned that Henry was signing a two-year deal worth up to $20 million with the Ravens, fantasy enthusiasts had images of Henry returning to elite fantasy status. We rarely get excited about or seek out a 30-year-old running back, but Henry is a bit of a unicorn and has proven us all wrong in the past. Not only that but, at least on paper, Baltimore seems like the perfect landing spot for a running back like Henry. No team runs more than the Ravens. Their 2,661 total rushing yards led the league in 2023. However, many of those yards were due to mobile quarterback Lamar Jackson who led the team with 821 rushing yards. But unlike the Eagles, who give Jalen Hurts every opportunity to vulture touchdowns, the running backs tend to get those opportunities in Baltimore. Gus Edwards finished with 13 rushing touchdowns last season which was tied for the third-most in the NFL with the Lions’ David Montgomery. In total, the Ravens running back room accounted for 20 rushing touchdowns.
Now Edwards is with the Chargers, J.K. Dobbins is a free agent, Justice Hill is Justice Hill, and 2nd-year Keaton Mitchell is returning from an ACL tear. Still, even though Henry will be at the top of the pecking order, the situation in Baltimore is a bit of a mixed bag. He’ll have a better offensive line than he did in Tennessee, and Ravens running backs have generally been efficient because of the threat of Lamar Jackson’s legs. Those legs could be a problem though for Henry’s overall production. With Jackson still playing a key part in the run game and the uncertainty of how big of a role either Keaton Mitchell or Justice Hill (or both) will have, it’s hard to imagine Henry seeing 70% of the team’s rush attempts. He should still surpass 1,000 rushing yards and see the majority of the goal-line work, but at 30 years old his days of elite-level RB1 status are likely behind him, especially since he offers very little in the passing and now finds himself on a team where he will no longer be the sole offensive threat. A mid-range RB2 finish seems more probable.
What This Means for the Rest of the Ravens Run Game
This would be a much tougher call and more interesting conversation if Gus Edwards were still in Baltimore. John Harbaugh, and the Ravens organization in general, always seemed to have a soft spot for him and as a fan and team favorite, if Edwards were still on the team he would undoubtedly get significant work. With Keaton Mitchell and Justice Hill being the only other running backs on the roster this becomes far less interesting. Even with him being on the wrong side of 30, Henry is easily the cream of the crop here and will see the bulk of the running back carries. This would relegate the rest of the players in the running back room to stash or handcuff status, at best. More probable is that Mitchell and Hill will start the 2024 fantasy season on the waiver wire. Mitchell still carries some value in dynasty formats and is worth placing on your taxi squad in case of a Henry injury or to take a wait-and-see approach in case the team’s long-term plans for Mitchell become more apparent. But that’s it. I would not be counting on any Ravens running back not named Derrick Henry this season. Even Henry gains far more value if you can get him after the first three rounds. Drafting him before that is a bit of a reach and shows a lot of trust in a 30-year-old running back in a new situation. The truly engaging question regarding how Henry fits into the Ravens’ run game is how he and Lamar Jackson will co-exist. It seems unlikely that adding Henry means Jackson will no longer use his legs. Jackson’s running ability is part of what makes him and the Ravens so dynamic. It’s also a significant reason the run game has been so successful. When opposing defenses have to account for Jackson taking off with the ball it opens up running lanes for the running backs as well.
I predict Henry will see fewer carries than we are used to, but his efficiency will increase. This will lead to solid RB2 numbers with some touchdown upside. Jackson will still be a set-it-and-forget-it QB1. The rest of the running backs on this roster can be forgotten, at least for now.
Conclusion
The Ravens and Henry are a good fit both in real football and fantasy. Henry is an immediate upgrade to what the Ravens currently have in the running back room and will help the offense take a step forward in 2024. Preparing to stop Jackson and Henry is going to be a problem for opposing defenses, not to mention the talents of Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, and the rest of the Ravens’ passing game. Still, some caution is warranted when approaching Henry come draft time. Gone are the days of Henry being a clear-cut draft pick in the first three rounds. I do not doubt that some managers will be willing to take the chance on him in that range, but I would much prefer him after the first three rounds. There is too much risk due to his age and some of the uncertainties of the situation to justify investing a high draft pick in him. Henry will still have value as an RB2, with some upside, for your fantasy team, and if he outperforms that, then great, but I would not count on him to be an RB1 for your team unless you choose to wait on RBs and can grab him in the fourth round or later. I feel this signing will pay slightly bigger dividends for the Ravens than it will for your fantasy team.
