2021 Bengals Value Picks
Last season, the Bengals relied on volume, not efficiency. In Joe Burrow’s ten games played, they averaged 39.3 (No. 11) Team Pass Plays Per Game with 25.7 (No. 17) Team Run Plays Per Game. Unsurprisingly, the Bengals played from behind and had a -3.51 (No. 24) Game Script, which translated into a high passing volume.
Burrow lacked efficiency evidenced by 6.2 (No. 25) Adjusted Yards Per Attempt and a -20.9 (No. 34) Production Premium yet averaged 17.8 (No. 16) fantasy points per game. With Joe Mixon healthy for six games, he garnered a high 81.5% (No. 2) Opportunity Share. More evidence that they relied on volume yet lacked efficiency given Mixon’s 4.0 (No. 58) yards per touch and -15.8 (No. 67) Production Premium.
Once Mixon went down, Gio Bernard (finally) earned some opportunities, but the weak Bengals’ offensive line plus running back inefficiencies didn’t help much either. Pro Football Focus ranks the Bengals offensive line No. 25 in the league per Steve Palazzolo. After the NFL Draft, I noted in a fantasy stock piece that the Bengals made the sexy pick by selecting Ja’Marr Chase instead of taking offensive lineman Penei Sewell. It seemed logical to protect Burrow with Sewell, but I guess not.
Joe Burrow
We’ll keep this simple. Sure, there’s some concern with Joe Burrow recovering from his knee surgery in Week 11 last season. However, Burrow should still provide back-end QB1 value in 2021. The addition of Ja’Marr Chase and a healthy Joe Mixon should help the Bengals’ offensive efficiency. Even if Burrow struggles out of the gate, Burrow’s talent and offensive skill players maintained outside of Giovani Bernard, yet they added an elite receiver prospect. If you’re worried about Burrow’s injury, pair him with a Kirk Cousins type for some safety.
Joe Mixon Bounce Back Season?
After an injury-riddled 2020 season, Joe Mixon still averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game, which would have ranked him No. 11 amongst running backs if he qualified. When healthy, Mixon commanded an 81.5% (No. 2) Opportunity Share and averaged 4.3 targets per game. If we pace that out over a 16 game season, Mixon could have reached a career-high 68 targets.
With Mixon on the shelf, the Bengals turned to Giovani Bernard and Samaje Perine. Bernard lands with the Buccaneers to add uncertainty to their backfield, and Perine remains the only relevant running back left. Rookie Chris Evans boasts elite or near-elite burst and agility scores evidenced by a 132.4 (94th-percentile) Burst Score and 10.99 (92nd-percentile) Agility Score. However, Evans lacks relevancy unless Mixon suffers an injury, given their usage with Mixon.
Per Underdog ADP, Mixon sits in the middle of the second round as RB12 going around DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Gibson, D.K. Metcalf, and A.J. Brown. Depending on what you’re looking for in round two, Mixon’s ADP is fair, given he expects to dominate the opportunities in the rushing and receiving game. The receivers performed better with Mixon healthy, evidenced by the RotoViz Game Splits App with Higgins and Mixon. Boyd’s production looks almost identical with and without Mixon as well.
Which Bengals Receivers Should We Draft?
Any of them. Even take Auden Tate. Okay, maybe not Auden Tate, but the top three have higher ADPs given their talent and opportunity. One of the more intriguing questions in the offseason involves which Bengals wide receiver to draft? Is it lauded rookie Ja’Marr Chase? Or second-year receiver Tee Higgins? We can’t forget about slot receiver Tyler Boyd, who struggled last season. However, Boyd finished as a top-30 receiver in 2019 and inside the top-20 in 2019.
Ja’Marr Chase
Ja’Marr Chase boasts an above-average prospect profile with 84 receptions for 1,780 receiving yards and 20 receiving touchdowns during the historic National Championship season for LSU. Don’t forget Burrow and Chase played together at LSU along with the 2020 rookie breakout Justin Jefferson. Chase opted out of the 2020 season, so we didn’t see how he would fare with a different quarterback and team context.
It’s hard not to drool over Chase’s prospect profile with a 33.4% (64th-percentile) College Dominator Rating and 19.5 (77th-percentile) Breakout Age. Even Chase’s workout metrics look sexy with a 106.8 (86th-percentile) Speed Score, 135.7 (97th-percentile) Burst Score, and 10.95 (82nd-percentile) Agility Score. Granted that workout metrics and analytics aren’t the only important metrics to consider with receiver prospects, but Chase checks a ton of boxes. That said, the helium with Chase kept his ADP high as WR21 at pick 42.6. Fantasy managers want to hit on the next Justin Jefferson.
Tee Higgins
A few picks behind Chase as WR22, we have the second-year receiver, Tee Higgins. Based on some research by Blair Andrews of RotoViz, I wrote an article on other second-year receivers primed to breakout in 2021. Although I didn’t discuss Higgins, the same research and premise apply that receivers typically see a positive increase in target share and raw target totals in year two. That said, we expect Higgins’ 20.2% (No. 36) target share and 107 (No. 28) total targets to increase in 2021. Depending on the league size and roster build, target Higgins as a WR2/3 on fantasy squads.
Tyler Boyd
Amongst the primary Bengals receivers, Tyler Boyd holds the latest ADP as WR35 at pick 71.7. Boyd played the 4th most snaps out of the slot (546) or a 76.6% slot snap share. After the 13th highest target share (24.9%) in 2019, Boyd’s target share dropped to 20.9% (No. 34) in 2020. We noticed a slight dip in production, with 56.1 receiving yards per game down from 65.3 receiving yards in 2019. Efficiency metrics look almost identical with 7.6 (No. 76) yards per target in 2020 compared to 7.1 (No. 77) in 2019. However, the Bengals relied on volume, not efficiency, as we noted earlier.
Do the Bengals Tight Ends Matter?
Only in deeper leagues or tight end premium leagues should we consider a Bengals tight end. C.J. Uzomah flashed the typically tight end line of four catches for 40 plus yards for two weeks before tearing his Achilles that ended his season. Drew Sample took over as the lead tight end and flashed some receiving chops after coming into the league as a blocking tight end out of the University of Washington.
Sample earned a 9.4% (No. 35) target share with a 4.3 (No. 40) average target distance. However, Sample ranked first with a 1.54 Receiver Air Conversion Ratio (RACR), which indicates the receiving yards a receiver converts or creates based on the air yards they earned. This metric came from Josh Hermsmeyer, the creator of AirYards.com, a quality resource to find similar data.
We expect the Bengals offense to run through Joe Mixon, the three wide receivers, then trickle down for a small target share to the tight end position. In 12-team leagues, the Bengals’ tight ends don’t warrant a priority in drafts.
Will the Bengals Boom or Bust in 2021?
Based on the ADP of their players with four players inside the top-80 picks and Joe Burrow sitting right out of the top-100, it appears fantasy managers believe the team will boom. I would agree and plan to target Joe Mixon and their receivers during drafts.
Based on the ADP for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, fantasy managers will need to choose one or the other unless one of them falls. However, it seems unlikely that they will drop, given the offseason hype. Per the Bengals beat writers of The Athletic, Joe Burrow has struggled in training camp with turnovers and incompletions. Plus, the beat writers speculated that Burrow appeared to show hesitancy with his knee. Those concerns will likely cause their ADPs to dip, but that presents an opportunity to pounce on the market shift.
Above, we have the Bengals projections per FantasyData. The volume should remain high, assuming their defense still struggles, which favors their pass-catchers and Mixon with his receiving ability. Expect their offense to take a step forward and boom in 2021 with the added talent of Ja’Marr Chase and a healthy Joe Mixon. If their offensive efficiency can improve as well, that will only help their production in 2021. However, a couple of concerns surround the Bengals’ offensive line and Burrow’s injury recovery. Overall, I’m optimistic in this offense providing several fantasy-friendly and reliable options for redraft leagues.
